Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

2024 General Election Dublin West

  • 19-11-2024 12:09AM
    #1
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭


    Major change is an increase from 4 seats to 5. Presumably the constituency has been increased in size for this.
    Outgoing TDs Jack Chambers FF, Paul Donnelly SF, Roderic O'Gorman GP will all stand again.
    Leo Varadkar FG is not standing for re-election.

    The increase to 5 seats sees both FF and SF run a 2-candidate strategy.

    Party Candidates
    Sinn Fein - Paul Donnelly TD and Cllr. Breda Hanaphy.
    Fianna Fail - Jack Chambers TD and Lorna Nolan.
    Fine Gael - Senator Emer Currie.
    Green Party - Roderic O'Gorman TD.
    Labour - Cllr. John Walsh.
    Solidarity PBP - Cllr. Ruth Coppinger.
    Aontu - Cllr. Ellen Troy.
    National Party - Cllr. Patrick Quinlan.
    Social Democrats - Ellen Murphy.

    Independents
    Cllr. Tania Doyle.
    Natalie Treacy.
    Umar Al-Qadri.
    Susanne Delaney.

    Analysis
    Seems little doubt that Jack Chambers and Paul Donnelly will retain their seats. More questionable is whether they can bring in a second seat. Donnelly probably would have done so in 2020, but not sure that SF will be getting 1.5 quotas this time though.
    There's probably a second seat for the historic old parties in the Castleknock area, so it would be a shock if Emer Currie doesn't in.


    Ruth Coppinger is a former TD who surprised some with her vote in Castleknock at the locals, not her normal area.
    Roderic O'Gorman has become a divisive character in this government. There's probably still a core Green vote there and if they are transfer friendly then the 5th seat might save him.

    Aontu still seem to me to be the Peader Tobin party I don't expect a huge vote here.
    They could transfer well to/from the National Party though, so order of elimination is important.
    I don't think it's a SocDem constituency, and I'm not sure Labour are a great fit either.

    Of the independents, Al-Qadri and Delaney didn't show much in the locals. Tania Doyle seems to be very popular in the Ongar side of the constituency.

    Prediction
    Chambers & Donnelly comfortably on an early count. Coppinger and Currie around count 8. A battle between O'Gorman, SF2 and Doyle for the 5th seat with one of them getting home without reaching a quota.



«1

Comments

Advertisement