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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,631 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    The demographic shifts in terms of percentages of different demographics between 2020 and 2024.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-election-results-map-shift-red/

    You have a big chunk of moderates/independents who very likely could have voted Biden in 2020 (not necessarily being a Biden supporter but just voted for Biden/Dems) but then switched to Trump for this election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,743 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    There are people who constantly invoke this "far left" idea, but I don't know who these people are supposed to be. Especially in relation to the US.

    On the matter of being against what Israel is doing over there, that doesn't make one "left", "far left" "medium left" or any kind of "left". Being against Israel's murderous horror in Gaza isn't about right and left, it's about right and wrong and I very much dislike this idea that's prevalent amongst some quarters that if you're against Israel's ethnic cleansing that you're somehow left wing of some description and if you're pro Israel you're right wing.

    It's an extremely bad narrative. There are people who are against Israel's slaughterhouse that come from all around the political spectrum. Framing it as a left vs right thing is extremely shallow. Plenty of people on the right side of the aisle are against what Israel are doing too.

    Now, I'm sure that there are people who were very angry with the Democrat's hypocritical stance re: Israel and it may have had the determining factor on whether they stayed at home or not. What isn't determinable is how "left" they lean. But, frankly, that's a better reason for a Dem voter to stay at home than simply disliking the candidate as was the situation with Clinton or worse still just being complacent about Clinton winning which was also the case with a large number of voters in 2016.

    Until all the facts are available to study and the reasons for Harris's loss become clearer, blaming it on some nebulous "far left" seems to be completely baseless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,694 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    Right but those are percentages. As I understand it, absolute numbers of votes show that Trump didn’t really do any better than in 2020 (not sure about 2016), and that the reason Kamala lost was because fewer voters turned out for her than for Biden in 2020.

    In which case the undecideds (and possibly some Dems) just stayed home or went 3rd party (though that doesn’t seem to have been a massive phenomenon AFAIK)

    So I don’t think there’s much evidence of previous Biden voters actually turning out for Trump.

    That said, I haven’t really followed the detail of votes in all states so there could be exceptions to that.

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,205 ✭✭✭amandstu


    You haven't really answered my quesion except to say that pro palestine doesn't equate to "left" and pro israel doesn't equate to "right".

    You also seem to be saying that "left wing" as a description is applied "nebulously"

    I will ask again .What would be a clear (non nebulous" way to describe people as "left wing"(in America of course as this is an American based thread) so that we have an idea if we are talking about the same thing?

    Someone in this thread suggested that the "extreme left wing" had abstained from voting for Harris.

    I am wondering who these people were (however nebulously they may have been described)

    Do they exist or are the numbers fictitious in that we need to compare democratic turnout from 2016 rather than 2020( covid times)

    Did Trump depress Republican turnout in 2020 with his spurious claims about mail in voting?

    Or is this block of some 10 million voters sitting on their arses and effectively voting for Trump a real phenomenon ,whether or not they can be called "left wing" or ,as someone ( @volchitsa ?) said possibly independents?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,624 ✭✭✭nachouser


    People didn't turn up to vote for a woman. It's that simple and obvious.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,872 ✭✭✭Jack Daw


    It's hilarious watching all the lefties on Twitter now advocating for and moving to Bluesky social.

    Basically they couldn't bare it that people were allowed to call them out on their bullshit on twitter and they want to migrate to another echo chamber.

    Bluesky if it gets bigger will become the same as twitter though as the world isn't a place where only lefty views are allowed and where no calling out of bulshit is tolerated so they'll just end up where they started because they are so full of themselves can't possibly imagine that people might disagree with them and can't tolerate people disagreeing with them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    No, we don't define it that way. In the US, you must have looked for work in the previous four weeks or you drop off the employed and unemployed stats.

    So the US has a bunch of different numbers. U-3 being the lowest and very unlike Ireland's count of it. The U-6 number is most similar to Ireland's, because it includes long-term proper unemployed and out of the workforce, and it's currently at 7.7% in the US.

    The larger number from Ludwig is still important because this isn't an economics conversation but a political one and those people, with bad jobs and not enough hours struggling to get by, still vote.

    Like I am not talking shlt here. This has been discussed for decades on this website. I didn't invent it for this thread.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Over 71 million people voted for her. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016.

    I find it hard to believe there is a significant number of Democrats who would stay at home solely because she's a woman.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,205 ✭✭✭amandstu


    .....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,355 ✭✭✭trashcan


    I suppose he could do that. Could you imagine Trumps reaction ! More interestingly, I saw a video by a fairly left wing American comedian/YouTuber called Lee Camp, where he listed a number of things that Biden could do now , without the Senate or Congress, even if they only last 3 months before Trump reversed them. One was introduce Medicare for all straightaway. Now I don’t know if that’s even feasible in the timeframe, and of course Biden would never do it, but could you imagine if he did, the job Trump would have to take that away from people once they had it ?
    Fantasy land of course, but would be great to see.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,743 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    You haven't really answered my quesion except to say that pro palestine doesn't equate to "left" and pro israel doesn't equate to "right".

    I don't know who this, so called, "far left" is supposed to be. Who are they? Doubly so in relation to America where there isn't any real kind of left wing sentiment in the political sphere. The phantom words of "far left", "socialist", "communist" are constantly invoked in certain quarters, but the people that those labels are targeted at are usually anything but. According to some Trump supporters Biden and Harris are "far left". Is that what the "far left" looks like? Because, to me, Biden, Harris and Democrat Party in their current form are a mildly conservative entity and possess little in the way of left wing sentiment.

