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2024 General Election Dublin West

  • 19-11-2024 12:09am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,591 ✭✭✭✭


    Major change is an increase from 4 seats to 5. Presumably the constituency has been increased in size for this.
    Outgoing TDs Jack Chambers FF, Paul Donnelly SF, Roderic O'Gorman GP will all stand again.
    Leo Varadkar FG is not standing for re-election.

    The increase to 5 seats sees both FF and SF run a 2-candidate strategy.

    Party Candidates
    Sinn Fein - Paul Donnelly TD and Cllr. Breda Hanaphy.
    Fianna Fail - Jack Chambers TD and Lorna Nolan.
    Fine Gael - Senator Emer Currie.
    Green Party - Roderic O'Gorman TD.
    Labour - Cllr. John Walsh.
    Solidarity PBP - Cllr. Ruth Coppinger.
    Aontu - Cllr. Ellen Troy.
    National Party - Cllr. Patrick Quinlan.
    Social Democrats - Ellen Murphy.

    Independents
    Cllr. Tania Doyle.
    Natalie Treacy.
    Umar Al-Qadri.
    Susanne Delaney.

    Analysis
    Seems little doubt that Jack Chambers and Paul Donnelly will retain their seats. More questionable is whether they can bring in a second seat. Donnelly probably would have done so in 2020, but not sure that SF will be getting 1.5 quotas this time though.
    There's probably a second seat for the historic old parties in the Castleknock area, so it would be a shock if Emer Currie doesn't in.


    Ruth Coppinger is a former TD who surprised some with her vote in Castleknock at the locals, not her normal area.
    Roderic O'Gorman has become a divisive character in this government. There's probably still a core Green vote there and if they are transfer friendly then the 5th seat might save him.

    Aontu still seem to me to be the Peader Tobin party I don't expect a huge vote here.
    They could transfer well to/from the National Party though, so order of elimination is important.
    I don't think it's a SocDem constituency, and I'm not sure Labour are a great fit either.

    Of the independents, Al-Qadri and Delaney didn't show much in the locals. Tania Doyle seems to be very popular in the Ongar side of the constituency.

    Prediction
    Chambers & Donnelly comfortably on an early count. Coppinger and Currie around count 8. A battle between O'Gorman, SF2 and Doyle for the 5th seat with one of them getting home without reaching a quota.



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,267 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Delaney is doing her best to hide her conspiracy theory convictions in her material, but there is a link to the 'question' as to why we apparently have an increase in our death rates in one of her fliers. She's also loosely associated with some of the right wing racist groups and all the "x says No" associations. Other warnings is that she considers herself a "citizen journalist" (where'd we hear that before) with the Irish Inquiry.

    She and her team knocked in to me during the local elections and they aren't upfront about any of this, they try to portray her as more mainstream. I'm pretty sure some of her local election fliers has shite about how the schools are grooming our primary school kids with all the dirty sex talk type of stuff.

    Post edited by Hurrache on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭jonnybravo


    I'd agree that Chambers, McGuiness & Currie are safe bets. I suspect Ruth Coppinger will get the 4th seat as well. RTE analysis had the 5th seat between Ellen Troy (Aontu), John Walsh (Lab) and Roderic O'Gorman (Green). Aontu in the locals had a high vote was their rationale. I think it'll be between Walsh and O'Gorman.

    https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22446314/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,008 ✭✭✭Pat Dunne




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    Delaney has had two posters up on the Snugborough road since the local elections. Totally illegal and Fingal did nothing about them! We have Aontú plus three far right independents running, they can all FRO



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,639 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Who’s the third far-right candidate? Quinlan, Delaney and ….?

    Agree on the FRO part.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 869 ✭✭✭Icemancometh


    Forde. The guy with the no more immigrants posters



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    They make me sick. In such a diverse constituency it's disgusting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭daymobrew


    Did you report the two posters to Fingal Litter Wardens? They tend to be very good.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭jonnybravo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,639 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Oh wow, yeah. I've seen or heard nothing else from him, so googled him and he looks absolutely nothing like I expected him to;

    John Forde · GE2024 · TheJournal.ie

    After that, I can find precisely zero information on him.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭ciaran76


    I saw a video on X yesterday where she has been contacted/fined by FCC about them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    That's good. Closed my account on there a while back but good to hear, it was so frustrating seeing them every day



