Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

Yes Cluedo, Boyle Sports are offering odds on some cons. Not all, but about a dozen or so.

https://www.boylesports.com/sports/politics

I#'m specifically waiting on 1 or 2 cons as i have my suspicions on a couple of outsiders (well they should be)

I can't remember when Joan Collins was first elected but i remember a good friend of mine telling me to back her as an absolute cert (he was from Drimnagh) and won close on 600quid placing a few smallish bets with PP & Boyle

I had a labour candidate actually come back to my house after one of his group said I'd be interested in talking to him, was actually refreshing not to just have a flier in the door.

Sinn Fein promising 370,000 homes over six years. Easy to promise but where and who is going to build these homes. Its classic election one up manship…

Two months in the space of three months, not one.

Where's your December 2002 stat from? The same PTSB series? If its from another, its not going to be the same baselines. You should link to something like that, like I did with mine.

The figures you've given there are not for new houses, just FTB vs non FTB - FTBs buy second hand houses too - by the way. But they're also irrelevant.

All your other full year figures don't matter - prices dropped, immediately, when the grant was removed; either directly or with fake "developer grants" - those not hiding the drop in actual prices. 2001 figures are also irrelevant as the grant remained constant throughout 2001.

That the market was overheating and brought them back up is irrelevant. It would have been even hotter had the pointless margin guarantee remained.

I know from elsewhere that you really, really dislike being proved wrong and I suspect this might be another case of a bad reaction to that.

I think it could really benefit them as party all round to stop just being different for the sake of it on absolutely everything. It’s tiresome to constantly be a detractor.

If they came out and said ‘This economy is a phenomenal success. We think the proceeds could be better used to improve housing/health/infrastructure and the current gov are wasting the opportunity . Here’s how we’d do it. We’ll leave everything else alone’

I think they could have much wider appeal.

They’re tendency for idiotic policies and nonsensical positions on EU membership, corporation tax, property tax, more progressive income tax, reducing retirement age…whatever other way the winds blows means they are just too much of a risk to take.

I’d be somewhat intrigued to see if SF could genuinely make a better fist of health and housing in particular. I doubt it, but I’d be willing to give them a go…but the risk they absolutely destroy probably the greatest economic success story in modern history is too high to give them a shot.

There was no cut-off, so that doesn't work

It was announced that it was gone immediately. If you were already underway you could get it, absolutely nobody new could.

There's no alternative view that works with the facts. Artificial support was removed, prices dropped for the single category of house with the artificial support.

All boils down to the candidate, Irish people have a tendency to vote for the person more so than the party.

Some truth in that but needs to be heavily caveated

FG are pretty much guaranteed a seat in every four- and five-seat constituency outside of working-class Dublin

Plus FF & FG government ministers only lose their seats in the most extreme and exceptional circumstances

which adds up to H-Mac being safe as houses…

And the mix of people buying will change if HTB is removed. First-time buyers will be squeezed out by those with cash, those buying second homes and institutional investors.

I agree about the greens. I see they want big increase in spending on transport, so I will give them a vote. If all the alternatives are looking to blow it all...

Very impressed with Greens manifesto. Light on hard left wing tax & welfare policies.

Ambitious plans on infrastructure, housing, climate, childcare.
Locked in a high preference from me.

They were already a high preference for me but still impressed with the manifesto.

A lot of it is probably pointless as they won't get near certain portfolios in government but I like what I see in the ones they will. We are finally turning corners on public transport in this country and keeping that going is huge on my list of priorities.

Agreed, although if there’s one thing the Greens have shown, they are effective as a minority partner having an impact. By staying consistent, on message and relentless on their core issues….even if they know it may not necessarily be popular with public.

Very admirable in a world where it feels like no other party is willing to deliver the difficult changes.

Less houses were built between January and September 2024 than January and September 2023

Housing output is falling

Govt were handed their arse on RTE last night, Paschal looks worn out and tired, Darragh is just a joke of a man

The debates are going to destroy the Govt, I expect the opposition to keep at the records in Health Housing and Justice and the Govt have nothing to defend themselves on, apart from a few shouts of won't someone think of the commencements

In all likelihood 2024 new builds will surpass 2023. 2024 will be the most houses built in Ireland for 17 years. It will also lead Europe per capita. As 2023 did.

But don't you think that's telling in a way that for us to be leading building per capita in Europe (it's a bit of an irrelevance really) how far we are behind other European countries, but again, you can't really compare like with like.

I know they have different housing models in Central Europe anyway

We are far behind where we need to be because we lost 10 years of construction almost completely because we had one of the world’s biggest housing crashes. That’s pretty clear.

How we have recovered to this level of building is absolutely remarkable and a huge credit to this current government. Rolling the dice to change following a remarkably successful few years due to issues created for very specific reasons two decades ago is very odd.

Like man united sacking their next new manager after winning two games cause they’re still not top of the league!