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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,982 ✭✭✭acequion


    Agree with every word there. I also live in the constituency and people outside Kerry seem to under estimate the efficiency of the Healy Rae machine.

    I didn't give my high preferences to either of them but they did feature on my ballot. I would often disagree with them but I do respect them. A viewpoint shared by many in Kerry going by how well they polled.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭gossamerfabric


    If FF/FG have a choice of rural Independents who can verbalise what they require to stay "bought" for a full term and parties with marxist beliefs they will go with the rural independents and the country will be better for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,172 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    It adds a human touch.

    Terry Prone was on RTE today and she mentioned how he's the only politician who will add a bit of humour into a interview, and others could learn from that and not be so uptight.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 10,549 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Fair play to him for being responsive. That’s a big positive but the station staff are all being paid for their service. Nobody is taking them for granted. I’d actually say that by calling around he’s being fairly disingenuous. I’m generally put off by showy stuff though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Did youse miss the tweeter ageeing with the reply?

    sf.JPG





    The election was this week, not in 2022 or 23. A lot happened and they ran a super campaign to get back to where they are. Context is everything



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  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We'll have to agree to disagree.

    Saying that, his son called to my house (only caller to my house in the campaign). He was sorry he called to me. He's nothing but a thug. 😃

    Did I hear Catherine Martin is gone. I suppose people didn't like her and her hubby were objecting to houses



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,312 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Hyperbole much? In 2002 Fine Gael lost over 20 seats while in opposition and Fianna Fail came within a whisker of an overall majority.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭McBain11


    O'Gorman maybe even a minister again. What! Probably the most outlandish comment on here during this while campaign.

    O'Gorman will be blessed to hang onto his seat, imo he won't. At a national level, Greens will disappear into the ether after this election. Won't be a peep out of them. They were on a hiding to nothing going into this election, but the final nail in their coffin was making O'Gorman GP leader a few months ago. Whatever people think of sleepy Eamon Ryan, there is some likeability factor there. There isn't an ounce of that with O'Gorman. I'd actually say if there was poll done on the most hated politician in Ireland over the past 10/20 years, O'Gorman would poll extremely well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,510 ✭✭✭Jeff2


    So there is a quota of how many women should be voted in.....

    Pick the people for the job not the gender they are. Ffs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    What makes you think he won't hang onto his seat?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,312 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    There's a quota for the number to run for parties to claim the full expenses. 40% minimum of male or female candidates I think is the figure.

    What are you talking about though?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,172 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    So there is a quota of how many women should be voted in.....

    No there is a quota of how many women need to be nominated by parties to run for election.

    There is no quota for the number that can be elected, or "voted in" as you said.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭Stacksofwacks


    Hutch comes across as less arrogant and pretentious than most of the standard politicians, I dont agree with his lifestyle but if he gets in and gets elected fairly then good luck to him



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,578 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The context Francie is that beginning of the year SF were on 26% in the polls, (as high as 36% at one stage), and noboby fcuk it up other than themselves with MLMD dropping over 12% since the last GE and with 40 of 43 constituencies FP votes in, they are 5.4% down on their 2020 vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭McBain11


    O'Gorman is in 5th place in a 5 seater. It will be a dog fight for him to hang onto that seat looking at the numbers. Unless Labour and Soc Dems candidates transfer to him in decent numbers if eliminated before him, there's a good chance he won't make it.

    The Green Party have been destroyed. I highly doubt that one of the most hated figures I can ever recall in Irish politics (I'm voting in elections for 25 plus years now) will be hugely transfer friendly, even if traditionally a couple of party's voters there would usually give GP high preference on their ballot.

    What makes you think he definitely will retain his seat? I won't comment on the O'Gorman minister comment, that's either complete wind up stuff or drink induced.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There are 1,200 votes in Nolan (FF) and Currie (FG surplus) that will go mostly to O'Gorman. He already has a 500 vote lead over 6th place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The election was in November and they were as low as 16%

    No doubt they are down from the last GE but context again, they hit 16% in opinion polls and ran a great campaign to recover. Not a single pundit/analyst saying anything different.

