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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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Comments

  • #3782
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,080 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906004#Comment_122906004

    She wont be leader in 12 months time.



  • #3783
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,399 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Looking like possibly 3 SF TDs in Dublin south central, very impressive if it happens.



  • #3784
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,149 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907061#Comment_122907061

    Co Taoiseach 🤣

    In this case its most vote management

    In leos just not likeable

    Have there ever been this many new FG and FF TDs?



  • #3785
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,080 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906026#Comment_122906026

    I remember you saying the same thing in 2020. You were delighted at the time as you thought that SF would definitely get in next time, well almost 5 years later, it looks like SF are the biggest losers in this election….

    DOH!



  • #3786
    The wonderfish
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 695 ✭✭✭The wonderfish


    Just watching the RTE coverage, jeez Katie Hannon is so poor, be great if either Claire Brock or Clara O’Doherty could be drafted in now that they have left virgin media, be some upgrade on the biro pointing, cue card loving katie



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  • #3787
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,773 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907063#Comment_122907063

    I think there will be a lot of attention on the fall of SF's FPV when the dust settles. A 5% + fall in FPV share for an opposition party up against a Government that has essentially been in power in one form or another for over 13 years isn't fantastic. Especially when you see incumbent Government's being turfed out of office all over Europe.

    Sinn Féin will be worried that the mantle for 'change' could be stolen from them as the likes of Labour make a comeback, Social Democrats consolidate and Aontú take some of the more fringe element of the electorate. The Local Elections showed us they are vulnerable to extremist Independent rag tag elements too. Like, Gerry Hutch is about to take a seat in Dublin Central that really should be taken by Mary Lou's running mate. If you said 12 months ago that Mary Lou wouldn't bring in a running mate you would have been laughed at.

    They can spin it whatever way they want but the Local Elections demonstrated that Sinn Féin do not have as strong a grassroots base as they let on they have. The tide can go out as quickly as it comes in. I think they will make a play to try and enter Government with Fianna Fáil as they need to be seen to be able to actually effect change.



  • #3788
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,800 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907101#Comment_122907101

    ah Katie hannon is grand. She’s not at a desk though and it’s a bit awkward.



  • #3789
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,399 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907101#Comment_122907101

    Sarah McInerney is the best of them all imo.



  • #3790
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,080 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906158#Comment_122906158

    Pearse will just shout at people. Can you imagine him in a campaign? Also, being a Donegal TD is a disadvantage.



  • #3791
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,080 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    True!

    https://twitter.com/AnMailleach/status/1862916036548284427


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  • #3792
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906785#Comment_122906785

    She told Virgin the same earlier

    They tried to point out the election and the result but she seemed more interested in just talking spin

    Similar to when she couldn't anser a qeustion on any policies in the debates



  • #3793
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907081#Comment_122907081

    I think every other party in Ireland will want MLMD to continue as leader

    She has managed to f**k up every election she has been involved with so far for SF

    Another 4-5 elections and her making a mess of it will keep all the others happies



  • #3794
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,149 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907106#Comment_122907106

    The voting system isn't setup for massive change like that

    Like you have a party here topping the poles which ruined the country

    It's going to be multi party government from now on, especially with the parties being so close ideologically basically all being the same party at the end of the day



  • #3795
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,773 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907141#Comment_122907141

    Indeed. She's using the talking points that were devised last night by their Director of Communications when they saw the exit poll results, she clearly isn't reacting to the reality that is actually emerging in count centres across the country. That talking point will have fallen away by morning. It won't wash in the days ahead.



  • #3796
    Allinall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭Allinall


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907154#Comment_122907154

    Which is a good thing.



  • #3797
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,157 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    From what is being projected it looks like the exit poll got it seriously wrong on FF yet again.

    If these latest projections are close to being correct it looks as if FF + FG could make up the numbers between them or just be a handful short, which would greatly increase their options on a third wheel.



  • #3798
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,773 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907154#Comment_122907154

    There is no reason why Sinn Féin shouldn't have outperformed their 2020 result and be in lead position to form a Government. It has all fallen apart in the last 12 months for the party.



