The decline of FG?

Absolutely, this is the most dangerous election for Sinn Fein. If they don't step up to the plate this time, they will be worse than the boy who cried wolf.

Contained in this post is one of the reasons FG's vote has declined. Astounding arrogance with no little self awareness.

'We can impose redlines and refuse to talk and we can decide not to involve ourselves and go into opposition, but nobody else can'.

So in 14 years all harris has achieved is to commence a childrens hospital that is going to cost 4 times the original projection and be delivered late by several years. But neither issues have anything to do with him. As he was "badly advised". Zero accountability. He precided over the cervical check scandal and record numbers on trolleys during his time for MOH where he was so bad there was a vote of no confidence in him. Made zero impact on healthiinthis country. In fact things got worse on his watch. He then went into a fabricated role for higher education whilst watching our third level universities slide down the global scale of third level rankings. At a time when the country is a wash with money. The lad is about as watery in politics as his handshake was to the carer in Cork on Friday. A glorified tea boy. Himself, leo, mcentee and their ilk have blown a glorious opportunity to become the runaway major party thru bullshit policies and astonishing financial waste whilst demonstrating zero accountability for their actions. Their turning the luke warm voter that craves sensible goverment against them. Inept and out of his depth. Racing around looking for his next vox pop.

I will take my chance and vote for a waster independent that at least might have some interest in delivering or raising awareness of issues in their locality. That gobshite is no leader. In goverment for 14 years and his only accomplishment is the most expensive hospital in the world. When BAM first came with the handout in 2018 this weakling should have put his foot down and ran them out of town and blacklisted them from all goverment contracts. But no he pulled his own pants down and took the people of ireland for a good rogering. Didnt have the balls to run mcentee earlier this year either. The worst miniter for justice the country has even seen. Incompetence recognises incompetence i suppose.

A boy scout at best. All talk no substance. Has been riding the coat tails of MNC in Ireland and squandering the proceeds with absolutely nothing to show for it outside of a bikeshed. This lad is no leader. He is a fraud. In fact he is the waster.

One day in government is worth a year in opposition.

The only independents that ever achieved anything went into government with FG in 2016.

The point is that FG have their ‘do as we say, not as we do’ arrogance to blame for their decline.

I don't know if it's as simple as that but we'll take it for argument's sake. However in 2020 SF would have needed the support of all non-FFG parties but most of the independents, and a big chunk of them are from FF & FG gene pools and indictions are even less keen on working with FG than their mother parties. Signs from the opion polls are SF would need to pull that same trick again this time if they were to form a non-FFG government…

You're assuming they've peaked already and that the left vote won't increase. 2 very dangerous assumptions to make. Let's not forget the left vote in 2011 was nearly nothing, 9 years later and the combined left draw nearly 35% of the seats

A bit like saying FGs only route to power is with FF, it's not, although it's certainly the most convenient route considering the 2 parties have almost the exact same policies

Just because you are the largest party is not an entitlement to government. You have to win a majority of seats. If you do not win tge required 87 seats then you need to deal with other parties.

Government's are formed when the sest numbers align. If the FG vote collapses then FF will "rethink" and see the numbers. However I do not think SF will ve the largest party. At present the numbers are looking like FF will be the largest with 40+ IMO. FG and SF behind them in probably that order. Independent Ireland and Aontu will surprise many with probably 12-15 seats between them and I expect them to transfer strongly between themselves.

His other sister!

They've really tried to make the pharmacist from Ballymun a thing also. I can't tell if the Edward McManus and Edward MacManus they've had running in different areas at different times is the same guy though.

They're transfer toxic, though.

2007 SF got 7% and actually lost a seat, down to 4, due to also being transfer toxic.

Of the big parties if we divide them between the left, centre and right wing based on the number of candidates they are running

Left:

• SF 71
• PBP 42
• SocDems 26

Centre:

• Greens 43
• Labour 32

Right

• FF 82
• FG 80
• Aontú 43
• Independent Ireland 28

Indies have 171 and you could assume that if the Greens and Labour win all their seats there would be enough centrist independents to back them up. Likewise you could assume that 6-8 right wing indies could prop up FF or FG if the need were to arise

So to say that the only chance of "party x" controlling the govt is to get into bed with "party y" is completely inaccurate although if you are a FG-er you could keep promoting the idea of a FF/SF coalition to try and drag some FF voters your way. Is that why we hear so much about a FF/SF coalition I wonder?

no party is LOCKED out from forming or being part of government. It’s the group of TDs’ - at least 167 of them- that come together on an agreed programme and want to form a government. I am surprised that this has to be spelt out to you

Quote her correctly…'ideally' without FF or FG.

And move Soc Dem into the same pot as Green & Labour.