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 149 ✭✭A Knight of Ireland


    My tuppence

    I'd reckon that Chambers, McGuiness & Currie are all in fairly early. I suspect John Walsh will get the 4th seat. 5th seat between Ellen Troy and Roderic O'Gorman. I think she will take the seat. People are in the Anti Green phase at the moment. I don't blame them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    Again presume you mean Donnelly rather than McGuiness. Hope you're wrong about Aontú taking a seat in the constituency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 351 ✭✭kalych


    I think this is spot on if indeed you meant Donnelly not McGuinness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 216 ✭✭Gerlad


    I think Ruth will get in easily especially now with the fifth seat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,591 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Boylesports odds
    Paul Donnelly 1/33
    Jack Chambers 1/14
    Emer Currie 1/6
    Ruth Coppinger 2/5
    John Walsh 8/11
    Roderic O'Gorman 8/11
    Tania Doyle 2/1
    Ellen Troy 5/1
    Patrick Quinlan 6/1
    Lorna Nolan 14/1
    Breda Hanaphy 16/1
    Ellen Murphy 16/1
    Susanne Delaney 16/1
    Natalie Treacy 33/1
    Umar Al-Qadri 100/1
    (Much like my OP, Boyles don't seem to realise John Forde is running, or more accurately creaking from his crypt)

    So they see the obvious 3 elected comfortably, then from Coppinger to Doyle a 4-way battle for the other two seats.
    The last survivor of Quinlan/Troy could also be involved if they transfer well.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 47,351 ✭✭✭✭Zaph


    Very disheartening to see Quinlan at such short odds. Hopefully this will be one of those occasions where the bookies are way off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60 ✭✭Pale Red


    There's six odds-on candidates for five seats. There are a few candidates that I would never vote for and all but one are not odds-on.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭angel eyes 2012


    I agree, Roderic losing his seat would be a great result for Dublin West and for the country as a whole.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    Can't disagree enough with this. Roderic has been a public representative for Castleknock and then Dublin West for a long time. He's done a lot more for the area than Leo or Chambers for starters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,267 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    You couldn't be more wrong. Are you the type that subscribes to that dumb notion that the green party, and green party only, are the ones responsible for anything you don't like that happens in the country despite being a minority party in government?

    This website is littered with such dumbness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,508 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    To be fair the poster didn't actually mention what policies of the Green Party they disliked, that doesnt automatically equate to not knowing which policies the GP pushed through in the last term of the government. Maybe they dislike the Deposit Return Scheme.

    The green party although a minority party in the government have pushed policies that FF and FG don't like, for example the anti pollution taxes on cars and heavy goods vehicles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,267 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    FF and FG were on board with the policies, you think the Greens strong armed them through?

    And do people really think green policies only exist because the green party were in government? Many are mainstream policies these days and they'd exist if the party was a green party or not.

    Having said that FF/FG have two of the worse manifestos for sustainable transport which is pretty **** stupid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,508 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    There would be no point in voting for a minority party in government if they didnt have their own policies that would be different to FF/FG. The Green party have been taking responsibility for green initiatives such as the Deposit Scheme so if voters are unhappy with how these schemes are run, they are going to be punished. Roderic may be good for Dublin West but if a voter is against their anti pollution taxes I wouldnt mock them for deciding not to vote Green Party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,232 ✭✭✭rameire


    In case anybody wants to know Name to Face.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭angel eyes 2012


    No, I'm not that 'type'. I would hold Helen McEntee equally responsible but she isn't in my constituency so I can't vote against her, hence my vote will be a strategic vote against O'Gorman. That's democracy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭daymobrew


    I heard that your voting day has changed to tomorrow week ;-)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭jlang


    Your Russian Bot impression needs a bit of work.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 13,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭JupiterKid


    I very much hope John Walsh (my No. 1 vote) gets in and re-takes the Labour seat lost by Joan Burton in 2020.

    As a councillor, Walsh has been a very hard worker and he was also in school with me way back - a really decent guy.

    Roderic O'Gorman - a man I had voted for in previous elections has become a dangerous liability in power - at least as bad as Helen McEntee. I hope he loses his seat.

    The Greens have strayed so far off their core values and need a wipeout today and a reset with a new leader.

    Post edited by JupiterKid on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Nigzcurran


    I went with the 2 shinners. Has sworn id never vote for them about 12 months ago but I can't stand the thought of Harris and his smug face anymore. Let mlmd have a go and see what happens. Hopefully they dont wreck the place



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72 ✭✭Fatnacho


    No doubts Donnelly will top the poll here but just wondering does he have any intentions of having any impact on national level politics?

    He obviously has a good local base and is visible in the community but you never hear of him contributing meaningfully in any debate. The constituency has had a number of high profile TDs but Donnelly just seems to be content with getting re-elected.

