Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

T

I hightlighted the issue supply vs demand along with a few other issues with regards to property going back to 2016/7/8 that not only was supply stopped and slowed for the guts of 2 decades but that we would see an increase in investors from all over the globe due to the rent returns that were high back then and they have gone through the roof since add in the government scheme to take properties off you and manage it for you for 20/25 years and you can sit back and watch the cash roll in on an asset only going one way. Throw in more and more people arriving in Ireland from other countries due to a lot of positive aspects such as jobs, safe country to live (relatively speaking), the who needs documentation issue as in people don't seem to need to gain entry here and of course our world record breaking welfare entitlements. I said more and more people would be looking to be housed. People on here scoffed saying that they would not be in the same market with someone buying a home I countered that they would be housed one way or the other which is what has happened via our left leaning government. Not only are people who are trying to buy now competing with a domestic market, they are competing with our gov who are hoovering up houses for those who can afford to buy and those fleeing from other countries and then you have international investors who are continuing to buy here. As long as we continue down this path of not building enough and having people compete for buying a house in the same market as huge vulture funds and our gov who have endless amounts of cash then there will be no let up for people from say 30 years of age downwards in this country I have 2 kids and I would be advising both to get out of dodge when they can as the sums in the country when you cant afford the rent or to buy added to the fact that your fleeced on income tax (your own hard work) from the gov to pay for housing for others while you cant get a step on the ladder yourself does not add up. Of course they will tell you "but the incentives for FTBs" yada yada which have done nothing but to push prices up even further out of reach for our younger domestic cohort. This may sound harsh and I may get a ear bashing from the left leaning here but its the simple truth we are importing people into the country housing them and all of this is been done on the backs of us living here with a huge % not being able to afford to rent or buy forceing them to leave its shameful.

One of the parties has a track record of creating a housing crisis, the other has a track record of crashing the economy and housebuilding

Prioritising getting out of the 'rent trap' is of course good advice.

But you're totally wrong in your comparison between property and other assets. Have a study:

https://hotelivory.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/a-very-long-view-on-house-prices/

Or just think for a moment - over the very long term, how could the value of property rise faster than the value of businesses that generate the wealth we spend on it?

"There is absolutely no benefit to extending it to the second hand market. There are few second hand homes available in the first instance and by definition it can't stimulate any building there. So what is it supposed to do?"

It is supposed to do what every other policy the state has enacted in the last decade; it is supposed to inflate the housing market.

I think you’re both right here but making completely different points

Like for like. €10,000 invested in a house or equities via a pension with 40% tax relief. Pension is going to be massive winner over time. Not really an argument.

However, the reason a house is usually the biggest wealth builder for average people is because they leverage up 10x to buy it. No normal person would ever take that level of risk outside of buying their home. Usually that massive risk pays off in the long term.

Comparing absolute returns of a 10x leverage investment and unleveraged investment without adjusting for risk doesn’t make sense.

See this is where people need to think. Not one party in the last 30/40 years maybe longer have come into government and done what they said. These boyos will tell you anything you want to hear to get in get their power, their cash and their pensions and then they will concentrate and prioritise their own pocket first and then the parish pump politics in favor of the greater good for the country so they have a strong chance of re-election. In the mean time the real power is with the perma-gov manderins who can run rings around any given minister of the day. You only need to look at bike sheds, chilrens hospital and RTE to name but a few very recent issues that show politicians have no power here and no matter who gets in their will be zero change. I have said it before until people have real accountability and punishment as in the sack with no pension or if they promise to do 10 things while in government by adding, taking away or changing something then their pension should reflect this if they get 3 done out of the 10 in their 5 years then they should only get 30% of what they could of got. This is the only way to get these spoofers to actually do what they are getting voted in on. Until something happens to the way the of politics runs in this country I wont be voting as there is no viable candidate for me they will spin you a good yarn but not one politician to date has done what they have been voted in for and of course no punishment. Before I get but they wont get voted in again look at the above all they have to do is keep their constituents happyish and if they are voted out there is always Europe, local counsels, seanad and other little areas to keep their snouts at through not to mention the pension for 5 years of work that is better than a very high % of private sector pensions.

Good luck to those voting I hope to be proven wrong over the next 5 years with whoever gets in but while the status quo remains I will stay skeptical.

We are not getting a metro. The Irish state cannot build a hospital without it ballooning in cost and time taken. The competency to build something like a metro simply is not there. The Apple money will be squandered. This is what happens when there are no consequences for failure.

Which will still drive up prices.

Well it would just mean 2nd hand homes coming up to the same level as new ones as I say it means that individuals would get the financial advantage as well as property developers. But yeah it would bring prices up being honest. IMO all supports should be removed FTB, help to buy, HAP, the lot and let the market find its natural price but no one in gov will do this as it would be seen as taking away something that is now ingrained in people same as USC which was supposed to be temporary is now going to be with us forever more. The likes of the rental credit may have shown a way forward by giving it to them in their wage as in a Mortgage/Renting credit and for a lot more than it currently is. The average of rents/mortgage repayments made in the country from the previous year should be found and that should be given back to each individual working over the course of the year. It could be pro rata as well so say we use a 38 hour as standard if you work 19hours you get 50% of it and so forth. So if the average that was paid out was 30k for a mortgage/rent then peoples tax free allowance should be topped up to by this amount help people pay for both rent and a mortgage. IMO a much fairer way and use of peoples taxes it would actually benefit the induvial first and foremost. For those who will never afford their own home there should be housing provided but under no circumstance should they ever own it when the individual/couple passes then the house should come back into government ownership for the next person who needs it. But its time people paying the bills who actually get up off their holes and work get some bang for their buck.

Its become much harder to buy in Spain/Portugal now as backlash against foreign buyers and airBNBs is seeing govts take action against non-national buyers of property.

Its still doable, but not nearly so good value or easy as before.

The majority of parents in this country do not expatriate themselves to retire in the sun, most live and die here in their oversized house. There is a definite need for sizing down accommodation, but it doesn't exist.

This gives us a window into how things would have panned out during the noughties had FG been in power. I suspect much worse

How they get away with being labelled the party of business and innovation while under there watch there main costs have shot to the moon: housing/property, wages, energy, regulations

Unfortunately, for some people (some VERY influential people), this is absolutely great news. I'm sure some investments will be paying out a few dividends before Christmas.

He meant Lego builds.