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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,655 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yes, no doubt you have a point.

    SFs solution to the problems of affordability for FTBers is deflationary. This is good for FTBers.

    FFGs solution is inflationary. This is good for existing property owners.

    It stands to reason that SF's solution will not be popular with the majority of property owners, who are concerned about their paper wealth.

    But SF don't need the support of the majority of property owners in order to be in government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,542 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think they have abandoned winning it on their record(or see that as extremely risky, given the hammering they are taking on housing so far) and are hoping they can buy power back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    What particular streets are the islamists ruling please?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Rents up 43% from 2019.

    "B-b-but FFG are smashing all the housing targets"

    Apartment delivery in Dublin has cratered, it's not looking good at all

    https://www.thejournal.ie/average-rents-up-43-on-pre-covid-levels-daft-price-rental-report-6540424-Nov2024/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Did you take our €250 billion in national debt into account when you did your 'wealthiest' calculation? Remind me now, which party was it that destroyed our economy leaving us with that huge debt?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    I'm old enough to remember when Labour came out with the 50k houses a year target, and FF and FG was apoplectic in telling them how ridiculous and non feasable it was.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,314 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Condescending post much?

    BTW, according to the CSO in 2022 66% of homes are owner occupied (down from 68% in 2016). But that doesn't mean 66% of the country own their own homes. You need to allow for the fact that lots of homes are owned by 2 people (which would increase the percentage), but also people's children (including adult children) live there too (which decreases it).

    According to the Irish Times, over 80% of those over the age of 40 own their own home, but barely a third of adults under 40 do. This is data from 2019, but if it's gone anywhere it'll have gone down I'd imagine.

    Inflated house prices, right now, are good for home owners. If they plan on selling their house. But it's killing the younger population.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,066 ✭✭✭MFPM


    No, she doesn't have ministerial experience as she hasn't been in government nor did ROG before being appointed a minister, nor have several others such as Norma Foley and Catheirne Martin.

    While not the most likely outcome, it's not completely ruled out that Ivana Bacik or Holly Cairns could be Minister for Foreign Affairs with no ministerial experience - yet you've no issue with Labour or the SDs.

    And of course for the third time, nor did Enda Kenny, Sanna Marina, Jacinda Ahern and Kaja Kallas - have any significant/any experience before becoming their country's Prime Minister/Taoiseach - it's interesting you've ignored this point.

    The issue here isn't experience, that's a red herring you've raised, you want a pro US lackey and to you MLMD is not that.

    The point about Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel is that they are all reprehensible states that are supported by US imperialism yet you are critiquing MLMD over her alleged 'support' for countries that are opposed by the US. As for the stupidity of Harris and Martin, you're right they do stay onside with US imperialism so they turn a blind eye to the US sending arms to Israel through Irish airspace, they are happy to trade with the Saudis irrespective of their human rights record or illegal bombing raids in Yemen and Qatar and of course we ceased no trade with the genocidal Netanyahu regime.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I dont agree with your conclusion, but I do agree that we can only vote for whats on offer, but on housing, FFG are the best of the bunch, not SF.

    We are not going to see more homes built by SF than we would under the current govt.

    SF are relying on the private sector to build the majority of their homes, but they also want investment funds out of the picture. Investment funds are what makes private developments viable!

    I fear we would see a major reduction in house completions under a SF govt, whereas FFG will deliver a steady rise up towards 50k and 60k by 2030.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    And SF would wipe the national debt and also maintain our employment rates, FDI and job creation levels?

    I dont think so.

    Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I really dont see a better viable option than an FFG govt. I am by no means saying its a perfect option by the way, but its the best we have.

    For context, I am not a supporter of any of the three of them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Perhaps back then it wasn't feasible, but with the planning and development act bill incoming and additional construction resource moving from commercial to residential, it is achievable within this next govt term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Enda Kenny had been Minister for Tourism and Trade, and also Minister of State for Education and Labour so you are wrong again.

