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World Politics Digest thread

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Comments

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    For sure, though whatever else SF has been they never dipped so far into extremist populism like Wilders. the anti-muslim stuff gets the headlines but I'd speculate what else has appealed to voters that made his party the largest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,192 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Speaking of Wilders, his PVV has joined the VVD, BBB and NSC in a coalition nearly 6 months after November's GE.

    Meanwhile, the BJP look set to lose their majority in the Indian parliament. They even lost their seat in Ayodhya, where Modi led the opening ceremony of the grand temple of Ram, which was built on the site of a 400-year-old mosque which was demolished in 1992 in sectarian riots which killed 2,000 people. Hopefully this means India can walk back from the brink of an authoritarian state.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,576 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Corrected my information.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Delighted to see Modi get a bloody nose. I suspect that one way or the other he'll find a way to blame a minority grouping.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Bolivia

    Attempted coup there yesterday which was swiftly put down after the President, Luis Arce, simply names a new head of the army who successfully ordered the troops to stand down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Venezuela

    The Maduro regime announces that he wins the election despite being widely unpopular. Exit polls show he lost in a landslide

    I think Madura is a real litmus test for left wingers. Tankies will throw their support behind him because the only thing that matters to them is that he is an opponent of "The West".

    People who actually give a sh1t about democracy and the people of Venezuela see this as just another autocratic despot cynically grasping onto power whilst pretending to have a popular mandate.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,713 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    He has received pretty muted support, even from other left wing countries in South America. Basically only has Cuba and Bolivia in his corner, everyone else either doubting the results or outright rejecting.

    What difference this makes and what happens next of course is a whole other question.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Outside of tankies, who TBH are often so maniacal we can't reasonably extract any value from their opinion anyway, who are arguing for the Venezuelan regime at this stage?

    I presume nothing came of their border agro with Guyana?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,343 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    He has never had the international support or celebrity status of Chavez and every year that passes what he had has eroded.

    His useless handling of the country and sad grabs for power will destroy all the good that was done.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,292 ✭✭✭Good loser




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,713 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    On the same day as the US Presidential election there were a number of ballots in various states (Idaho, Nevada, Oregon & Colorado) to introduce Ranked Choice voting. Unfortunately they were all well defeated. (There was one victory but it was in D.C.).

    What was even worse for advocates of RCV is that there was also a (Republican led) ballot initiative in Alaska to repeal the RCV that they had only used for the very first time in 2022. It's bad enough to lose the fight to introduce RCV to a new state but it is far worse to have it removed after introducing it.

    In the days after the election the Repeal side took a big lead. However Alaska famously takes weeks to count their vote due to the gigantic size and rural nature of the state. The votes coming in from the far-flung rural constituencies are often from indigenous Alaskans. They are very much in favour of RCV and in ballot drops for the past week the Yes (Repeal) lead was being slowly eaten away. In last night's ballot drop the race was finally flipped and the No side finally took the lead for the very first time.

    There's still 2% of the vote left to count but that should probably favour No as well. Given how tight it is there could well be a recount and the Republicans might try to repeal it again should they eventually lose this time.

    image.png


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,713 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    RCV would genuinely make such an enormous difference in a number of states (not everywhere obviously), it's very unfortunately to see it fail. RCV is how Alaska ended up with a democratic representative, so I can see why they're a bit salty about it, but that's just the system working well!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yeah I think that win for Mary Pelota in 2022 was great at the time but in the long run it was bad for RCV. Republicans put that loss squarely at the feet of the voting system and railed against it. In all of those other states where there were ballot measures the example of the Democrats "rigging the system so that they won in Alaska" was used as a cudgel - and it seems to have been very effective at poisoning the very idea of RCV in many Republican minds.

    Ironically Mary Peltola is about to lose her seat to one of the Republicans that she beat in that race in 2022 - thereby proving that Republicans can actually win under RCV.

    The ballot measure has swung back slightly in the Yes direction - with the No lead now down to a ludicrous 45 votes. The final votes will be counted today.

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Ranked Choice Voting survived in Alaska by a mere 664 votes (49.9%-50.1%)

    The results for the measure, and other races that appeared on the Alaska ballot, won’t be finalized until the end of the month, when the elections review board is set to complete its work. Once the results are certified, voters have up to five days to request a recount.

    If the final result puts the gap at less than 0.5% of votes, the state must cover the cost of the recount. Otherwise, a recount could be conducted if those requesting it agree to cover its cost.

    Apparently state Republicans will try and get rid of it again in 2026.

    I think the fact that their candidate won back the House seat in the state will actually weaken their argument though as it proves that Republicans can actually win with RCV in place. Every election that it stays in place the voters will get more used to it as well so I think that it's likely here to stay at this point - which is excellent news for the campaign to introduce it elsewhere in the country. (Maine Republicans also bitterly fought it but now it's popular in that state)



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,713 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dlw5pq967o

    Well this seems pretty bad.

    Far right (as in actual nazi) who was polling at 5% and yet somehow leads the first round voting at 23%. Will go into a run-off with a fairly liberal opponent and it's hard to predict how the votes break down.

    Georgescu was a prominent figure in another far-right party, George Simion’s AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians), which eventually expelled him as too radical, after he praised leaders of the Iron Guard, a Romanian fascist movement during World War Two.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,624 ✭✭✭The White Wolf


    It is a crazy situation, my understanding is that this guy mostly ran a non standard campaign, relying heavily on Tik Tok to spread his message.

    Looking at what's happening in the UK right now, and even in our own country to a degree, I really feel a growing sense that the Far Right in Europe feel that the time is now.

    It's given me pause for what I'll do on Friday, as I might have to give options to parties that I usually wouldn't, in my own personal effort to keep people like this out of our government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I don't think there are any far-right candidates who have a realistic shot of getting elected - never mind getting near government.

    There are a few who might get a few thousand votes (Malachy Steenson, Gavin Pepper & Paddy Holohan).

    What's more likely is parties and independents who dog whistle about immigration will do well: Aontu, Independent Ireland, Mattie McGrath etc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,497 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    There are far-right TDs in the current Dáil, you've named one of them there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The extremely unpopular president of South Korea has just declared martial law

    image.png

    Apparently he is doing this out of desperation because he's a lame duck who cannot get any legislation passed.

    Even his own party have come out against this move.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The Army has shown up outside parliament now to shut it down.

    image.png

    Clampdowns on media as well

    image.png

    This is getting serious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,343 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What in the sweet jesus is he up to.

    Surely South Korea is far too stable for the people to accept this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Looks like people power has won. They blocked soldiers from entering parliament. At the same time a session was convened inside and those in attendance all voted against the martial law - which is constitutionally valid. Amazing

    This account has been live blogging it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Looks like an impasse is developing

    image.png

    Law makers are still in the parliament and are not leaving until martial law has been lifted.

    I think the people need to take to the streets. Let the generals know they won't accept a tyrant trying to cling to power.

    It's 3am in Seoul now. It's very possible that people have slept all the way through this and are in for a rude awakening in a few hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I'd say Trump will take a keen interest in this. It'll probably give him some ideas. Potential avenues to explore in the future should he meet too much resistance. Probably one of the reasons he's trying to stick an unqualified loyalist in MoD.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,343 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It seems like it has to be ratified by parliament who have turned it down so legally there is no martial law (by my amateur reading of it)

    If it keeps going till the Korean morning I would expect a city wide strike in Seoul.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,713 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    From my frantic googling, it looks like the President has to lift it, but he is obliged to do so on an act of Parliament. So it's essentially a procedural mess at this point.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,713 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ok, martial law over. Terrible coup 2/10



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