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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,384 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Harris campaign will also get remembered for the popstars on her stage.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,901 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I don't know if that's necessarily true. As one commentator observed, Democrats spending any effort on Texas was incredibly foolish and visions of a Reagan-esque blowout were delusional. The issue is in the numbers, Texas had a 14-point spread, it wasn't even close, whilst four years ago it was 6%. It's already been observed that Tejanos are not entirely pre-disposed to Democrats, and they are starting to increase their move to Republican. So which part of the demographics are turning Texas to a swing state?

    In the meantime, outside of the battleground states, Harris wasn't within 10 points of the Republicans in currently safe red States, whilst Trump got to within 10 points in a number of Blue ones. Even New York came to 11 points, and the gap between Trump and Harris in NJ or IL, both also very safe blue states, dropped to 5 and 7 points respectively. Those are massive inroads, four years ago the gaps for the three states were 23, 15 and 17. That's a disastrous shift in the wrong direction for Democrats. Got it, one election isn't a trend, but you would expect that if the answer was a demographic shift as positive for Democrats, it at least shouldn't get much worse.

    So, demographics… It's not the increase in hispanics, who aren't breaking as heavily Democratic as they used to. Is it the next generation of people? Trump got more young men's votes than Harris, though fewer young women's. It's not a clean break that direction either. Plus, and I realise this is a bit of a shocker, even immigrants from other States are kindof liking it in Texas.

    https://chismstrategies.com/survey-despite-gop-fears-new-texans-are-pushing-the-state-to-the-right/

    If your point is that states change from swing to safe or vice versa, fully agreed. Ohio and Florida are additional cases in point. But I don't know if I would say Texas will be a swing state in the next decade or two unless the positions of the parties change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,001 ✭✭✭growleaves


    In these times many Latinos are converted to Protestanism, both within South America (Brazil has a growing Protestant population) and after arriving in the United States. Lots of Catholics switch to become Evangelicals, it's a massive trend.

    My intuition (I don't know if this is correct) tells me: don't discount the effect of decades and decades of 'anti-racist' teaching, which presumably doesn't just affect whites.

    If you are Latino, but grew up in the Unites States, you may have been told every single day of your life - by schoolteachers, authority figures, Hollywood, TV etc. - that race doesn't matter and racialism is wrong.

    Despite this it never occurred to anyone that Latinos wouldn't act as one giant, Spanish-speaking Volksgemeinschaft extending racial solidarity and loyalty to foreign Latins from outside of America.

    Instead what's seems to have happened is Latinos have adopted a variant of citizenism eschewing purely racial concerns. Why wouldn't they, considering that they are in a country where people are told - seemingly 24/7 - that this is what they should be doing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,773 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    And therein lies the problem for America and Americans. Too many simple minded idiots are easily swayed by the shallow TV show nature of their political system (if one can call it that). That a lying, felonious, creep like Trump can find his way to the White House is truly indicative of a sick, sick, nation that's more enthralled by spectacle then they are subject to common sense.

    'Idiocracy' wasn't just a movie. It was a warning.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,466 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Johnathan Martin from Politico on CNN this evening - excellent appraisal of why Harris failed- a lot of the reasons already covered here including :

    Not being clear on what she’d bring to the presidency

    Spending too much time bringing up things like Jan6th

    Preaching to the “converted” instead of reaching out and connecting with the swing and undecided voters


    Mot recognising how the social media such as podcasts could have helped her instead of shying away from them and may well have reached her undecided audiences

    She didn’t embrace populism - it wasn’t the natural language for Harris to use - but also there just isn’t the numbers in appealing to the suburbs anymore - there’s a lot more people elsewhere - maybe less well educated but they need to be brought in to the fold too



    A lot of other reasons but interesting that his key reason above are similar to what’s put forward here too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,384 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,384 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The images of the many popstars on the Harris stage was indeed indicative of an inward unthinking nation. That's for sure.

    The plight of the people in Gaza was certainly not on their agenda.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,802 ✭✭✭threeball


    People are overthinking this, looking at policies or lack of them. The reality is all of that matters very little in America. They like a showman so they vote for the more entertaining or charismatic of the individuals. I can only think of 1 instance in the last 45years where this wasn't the case and that was Bush v Dukakis and everyone agreed that Dukakis campaign was a bit of a car crash. Biden it could be argued is more charismatic than Trump and people were sick of his shít anyway.

    You'll only see a female President is she can work a stage and her opposite number can't. Her policies or beliefs won't matter a jot and she'll have to walk a finer line than her male equivalent.

    Just look at all this rally bullshít that goes on. Where else would you see it, people rocking up in their 10s of thousands. They want a show.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Nah, Hillary wasn't remembered for that either. She was remembered for "pokemon go to the polls" or her bottle of hot sauce levels of pandering

    Harris will probably be remembered for "I can't think of anything I'd do differently"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,868 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    It wasn't just his brand (but there certainly was that) he also married his campaign to the Affordable Health Care Act.