    Nobody in Ireland supports Qatar and Saudi Arabia (bar Mary Robinson, icon of the left), but MLMD's naivety in supporting evil in Hamas, Russia and Maduro makes her dangerous.

    I am not looking for a pro-US lackey, but in a country which is dependent for its wealth on US multi-nationals, putting a naive anti-US idiot into leadership is a really bad idea. Maybe you will accept poverty and mass emigration in order to have your country support organisations like Hamas and dictators like Maduro and Putin. Well, I won't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Even if Sinn Fein's policies would be better in the longer run, the increases in housebuilding under FF and FG look locked in, particularly as there is a slowdown in commercial development, as the working from home phenonemon continues and retail moves online.

    Switching to Sinn Fein opens up the risk of all of that progress being lost, being back to square one, waiting for legislation to pass and three or four years being lost. That is IF the banks agree to fund SF's mad scheme, which I very much doubt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It is a fair point.

    We need a partnership relationship with the US, if our economy is to survive in the medium term.

    Again, with FFG, we have a solid relationship with the US, that is open to continued FDI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    MLMD would be laughed out the door by Trump, her election would be great for him, because he could rub the noses of all those diddley-ay Democrats that love the Irish in the dirt even more.

    Our relationship with the US should be the second most critical issue in this election, after climate change.

    If we don't get climate change right and if we don't get our relationship with the US right, we won't have to worry about housing or health, because we will be back to ghost estates and empty hospitals.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    100%.

    There are far too many risks to the SF proposal & when you contrast their approach with a steady rise in completions under the current govt, coupled with the impact of the planning bill and investment in additional planning staff, as well as an increased residential construction workforce, it just doesn't make sense to change the govt and lose all of that momentum.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,352 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Ye are all over the place lads. To be honest, I think ye have had a tough day so I won't slag ye 🙂

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,655 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I suspect a lot of property owners would agree with you that it makes no sense to change a government making such great progress on housing.

    equally though I suspect a lot of people who don't own property might disagree that FFG are making great progress on housing.

    Will be interesting to see which view counts for more votes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    Translation: "I have a house so I want prices to keep rising, screw anyone who doesn't",

    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Are the anti-business Sinn Fein going to result in commercial construction picking up again?

    How is that relevant to the decision of FFG Vs SF?

    If anything SF may cause commercial market to crater even more freeing up more labour for residential.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Totally agree. The issues being talked about are the same ones for decade's , most of my mates, mostly forker fg voters, aren't voting. No credible options, decade's of talk and piles of money, nothing done... O'Leary is right, there is no leadership, vision etc... a



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    How could it be worse ? Outrageous taxation over a pittance? Yeah we have that. World's largest welfare state, yeah we have that too... you mean you think it can get worse?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Third world infrastructure, housing crisis, insane rents if you're a worker, free luxury housing for many wasters... your pay halved if you go over a pittance... law and order ? Lol... couldn't defend ourselves against an attack from the Faroe islands



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Simon Harris still can't identify the 6 asylum reception centres apart from Thorton Hall which still hasn't taken any refugees.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,445 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Colette Fitzpatrick really putting Simon Harris' feet to the fire here. Bit of a disaster of an interview.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    E Murphy admits what everyone knew - FG have never wanted to solve the housing crisis.

    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,352 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I am starting to think FFG are in real trouble in this election. Their guff is annoying people. All these shiny new promises seem utterly disingenuous too.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    When talking about the riots this month last year, Collette should have asked Harris why no one has been convicted yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    I didn't mention SF at all. Just added a little bit of important context to your analysis.

    if it wasn't feasible then, that's down to FF and FG too.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,812 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    The last thing most voters want is a solution to the housing crisis and both FF and FG know this. Most voters are property owners with huge debts and any feasible solution to the housing crisis would send them into negative equity and result in calls for them to up the equity in their mortgages, so that is a mega vote looser. The only solution to the housing crisis that would not impact current owners is one in which people don't get to own a house and until the pain gets a lot worse, that is not going to be acceptable either.



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