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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • #212
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭esposito


    It looks increasingly likely that it will be a mild start to meteorological winter anyway. This day next week:

    IMG_2150.gif

    Temps at the surface GFS 6z:

    IMG_2152.png


  • #213
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The all important Winter Model Watching threads will be opened on Saturday just in time for winter. It does look like the start of December, will be relatively mild and Atlantic Driven. The PV looks like it will become very strongly positive over the next few weeks and the NAO/AO close to neutral, maybe slightly negative or slightly positive at times. No sign of any minor or major warming over the next few weeks so no great signal for cold over the next 2 weeks.



  • #214
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,540 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Signs that high pressure will move closer to Ireland towards the end of the first week of December introducing drier and calmer conditions. The risk of overnight frosts and fog will increase consequently.

    graphe4_10000_59_43___.png

    www.weatheire.com



  • #215
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The first week of December is likely to be very unsettled with areas of low pressure racing across the Atlantic with our name on it, could be very windy if not stormy at times as well. Perhaps week 2 of December is when we see things settling down for a bit. Any chance of cold in December is more likely in the second half of the month but overall it's likely to be a relatively mild month.



  • #216
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,431 ✭✭✭pauldry


    CFS for all it can be trusted gives a relatively mild mobile December with cold at the end. I was only looking to check Xmas day. It looks about 11c like every year so a 60percent chance of being right. New Year looks colder which is impossible to predict.

    I know mild Xmas day is too but it's a bit more likely than 50/50 IMO.



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  • #217
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭esposito


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881591#Comment_122881591

    If I was a bookie I’d be offering something like 8/13 odds for a mild Christmas Day. It’s almost a given these days. First half of Dec looks mild anyway, colder towards new year would be great.



  • #218
    joinme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 236 ✭✭joinme


    Man, those weather models predicting a mild december are so depressing. I know mild is always the likely outcome, but at least give us cold lovers a chase!



  • #219
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,431 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I doubt wel get as much snow as we got last week again this Winter.

    I know only some places got it but it's rare enough and our seasonal dose of snow is about 1 to 3 days so mild/cool and dry frosty are all that's left now.

    Looks pretty wet in next few weeks as is normal for an Irish Winter.



  • #220
    ClimateObserver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 103 ✭✭ClimateObserver


    Looking at this morning's GFS and it's cool-zonal all the way out into FI. and probably beyond. Typical early-December fare to be honest.



  • #221
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yep todays models are really doubling down on the mild and potentially stormy zonality over the next couple of weeks. Now would be a good time to take a break from model watching but I'll set up the Winter threads at the weekend. Hopefully there will be some eye candy at the very least in a few weeks.



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  • #222
    andrioolis
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33 ✭andrioolis


    I know that a long way in a lot of things can change in between - but do we have any insights on what to expect for the second week of December? Rain/wind/hight pressure?



  • #223
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,346 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    GFS has it looking fairly wet that week with 3 or more Atlantic fronts landing that week. CFS has it turning quite settled not long after that, up to and including Christmas



  • #224
    sparrowcar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,933 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Grim for snow lovers…

    Week 1 (Monday 02 December to Sunday 08 December)

    For week1, high pressure situated near Ireland will generate a predominately southerly airflow, leading to temperatures higher than average for the time of year. Precipitation amounts for Ireland will also likely be lower than average for early December.

    Week 2 (Monday 09 December to Sunday 15 December)

    Week 2 continues similar with high pressure likely nearby for most of the week, again bringing warmer than average temperatures, along with lower than average precipitation amounts overall, however parts of the northwest may end up with near average precipitation amounts.

    Week 3 (Monday 16 December to Sunday 22 December)

    By week 3, confidence in the forecast decreases, with less of a clear signal for any pressure pattern dominating. There is however a slight signal again for high pressure, likely leading to below average precipitation amounts, along with higher than average temperatures for the time of year.

    Week 4 (Monday 23 December to Sunday 29 December)

    For week 4, Christmas week, current indications are mixed with confidence in the forecast low. There is however a slight signal for higher than average precipitation amounts for late December, along with higher than average temperatures.



  • #225
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122899437#Comment_122899437

    While it is grim for cold/snow lovers I wouldn't get hung up on it, anything more than a week out is highly unreliable and changes can come out of nowhere very quickly sometimes.



  • #226
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭esposito


    This mornings GFS 6Z looks interesting from 198 hrs onwards. Has heights extending to Greenland resulting in winds turning northerly. However, we need to see this on the next few runs. GFS has a habit chopping and changing from one run to the next.



  • #227
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    that's a nice GFS 6z although it produces very little in the way of snow for Ireland but that would be very cold and frosty. The 6z operational is at the coldest end of the range however there are quite a few members going for something similar. We have a cooling trend into the second week of December hinting at a possible cold snap or spell, but this is very much in the unreliable time frame so a huge boatload of salt for now.

    Untitled Image

    the ECM isn't really showing this cooling trend at all.

    Untitled Image


  • #228
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Winter has arrived so time to start posting on the Winter thead for 2024/2025

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058382842/fi-charts-t120-onwards-winter-2024-2025-read-mod-note-in-first


This discussion has been closed.
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