    IDK what the real postmortem is yet or anything but I do know that Harris' agenda items were small by contrast: a home credit here a child credit there, reintroducing the border bill, but she didn't have any seminal legislation that her campaign rode on, compared to Obama. The ACA was a Big **** Deal, and when it gets repealed you're gonna see a lot of confused people wondering where their healthcare disappeared to and why they're suddenly getting denied for "pre-existing conditions," the healthcare rights that the ACA brought in were monumental. And it's the first thing they'll try and repeal for the 80th time in January. Just call it Obamacare, blow the dogwhistles, and there's no McCains left in Congress to stop it anymore.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,649 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The rally concept is indeed quite bizarre and very American. However, it is simply objectively true that her rallies were far more successful so I'm not sure that particular line of thought works.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,396 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But Trump is part of the 'elite'. He is a billionaire and is surrounded by similar - you have two competing elites in the US, Trump is merely part of the right wing conservative one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭Hyperbollix


    Many an analogy made of the American Empire and the Roman Empire. The Romans were easily satisfied and distracted with bread and circuses as well. Nero was very popular among the Roman plebs, even after the city burned down!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 950 ✭✭✭thegame983




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭yagan


    Not every Trump supporter is trash, but from the ones I'm unfortunately related they're certainly unhinged.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭Jack Daw


    His celebrities are all hasbeens that people can barely remember.They weren't really a key aspect of his campaign.The democrats genuinely seemed to think their celebrities would make a difference and were a key aspect of their campaign.

    Also the impact that Trump could make is he might get both parties to reconsider what they are about and focus on real issues again.

    The election has probably been more about the democrats being rejected than Trump being voted in, the democrats vote has dropped massively, Trumps is about the same as it was.A large number of people voting for Trump I imagine don't think he will do much but they just couldn't stand the democrats and figure he's the lesser of 2 evils for the next few years. Hopefully the Democrats learn lessons from this election and get rid of their focus on identity politics and just focus on issues that affect the working classes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,558 ✭✭✭PsychoPete


    Not sure it was posted already but "the red wave" was strong

    Screenshot_20241107-163902_X.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,590 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    His overall vote might have been around the same but the trends in this election are very different. The swing in the Hispanic vote is massive. He flipped places that haven't voted Republican in decades and even longer. For example he won Star County in Texas. 97% Hispanic which has the longest streak of voting Democrat in the country. I certainly don't think they're aren't some very big shifts that Democrats should be very worried about.He won a majority of Hispanic men and a sizeable chunk of Hispanic women, Democrats seriously need to stop taking those votes for granted.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭Hyperbollix


    Yep. It's absolutely fcuked and they will probably manage to turn it around on the Democrats so that the idiots who voted for this will somehow think "the commie Dems" took their healthcare.

    There is only one way out of this. The Democrats have to move away from corporate interest and actually represent the ordinary worker again. Considering the amount of money swilling around and the fact that US politicians can get very wealthy whether they are in office or opposition, I don't see that happening anytime soon. What's far more likely is they try to mirror Trump and start moving more right. It's a total shítshow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,441 ✭✭✭halkar


    It will be interesting to watch what Elon Musk will do about government spending after what he did with twitter 🤪 Between Trump and Musk there will be a lot of popcorn moments next 4 years. I am not fan of Trump but there was no other choice. Biden should never have run for presidency rather than dropping half way through the campaign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    NM voted GOP once since Reagan.

    AZ voted blue twice since 1948. Once in 1992 and the other in 2020. Very much leans Red.

    VA is interesting as it was usually a red state, but it is after getting wealthier and more educated so its trending blue more recently.

    That is now the new divide, education.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,637 ✭✭✭nachouser


    Not to say that Harris winning would have been any different, but it's mad numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Yeah I won't think you will see a New New Deal in my lifetime now. The courts are fcuked over for a lifetime now too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,859 ✭✭✭Real Donald Trump




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,165 ✭✭✭Zardoz


    Trump will deregulate at an enormous rate now to stimulate business and growth.

    The Democrats brought nothing but massive disproportionate regulation to business and absolutely nothing to overcome it on the other side.

    Its an utterly corrupt agenda too with the Democrats - broadening regulation and appointing their cronies to senior regulatory positions and blocking anything that they cant control.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,210 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Does nobody think it worth a mention that America has voted in a climate denier?

    That was my number one concern(apart from the communal depravity of voting in such a lowlife)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,773 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    But Kid Rock, Hulk Hogan, Joe Rogan, even TV celebs like Trump himself get a pass from you yeah.

    🙄



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,773 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Yeah, this bizarre narrative that's been woven whereby the likes of Trump, Musk, et al are supposedly fighting an "elite" is really an exposure of just how stupid some people are. And if they're not stupid, then they're just liars.

    Trump and his cronies are the very definition of the elite.



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