    MLMcD only gave him a position as spokesperson for Community Development so hardly a ringing endorsement. With O’Gorman possibly in trouble, the area could do with another TD with national standing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭angel eyes 2012


    Sure isn't Jack Chambers next in line to succeed Martin as leader of FF once he retires and runs off to claim his teacher's pension.

    I'd much prefer a mild-mannered politician who focuses on local issues like Donnelly than RO'G who led the unnecessary and unsuccessful referendums this year that cost 20 million to run. In addition, he invited half the world over to treasure island via twitter, a policy, which will cost us billions to manage, and there is absolutely no accountability shown on the part of the Government, or the Green party, in particular.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72 ✭✭Fatnacho


    Because it’s a safe SF seat and because of his relatively low profile, Donnelly won’t bring much tangible benefit to D15 if he ends up in government.
    While if Chambers or O’Gorman are in a coalition, they”ll get a cabinet position and have some sway on budgets directed to the area.
    I’d much rather have a TD that contributes nationally than a TD who is content to sit on the benches and make up the numbers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60 ✭✭Pale Red


    I didn't realise that RO'G had so many twitter followers. And those followers had no other access to the internet. Maybe Putin is a follower and decided to start a war based on secret messages embedded in the tweets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,267 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Problem with John Walsh is that I literally never heard of him or from him for any of my local issues, so he's obviously one of those politicians who really is 'local' and neglects the rest of his constituency.

    First time I met or saw him was when Mary Camley came around with him, he could have done with taking a leaf from her book as she's probably the best local politician we've had over the years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,267 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    All politics is local as they say, just because you think something is unnecessary doesn't mean it's of importance to others.

    Many politicians come around lobbying on topics I've no interest in or about things that have no affect on me.

    But the great thing about our system is that I understand it's of importance to others and we should accept that. Do I feel the need to go "punish" those politicians for doing stuff that doesn't affect me, no, because I'm an adult I just don't vote for them like I previously never would have anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Nigzcurran


    Yeah that's a good point, I kind of ignore politicians banging on about solving the housing crisis cause I'm not affected but its a short sighted attitude to have to be honest



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,667 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Chambers, Donnelly, Currie assured.

    I reckon Roderic will ultimately make it, but probably be a solo flyer on the backbenches. Coppinger likely back from the political wilderness too, delivering plenty of misery before Christmas.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭Murt10


    End of day synopsis from RTE. Going to be interesting tomorrow.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24-constituency-live-blogs/1483314-dublin-west/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,967 ✭✭✭Polar101


    So huge surprises in the end. Donnelly didn't get enough votes to help Hanaphy (SF #2), and almost no-one voted for Lorna Nolan (FF #2) despite a big poster campaign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,558 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    One of the most dangerous politicians we've ever had re-elected but the positive his party lost 11 of 12 seats. Bye bye Greens, let the Dublin airport boom commence. O'Leary Will be delighted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Nigzcurran


    Shame Roddy got the seat but he'll be a lonely boy in the dail now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,667 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Fly baby fly!

    Yeah really its going to feel a whole lot worse for young Rod, cast alone to the opposition backbenches, taking up his perch behind the Healy-Raes, trying to contemplate a rebuild.

    Thats assuming he even remains Party Leader. The Greens have to hold a leadership contest after every election, its in their constitution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,267 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Lol, the madness of some people.

    You'd have to worry about an upcoming FF/FG coalition if they can be ridden over by a very small minority of a party.

    Unless of course the obvious being they also broadly agreed with the green mandate at the time? FG were hardly the ones to introduce the carbon tax were they before the greens even became members of government, say it ain't so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,558 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    I felt at the time his seat was at serious risk. So imo they gave him the leadership as the boost was needed to retain his seat.

    I'm going to sleep well tonight knowing these boyos are gone. Hopefully whoever replaces them in the next ticket has a far less toxic impact on the ruling parties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,175 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    Well I'm thrilled that Roderic got reelected. We nearly ended up with an Aontú TD. Pretty sure she hoovered up some of Jack Chambers' former anti abortion votes. It's the only explanation for her performance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,667 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You're thrilled?

    What do you expect him to deliver for Dublin West, or nationally now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,639 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Surely you could say the same about any of the independent TDs, or the two Aontú TDs?

    The Government will need votes and Roderic is in as good a position as any of them to make hay.

    I’m glad for Roderic because so much of the hatred of him was based on bizarre internet conspiracy theories and naked homophobia.

    And if the alternative is Aontu and their catholic dogma, count me doubly delighted.



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