    In addition, I hear also that the "far left" are the people who are against Israel's slaughter in Gaza. But, again, who are they?

    You also seem to be saying that "left wing" as a description is applied "nebulously"

    On the contrary, I said that the term "far left" is often applied to a nebulous group and usually by people who wish to paint a disingenuous picture. The term is thrown about with great ease. As I mentioned according to some people Joe Biden and the Democrats are "far left" and have been called that on numerous occasions, which to any serious and honest observer of politics in America is truly nebulous application. I've seen Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez called "far left". Are they? Because they don't look that way to me.

    I will ask again .What would be a clear (non nebulous" way to describe people as "left wing"(in America of course as this is an American based thread) so that we have an idea if we are talking about the same thing?

    Isn't that what I am asking too? I don't know who this "far left" is that has, supposedly, scuppered Harris' campaign. Who are they? I don't know. I'd like the clear description as well.

    The suggestion, which sparked my original question, was that it was the, so called, "far left" who stymied Harris' chance of victory because of their opposition to Israel and their slaughter in Gaza. But there's also a lot of middle the roads Democrat voters who would have been firmly against their party's support for Israel too and numerous undecideds too.

    And until we know, for sure, what the reasons were that voters denied their vote to Harris, putting it down to the "far left" seems quite spurious to me.

    Someone in this thread suggested that the "extreme left wing" had abstained from voting for Harris.

    I am wondering who these people were (however nebulously they may have been described)

    So am I. That was the point of my post #16361



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,205 ✭✭✭amandstu


    So two questions (maybe 3)

    1 : What was the size of the group that changed their vote from 2020 to 2024 away from voting Dem?

    2: Is it a disparate group or a coherent group ?

    3 : What does "far left" mean in terms of American politics? (does it have several meanings and are they objective or subjective ?)

    They have a video on CNN where Ocasio Cortez asks some of her voters why they voted for her but also for Trump and one said that they both "cared about the working class"

    Really depressing .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,658 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Kamala spent her whole campaign going on about the middle class, being from it herself as she said every chance to got, so it's hardly a surprise that working class people didn't feel like she cared about them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,404 ✭✭✭dogbert27


    Not really.

    America's only hope is that he sees out his term so that JD Vance does not become president.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,404 ✭✭✭dogbert27


    When you are so far to the extreme right then centrists appear to be the far left and those who are left of centre are the extreme left!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,045 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    AOC asked her Instagram followers, those who voted for her and Trump to tell her why.

    She's posted screenshot of many of the responses. Single small case study, but something to look at.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 291 ✭✭advisemerite


    Trump had a super win. 312 Electoral votes, won the popular vote too. Republicans took the Senate and are on the verge of the lower house too. You couldn't make this up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,045 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    You couldn't make this up.

    The polls were neck and neck up until the final few days where some were reported to favor Harris.

    Republicans entered the race with a House majority and were always projected to take the Senate.

    ThThe only thing surprising about last Tuesday, was the popular vote win for Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 432 ✭✭bewareofthedog


    Honestly, how divisive and childish are these people… Don't they realize they are part of the problem? Yer one on the right is a Yale "psychiatrist"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭CliffHangeroner


    These people are mentally damaged, for me it's unfair taking advantage of that for views. How a TV network can allow this stuff to air is frankly bonkers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    That's pretty clearly directed at people who simply aren't comfortable with those family members because of the direct impact this election will have on them. Eg if I was LGBT I most likely wouldn't be comfortable interacting with family members that backed Trump. You are not obliged to give somebody your time, particularly if it could be negative for your own mental health.

    Pretty telling that they didn't include the full clip btw.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,475 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    Trump and Joe Biden to meet this Wednesday at the oval office.

    Biden has vowed that there will be a peaceful transfer of power...because that's what trump did, didn't he?

    Trump will need to sign a pledge to say he will avoid conflicts of interest, because he's very ethical, isn't he?

    Like Asking a bear not to **** in the woods.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,911 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    So no lgbt voted for Trump? Telling that you think you speak for an entire spectrum of people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I was referring to in the context of the video which was in relation to crisis calls from LGBT teens. I'm very much so assuming some LGBT people voted for Trump. At no point in my comment did I say "all LGBT people", I'm referring to LGBT people who are particularly hurt by the result which is plenty. But good job at trying to put words in my mouth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,809 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    I don't think it's surprising that LGBT youth are worried about the result of the election.

    Also, it's good that they express their distress in this way rather than, say, mounting an attack on the Capitol leading to the deaths of 5 people. But I'm probably just a "lefty".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,325 ✭✭✭randd1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,911 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I could repeat verbatim what you said but it's in black and white so no need.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,325 ✭✭✭randd1


    It's far more likely that they don't want to see right wing propaganda pieces or plain old racist content because the new algorithms push that when they're simply looking at a recipe for pasta bake or a funny video.

    Some people don't actually want to engage with things laced with politics, left or right, and leave platforms that force it upon them.

    It's hardly new that people don't like bullsh*t flung at them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    Cool, point to where I said all LGBT people. You've inferred something I never said.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,911 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Seeing all the comments under her videoof people thinking she's going to announce the election was rigged is insightful.

    For me it really confirms that the extremes on both sides are very much two sides of the same coin.



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