Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

I know people who are members of SF just because their parents were members of the PIRA.

Blow up the country, kill gardai, kneecap young men, abuse children? Bah who cares. Daddy told me they're great.

It is why I give FF my second last preference, just ahead of SF.

Except that's not what happens. More likely is that a very small number of people have made bets. It somebody comes along and bets a couple of hundred euro on 1 candidate the bookies will have to cover that bet by reducing the odds. So 1 better can tilt the odds.

Ivan Yates and Matt Cooper discussed this in the lead up to the European elections and suggested that some campaigns have placed a bet on their candidate in this manner and used the reduction in odds as a signifier of their growing popularity. Cheap advertising in a way.

Members of FF? Jesus they're not like hen's teeth, why would anyone need to make it up? I'd assume most people would know someone in FF.

Yep, that's why neither party gets a high preference from me.

Not necessarily Breezy. If you know that who you are voting for is extremely popular in the area they are representing then that's when you get value (or potential value)

I provided the example of Joan Collins yesterday who was silly odds according to the natives (i'm almost certain i got 10/1, 6/1 & 4/1) Now granted the max stake any bookie would take wouldn't be of any significance but still enough for a nice profit

Not sure how you think FFG would provide more stability than SF. Surely in the face of the US turning more right-wing we need Europe to skew to the left to counterbalance it. Above all else I think it would be much more interesting to see MLMD meeting CF Trump on Paddy's week than either of the yes men that lead FFG.

On the date, I have to disagree, I think they got the timing just right, remember they had to have a GE before February. Having a GE in January in the middle of a hospital trolley crisis with Trump being crowned in DC would drive even more voters to the left. Good for the country but a complete disaster for FFG. Assuming the opinion polls are indeed correct (nothing guaranteed obviously) we are on track for another FFG led govt so I think it will pay off for them barring a disaster. And I say this as somebody who will probably not vote for them

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I do too.

Are you kidding? I don't think there's anywhere in the country where there's a wider range of candidates. What do you reckon is missing?

That's all they ever do, really. They take a guess at first and after that the odds move to reflect the sums wagered.

It's amazing how many people think bookies have incredible powers of prediction. Or that bookies' odds are in any way related to probabilities. The aim of the bookie is to make money no matter who wins.

I think it's all going to be down to the TV leaders debates. Mondays debate made FFG look incompetent to the extreme but the leaders debates will be a different scenario.

If the numbers don't stack up directly for a FFG govt I can see stances softening on SF to keep the Eurogroup presidency in Paschal Donnoghues hands. Every FF leader thinks they have a God given right to be Taoiseach so they might cosy up as well. Whether SF will have either is the real question

An awful lot of wishful thinking there.

Even if the anti-FF/FG vote is as strong as you think it is (and the polls don't agree) that vote will not just go to SF by default as it did last time. There's a wider range of candidates on the left and right to pick up those votes. Plus independents who blow with the wind depending on the issue.

UK economy was in absolute dire straits so no surprise that government got a huge kicking. US still feeling the effects of inflation, although their economy is reasonably good.

We have a very strong economy and a lot of people really don't want SF in government.

Unless there is a massive shift in numbers, I don't see any scenario where FF or FG will go in with SF. If SF do particularly well, it will either be from one of FF or FG, in which case there is still the option for the other party to link up with Labour, Soc Dems and Greens. Or else SF will get votes from Labour, Soc Dems and Greens but then FF and FG will have the numbers between themselves to go in with say Independent Ireland or just some indepedents.

What would the numbers need to look like for all parties for it to make sense for FF or FG to link up with SF? I don't see it…

Still the strongest economy in europe with full employment for years. That doesn't happen by accident.

We need more housing, I think we all agree with that.

The housing targets have been reached the last few years and we have commencements over 60k in the last 12 months. All the signs relates to housing are positive and rising. FFG are upping their targets to over 50k per year.

Changing to a SF policy now will just slow down housing output, not increase it.

We have the momentum today, lets build on it.

Hoping a party will come in and do a better job, but having no evidence of same is not an argument that would convince me, or many others.