FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

An excellent 18z on the surface. Just no deep cold really arrives as the LP in the North Sea acts as a shield to the arctic army marching south and it mixes out the deepest of the cold. A few tweaks though and we'd be laughing, if cold and snow is your wish.

FYI upgrade in ECMWF goes live tomorrow from 06z with main 00z and 12z out to 360hrs now and 06z and 18z out to 144hrs.

Hopefully a cool start to it :D

Oh wow that kind of set up reminds me of storm Emma if you get me , not that it's gonna be a repeat as for 1 feb/March 2018 was easterly winds and these would be northerly but as the low comes up it would swing to an easterly, 2 I don't think enough cold air would be around to have a widespread heavy snowfall event, also 3 I bet ya my house that Galway beo will say something along the lines of "storm Emma 2.0 is on the way with heavy snow fall net eirrean issues stark warning" ⚠️

ECM and GFS rather different at the moment.

ECM 0z going with some pretty cold weather but has it very slack, with us stuck in a col of sorts. Very reminiscent of multiple cold spells in recent years where the old adage of 'disturbances will pop up in the flow' will be wheeled out constantly yet it ends up painfully stable and dry somehow 😁. On this particular run, it does look like there would be precip. around.

GFS is eager to have multiple lows swing by, with potential for parts to get an absolute pasting.

Given the struggle to get properly cold air to sink south given the angle of attack and assumedly the warm seas, a frontal event could be where you get something out of all of this. GEM has an absolute humdinger of a storm passing just to our south next Tuesday, clashing into some decently cold air.

GFS even has the potential for a snow event next Monday. It's coming into the medium term forecasting. 6 days away.

I fear we're just a touch early in the season, for snowfall at lower levels, if those synoptic come about.

Next Tuesday is the 19th, if we were the 26th like 2010 even.

Though I do remember snow on 19th November 1996, it was mostly hill snow.

💯

A bit like easier to get sustained warmth by day and night in September, warmer Seas, as opposed to April.

It's likely far too early for anyone within an asses roar of the coasts for sure, as there's no severe cold that seems to survive the journey nor head directly to us. But for a frontal event, which is still not off the cards, those well inland could see something at this time of year. Maybe something like December 2017. Tears and rain for many, but decently inland and the fun got going eventually.

ECM looking good on WX, prolonged cold air on this one. Nothing majorly cold but wintry nonetheless. Doesn't make much of any LPs so much drier away from northern and north western coasts.

GFS still going wild with some impressively deep lows forming over Ireland and the UK.

More runs needed…

That is quite the ECM chart, -8s over Ireland all next week and it ends with a high pressure stretching from Newfoundland to Siberia.

While it’s early, Friday week is only 4 weeks shy of the shortest day so I’m not worried about the suns strength if any snow accumulates. Much better than late march in that regard.
Biggest thing currently against us is the soil temperatures , 3.3c to 5.2c above average which is just insane.
A couple of stiff frosts would readily bring that down but IMO the soil temperatures are the biggest thing going against us in the short term. A couple of days in to the cold spell better prospects of snow accumulating if it goes to plan.

I'm really interested in this. If 26-30 November 2010 delivered. Can one week earlier deliver?!

Now I suppose we'd need an indept analysis of sea temperatures then compared to next week. The depth of cold and source it travelled in 2010 compared to next week. Needless to say the less mixing the better!

Some staggering NH profiles appearing on todays runs, the ECM 12z and now the 18z GFS. Vortex gets pummeled. Doesn't lead to any on those runs but something to keep an eye on.

Re: 2010 November spell. We're not even in the same ballpark as that and nothing to suggest we'll get there. As below, it was extremely cold air pouring towards us. Potent easterly, and a much better route as less moderation vs. a northerly over all the sea to our north. By the 1st, we were approaching peak of the cold air in this spell. The preceding days also had lots of deep cold over us. Even synoptically, things were a million times better than what's upcoming.

Maybe we might get some upgrades and pull down some -8s in the upcoming spell but I wouldn't bet on it. We'll probably be relying on low thickness, good height asl and a distance inland to produce some snow.

2010 was historic. What's on the charts for now, is wintry.

It's also worth baring in the mind the sheer duration of the setup that November. The deep cold didn't arrive overnight, easterly winds and extensive blocking set in nearly 10 days in advance (see below). Basically, the taps were left on for nearly 2 weeks. All the time in the world for the cold to make its move. A lot of the time we get a 3-4 day stab at a cold spell and if the cold is not nearby, it'll all be for nothing. Especially at this time of year, you need those first 3-4 days alone to get the cold air to start its journey from the far north of the hemisphere.

EDIT: One further chart to supplement the above, for the equivalent date and time. When the blocking first got going, and the easterly winds, cold was very absent. All pent up in the arctic circle. So if it ended up being a couple of days of blocking, all would have came to nothing such is the state of play in November. So if some of the charts next week come to pass, and we get a decently cold airmass, we'll have done well for ourselves.