  • #3799
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,149 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907164#Comment_122907164

    Which bit? I don't think ff should ever be in government

    FG are heartless but have some responsibility

    On the status q, yeah the vivid thing showed its best to have a load of boring lads in charge

    But we could just get rid of the whole election thing so



  • #3800
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,604 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Gerry Hutch has widened his lead over Marie Sherlock getting over 200 votes from Mary Lou's surplus and Sherlock only getting 26.

    He's proving to be very transfer friendly.



  • #3801
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907158#Comment_122907158

    If you watch a SF TD over the last 4 years, unless they have a sheet of paper to read off they are lost

    Like Mary Lou in interviews etc, its just a rehersed political broadcast and go off the questions she expects and it falls to pieces

    Its look like she was given a few rehersed speechs to learn off, has them and after that has nothing. The Virgin person was baffled as she waffled on and he kept trying to explain the results of the election mean she is talking nonsense

    When he asked her, how SF had managed to lose such a commanding position in the polls to this, the answer had nothing to do with question.



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  • #3802
    The wonderfish
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 695 ✭✭✭The wonderfish


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907111#Comment_122907111

    she is always awkward and fidgety, very hard to watch, way more suited to radio… don’t know how she has managed to swing being one of the anchors and Sarah Mc who is by far the stronger tv presenter is put on radio….but that’s rte 🙄



  • #3803
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,604 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Loads and loads of nutters getting less than 100 votes.



  • #3804
    Kiteview
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 353 ✭✭Kiteview


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906785#Comment_122906785

    Circa 20% of the vote isn’t a mandate to form a government with left wing parties.



  • #3805
    dulpit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,129 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906967#Comment_122906967

    I've been listening on radio all day, flicking between radio 1 and newstalk. Their radio coverage hasn't been great. I've heard background chatter, whispering, delays and producer voices multiple times.

    Newstalk has largely been excellent (although I obviously skipped the coverage while Ciara Kelly and Shane Coleman was hosting). They do such a good job competing with rte on radio, it really makes the lack of competition of TV apparent.



  • #3806
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,080 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907106#Comment_122907106

    I agree.

    SF are quick out of the traps spinning this election as as victory.

    But in reality, the botched it completely. From mid-high 30's in the polls 18-24 months ago, to less than 20% of the FPV?

    A disaster tbh, considering FG have been in power since 2011. You have to go back to Dev/Lemass for a party to have 4 terms in office. FF going for a 2nd stint on the bounce and Labour/SD's eating SF's lunch with the soft center left, while working-class vote is going to Indo's.



  • #3807
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,080 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    "SF are the weakest opposition party in Europe"

    Paschal sticking the knife in, but he is correct.

    https://twitter.com/janeematthews/status/1862963057065886034


  • #3808
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,604 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122906967#Comment_122906967

    It's missing a strong presenter like Brian Farrell or Bryan Dobson.

    Miriam, David and Katie fairly light weight.

    Plus RTE sticking with their traditional bulletins just as declarations are being made which is always annoying.



  • #3809
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,149 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907171#Comment_122907171

    The incumbents haven't fucked anything up majorly though

    That's the issue



  • #3810
    squonk
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    To be fair to MLMD SFs problems are not all her fault. The party overall have very flimsy policies that aren’t grounded in reality. They sound nice but when the time comes to vote people think twice. What is on her is not being able to stand behind her policies and actually debate them. Seeing a party leader dance around questions in manifesto items isn’t good. It’s somewhat forgivable for a regular parliamentary party member but not the leader.

    If I was an SF party strategist I’d send clowns like O’Broin off to rework their policies and not come back til they had actually fully researched them. I’d send people like Pearse off to communications camp and show him how to communicate effectively. Finally, anyone standing should be able to recite policies off the top of their head and be prepared to answer any questions of challenges with detailed and credible answers.



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  • #3811
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,604 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Farcical if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael drag this out for months.

    This result is basically a re election of the government and they've told us the last 3 weeks how terrible things lie ahead for us.



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