Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

How do you mean? All the main parties are pro immigration. People are going to vote for them regardless as they're not going to vote for fringe parties purely for immigration purposes.

It's definitely not that big an issue.

But it's 100% a bigger issue than any polls will suggest for my previously stated reasons.

FF 38 SF 35 FG 29 SD 4 Aontu 3 Labour 3 Greens 2 the rest etc… my non scientific prediction.

I could be wrong but i think he said the redline between him and SF was only their housing policies? If that is all that is stopping them, then a workaround can be found if the will is there.

They say it's never too late to do the right thing, but the day before the election must be pretty close to being too late. Harris should have had the stones to cut mcgahon loose ages ago

I'm not sure how it's any different to how current leasehold arrangements work on the face of it. The banks don't seem to have a problem providing mortgages in these circumstances and SF say there shouldn't be an issue with them providing mortgages for their plan.

Interesting debate this morning on NT. Again 2 government candidates against one opposition but interesting none the less

Notwithstanding the peculiar construct of an idea you’ve drawn there about a party’s supposed downfall. that could well out poll all others this time ,let me just say Martin is appealing to the anyone but SF vote out there,the ones not fished if there’s any hint of an SFF

I would not agree that goldfish pond is empty

Agreed Blanch but the concern for FG is they are trending downwards, and i'm not sure Harris has done enough to change the current trends, and while the polls may have them at 20%, it may be no shock to see them in the 16/18% bracket come Friday. But who knows. FG might pull a rabbit out of the hat at some stage today!

Perhaps, but when you delve further into that poll, when the voters were shown their constituency list, it was the vote for SF that dropped to 18%. Remember, the polls for the local elections continually overestimated the Sinn Fein vote as well.

My prediction is that all three will lose share of the votes, with Sinn Fein dropping the furthest from 2020. It is possible that one or two may gain seats in a larger Dail, but I expect a government to be very difficult to form, and Harris to spend a lot of time talking about taking his young team to the backbenches and playing a longer game for a government to collapse within twelve months.

As pointed out on Clare Bryne there (Michael Lehane I think) you could see a mini to medium collapse in the FG vote tomorrow which changes the game totally and puts MM between a rock and a hard place in forming a government. His no talking to SF could be his undoing as leader. And Harris would be under pressure too IMO.

Fascinating election tbh.

I can't see the polls predicting the outcome well at all. I just don't see the Kanturk issue changing the minds of many, though I can see from debates why Harris is not likeable. It's more like 'we never elected him Taoiseach' that will affect him imo.

If FF & SF merged I can't see them getting along. A lot of SF are a bit dumb for these roles.

FF would be giving their voters the middle finger if they went into coalition with SF.

Has that ever stopped FF from doing such things, no.

The people who are left voting ff are life long supporters whose identity is tied up with being ff voters.

The age profile of FF support tells a tale.

No chance FF go in with SF…It will be FF/FG and Soc Dems or Labour with a few independents…FG will be happy to have Tanaiste and a few ministerial appointments after a poor election. FF should give the 3rd party housing, lets see if a new voice can change that record, keep health and justice and go back to one finance minister. FG can have some other depts.

Have you checked you are still on the register?
My youngest was removed off it for some reason and had to re-register.

But eventually it will happen. Whether that's in a few weeks time, 5 years, 25 years, it's going to be a case that AGS and defense force have to come to terms with SF being in government