    It's confirmed now there are 3 parties here leading the way, it's not two any longer. Dynamic continues to change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,578 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Not a fan of Michael Healy Rae but f you think there are 18,000 stupid people in Kerry I would hazard a guess that you haven`t spent much time in Kerry or know anybody from Kerry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    I only got involved in the thread this week as the election grew close and as the counts started but I've seen enough of the nonsense you posted for a good while. You've clearly been rejected, the people aren't buying what your selling, the sooner you realise it the better for everyone involved in the party to be quite honest. Nobody but SF has messed it up for themselves here. This was literally the best run they've had at an election ever and it's been royaly messed up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well I'm not going anywhere, and I doubt SF are either.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You have spent the last six months telling everyone on here that the only poll that matters is the election and that it can only be compared to the previous election.

    Now, when SF have taken a hammering, you are changing your tune. You are referencing opinion polls you derided, you are referencing a recovery from local and European elections.

    Pundits on RTE spent the last twenty minutes talking about Sinn Fein's bad day out, no other way to spin that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 566 ✭✭✭Avon8


    5 seats in Mayo and 3 of them currently looking to be FG.

    Seriously, what on earth is going on in Mayo? I wouldn't even be that against FG but do these people realize what they're voting for? In 2011 FG got 4 out of 5 seats. This time it's looking very possible that it'll be 3 out of 5

    Mayo is one of the most impoverished districts in the country. Somehow FGs stronghold is DBS, Dun laoighaire and arsehole impoverished Mayo. It's literally turkeys voting for xmas and has been for the last 25 years



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭McBain11


    If FF and FG surpluses were actually going to GP in decent numbers, I think they'd be doing a lot better than currently are - they are on zero seats currently with a real chance of ending on zero seats.

    By all accounts FF and FG have done everything possible on the doorsteps to make sure that transfers go to each other, don't go to SF obviously and also they have taken a massive crap on the GP and completely abandoned their Government partner during this election campaign.

    Now that's not to say that O'Gorman won't pick up some votes from the surpluses (the electorate are always liable to do strange things), but I wouldn't be counting on it. Considering the government parties were hinting at a Labour third wheel in government over the past few weeks, I can see Ruth Coppinger and John Walsh getting over the line in the end.

    I believe the greens will end with zero seats and most definitely won't have a minister in the next government, jaysus!

    btw, Pat Leahy on rte just gave O'Gorman a grimacing maybe in terms of retaining his seat. They can see what's coming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    They’re literally performing as one of the worst main opposition parties ever.

    They aren't going anywhere quickly at this rate. It's literally a terrible weekend for SF and that can't be avoided no matter how much you try



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Very few situations yet where the Green Party were the only government party left for FF and FG to transfer to. We will see tomorrow, but I am confident he will make it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 324 ✭✭Kiteview


    Now, now, it was a vote for “change”. 😀



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    That's your opinion.
    I am not going to argue like some would do that a decline in vote share is not a decline.
    They lost ground no doubt but it has been a very good campaign and they will be back as strong as ever in any new Dáil.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,578 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The reality is that SF dropping from 36% t0 16% was down to nobody but themselves.

    There were 3 parties leading the way 2020, and for all MLMD talk even today of breaking the mould, with just 3 constituencies still to declare their first preference vote it looks increasingly likely that SF will have dropped a higher percentage of their 2020 vote than either FF or FG.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I am hoping that the next few election campaigns go as well for Sinn Fein as this one, would put them somewhere around PBP levels in terms of relevance. If you think this was a good campaign for Sinn Fein, I have some Moon territory to lease to you.

    Sinn Fein are likely to end up in opposition again, not sure if their "stars" have the stomach for that.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well I’d argue that the issues caused by the mess the government made of immigration caused SF’s biggest issue.

    That was pivotal for them. I said a while back that I would rather they didn’t get into government than chase tgat vote.
    They didn’t and the performance of the far-right vindicated them.



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