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USA 2024 presidential election

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭CliffHangeroner


    The bookies knew.

    All the rubbish about wokeness, Ukraine, the border, the climate, the joke about Puerto Rico, the Russia interference hoax etc…. means very little to Americans. They also could care less about Trump's character which any old idiot could have told you the last few years but yet the democrats insisted on focusing on it again and again.

    They are so dumb honestly it defies belief.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    That story is BS.

    No company can buy a years stock for the cost of the staff bonus. Or even a months supply of stock for that much.

    That is totally made up. (Except the bit about not paying the bonus!)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Negative campaign from the Democrats?

    In what universe were the Republicans not running a negative campaign?
    Trump was openly calling his opponent 'retarded'.

    How about a definition of what counts as a negative campaign, and some assessment of how both sides campaigns stack up against that. For every 'negative' comment from a Democrat, I'm sure either more or far worse can be found from a Republican.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Dogsdodogsstuff


    Thats my point though, Trumps victory is down to Dems collapse as much , if not more then the economy but all the talk is about the economy. Like I said, there’s no polling of people who didn’t vote , so the exit polls don’t reflect over 10 million people who voted the last time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    I'm not out of touch, I'm fully aware of the thought process that goes on. It doesn't make them any less wrong.

    I could use a Simpsons meme now, but not sure if they are allowed in this thread.

    But yea, you are out of touch.

    Harris lost the election, Trump won it, and he won it on the fundamentals of the economy and the cost of living.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,397 ✭✭✭ebbsy


    And Harris sat back while women have babies in basements in Ukraine, and pets are left behind.

    Russia and Israel waited around for a weak USA, and they got it.

    Roll on the son I would say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Trump's proposals will do nothing for those fundamentals, expert analysis was that they would be far worse.


    If you disagree please explain how they will be better than Biden-Harris type approach.
    And if you disagree, then you seem to be accepting that Trump duped the electorate \ won on perception \ simplicity of his message - not on 'fundamentals'.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,478 ✭✭✭yagan


    I think something did die, the US era.

    The maga mandate leaves all allies in limbo, it forces nations to take precautions to diversify against the dollar. Ireland is one of the largest holders of US debt btw.

    The gold price started another upward assent in March once it was clear Trump would be the Republican candidate again.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I'm not arguing against the fact he won and clearly he did so on the basis of the cost of living. It wasn't on the fundamentals of the economy though cause clearly no one gives a **** about that.

    Electorates are wrong about lots of things. It's a politicians job to adapt to that and try and reach them. I'm not a politicians so I'm not trying to do that. I'm just saying they are illogical and counterproductive people and that that is irritating.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You're asking the wrong question. MAGA exists to benefit the elite and the establishment by screwing over everyone else. Enriching the working and middle classes is the opposite of MAGA's mission.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Cheap shots backed up by nothing.

    Biden-Harris didn't sit back. They send billions of aid.
    Unless you think they should have sent in US forces to directly engage?

    Meanwhile Trump twice tried to hold up aid to Ukraine purely for cynical domestic political reasons.

    A weak US? Trump has given indications of not assisting NATO members if he thinks they didn't "pay their way".
    He effectively surrendered to the Taliban in the dreadful deal signed under his Presidency.

    Israel wouldn't have to wait for a 'weak' US, under Trump they would have everything they asked for, and more … Trump is the one urging them to get the job done and was critical of the Biden administration for not getting weapons to Israel quick enough.

    Your claims don't stand up to any scrutiny.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,216 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,478 ✭✭✭yagan


    No US administration has ever been good for Palestinians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    How can it be "more so" on Biden. Trump was the one who negotiated it. Trump was the one who allowed the release of 5000 Taliban fighters and wound down US forces. Trump left Biden with a poison pill he either had abandon the deal, or commit to a US surge to re-establish positions.

    Regardless, in response to the original point, the deal by Trump was a demonstration of 'weakness.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,216 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Biden knew it was a disastrous deal, why did he allow it to go ahead. He knew, well not to the extent, how bad it was likely going to end up. He's as culpable as the other idiot for that deal



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Again, the main point being, it's absurd to suggest Israel waited for a 'weak' US or that Trump would have been 'stronger' with them. This is the same Trump who ok'd the embassy move.

    Which administration would be better \ less worse for Palestinians?
    Trump or Biden-Harris?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    10 years ago, a basket of food in the US cost 50% less than Ireland. Now the same basket costs 30% more than Ireland.

    For the people on a lower wage, certain foods have become unaffordable. Although this trend was happening even before Biden came to power. Biden could have done something about it but didn't. However I can't see Trump improve this situation. His trickle down economics is not going to cut grocery prices at all.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    That's an utterly absurd way of measuring inflationary impact. The value relative to Ireland is meaningless at the best of times and is massively impacted by fx.

    What could Biden have done?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭rock22


    A lot of the analysis we are now seeing is based on exits polls. On TV news, I think CNN, on hte morning after one commentator opined that exit polls are not worth the paper they are written on. His point was that they are based voters coming from the polling station being willing to discuss with a total stranger how they voted and why. Such voters are a self selected group and bear no relationship to the general electorate. It is one of the reason why , at one point, according to the exit polls, the 'protection of democracy' was the number one issue for voters, 'abortion right' and economy were second and third. Clearly , in that poll, more democratic voters were willing to talk with the pollster.

    Anecdotally though, there is some evidence that other issues were at play. Many Latino and black males said they would not vote for a woman. I just heard the same point on RTE Clare Byrne this minute, that not only misogyny amongst men, many women in US also do not believe that a woman should be in charge.

    And as @Dogsdodogsstuff said, these polls do not capture those who did not go out to vote. A lot is being made about Harris being a weak candidate. But the truth is that a man who has already put American democracy in jeopardy , who has used hate speech to describe a lot of his opponents, who has threatened to weaponise the justice department against his political opponents , was seen as a better candidate by the American electorate. A lot of those were not interested in the economy, good or bad. Or at least not interested enough to actually look at the data which showed the US as one of strongest economies post Corvid, in the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    No it's not. This is an Irish forum so I used Ireland as a comparison. I could go through consumer price indexes for both countries to be more scientific about it, but comparing shopping baskets will show exactly the same thing in simpler terms.

    So what are you saying? Are you saying there is nothing to see here in terms of food prices in the USA? And it wasn't a factor in the election?

    And you are wrong about fx. US food prices are probably the least impacted in the Western world by fx.

    Radio's, laptops, smart-phones, steel, wine and Scotch Whiskey maybe, but not food.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Biden can't be as 'culpable' for culpable to have any meaning.

    Trump negotiated an awful deal from a position of relative strength.
    He weakened the position that Biden inherited.
    You can criticise Biden for not doing more to correct the mess, but the weak hand he was dealt was all on Trump.

    The primary culpability clearly lies with Trump for signing the deal in the first place, a deal that meant it was very difficult to reverse it on the ground even if later events showed it to be unwise.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,216 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Of course you can use culpability in both referances. Trump was culpable for agreeing a crap deal, and Biden was culpable in not reversing the terms of that deal and keeping a presence on the ground.

    With the exception of the obvious (Afghans) it was the Brits who were fcuked over also



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Food prices aren't impacted by fx. The comparison with Irish food prices is. Had US prices risen exactly in line with Ireland they would seem significantly more expensive compared to Ireland as the dollar has strengthened significantly compared to the euro. This is before we get into the whole purchasing power parity element - a basket of food in Poland is a higher percentage compared to an Irish one then it was 10 years ago but that's a good thing for them!

    Obviously there has been significant inflation in the US and obviously it was a key factor. I'm merely saying your method of illustrating that inflation is quite poor. The comparison to Ireland is meaningless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    I don't agree. 60% of a typical Irish basket is not affected by fx either.

    Bread, butter, potatoes meat, milk, most veg, cheese. etc mostly all home grown.

    Maybe prices influenced by the EU somewhat. Comparing to Ireland is perfectly valid for the point I was making.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    You can't compare an Irish basket and a US one without it being impacted by fx! 10 years ago a 100€ Irish basket was 138$ equivalent and now its 107$ - if they had been the exact same price 10 years ago and neither changed, the US one would now seem almost 30% more expensive in comparison.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,098 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I wonder how many of those objected to the bipartisan policy of supplying billions in military aid, and providing diplomatic cover, to Israel amidst large scale massacres of Palestinians?

    These are people who refused to vote for Harris but did not switch to Trump.

    I find that a more plausible explanation than the current fake-narrative that these 15 million potential Democrat voters "hate women".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,478 ✭✭✭yagan


    Just a note on food quality in the US. Quality has always been more affordable in Ireland, even when I emigrated to the US in the 80s.

    Their food was cheap and poor quality then, but now it's expensive and still poor quality according to my US relatives who come to Ireland often.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    Here are the actual increases for some of the items in a typical basket.

    When you see the graph for an item going down, it doesn't mean the price has actually decreased. Just means it hasn't gone up as much. Just saying in case you start arguing about that.😀

    image.png


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,656 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    This seems to be a pretty good article on the difference between national economic figures and what's going on at the pointy end, and it's not only about inflation.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/economy-us-election-consumer-sentiment-1.7371186

    That said, inflation going down doesn't mean things get cheaper. It just means they're not getting expensive as quickly.

    Different article:

    image.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,397 ✭✭✭ebbsy


    Very little analysis out there of why Harris lost.

    Democrats blaming Trump.

    It was a total smashing.



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