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Tesla Talk

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 673 ✭✭✭DrPsychia


    They’ve promised a ~3x improvement with v12.5, but according to crowdsourced data (from the people who deal with this stuff daily), v12.5 is actually worse than v12.3. "Progress"

     “miles between disengagement.” Pretty convenient that they won’t release any data on that, though might be because improvements are taking a scenic route?

    Then you have ASS(actually smart summon). I've seen a few posts on reddit where users damaged their cars because Tesla ASS didn't see obvious obstacles/objects. "Progress"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,530 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    The reality is they're bumping the limits of their hardware so they're modifying behaviour of assessment of the same data sources. Which can result in worse experiences or no change at all.

    (Been there with large levels of user negative feedback based on slight change to assessments)

    They don't possess the technology in operation to improve this experience in any meaningful way.

    What I still fundamental do not get is why he chose to not have the best data sources available to compute on. It's still unclear. My presumption is license subs on the hardware perhaps.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,650 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    It's simple. Cost. Cameras are cheaper than radar which is cheaper than lidar.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,493 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Not a cost issue. Lidar and radar are very cheap these days and in fact most Teslas that have FSD already have radar. Which is no longer used for FSD beta.

    Tesla's vision (pardon the punch) now is machine learning based on human vision. That's why there is no place for radar or lidar or any other senses that humans don't have

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,650 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    It's absolutely cost based. Yes there are legacy hardware cars out there with radar but from 2021-2 onwards the cars have not been equipped with radar.

    Half the year I'm bing bonged with unavailable cameras due to daylight, night time, or rain. Or fog. It just doesn't work. Cameras require a lot of rendering to change the footage into a depth perception. With no other inputs it can reach decisions quickly but without those inputs it's not always going to be right. It's like an eastern european oligarchy I used to work for. They did 80% or more of stuff super quickly and cost effectively by focusing on automation, but without focusing enough on the edge cases it just doesn't work 100% of the time.

    That's fine in some industries but I don't want a car that can drive itself 80-99% of the time, if it doesn't have a steering wheel.

    In order to be legally approved, especially outside of beta tests in geolocked locactions like Waymo have, the tech must be bullet proof. Not just "better than humans", but a zero fail rate. Cameras alone can not and will not do this. Unless and until the tesla approach changes we will have announcements every few years that FSD HW v60 is actually not fully capable, and retrofits to HW61 will be offered.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,493 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    You didn't buy FSD though, did you? We've already established that FSD cars now have heated cameras or can get a free upgrade to them.

    A zero fail rate of any self driving system is naive. It is simply not possible. Demonstrably safer than humans is all that is needed for a system to get regulatory approval.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,821 ✭✭✭maidhc


    if the self driving isn’t at zero fail rate, then it’s pointless. I don’t want to be in a car that slams into a wall every 100k or 200k miles, and if I need to watch it attentively to intervene then it’s easier to drive the bloody thing.

    I won’t claim to be an amazing driver, but in 20 years and many miles I have had one crash that was due to a bad surface on one of the then new m50 junctions. I am all for my car having driving aids like automatic braking, but who would put their lives and those of their family in the hands of a computer that may actually and literally crash!!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,650 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Why would I buy FSD? I don't have money to burn. Heated cameras don't help with sun or night or fog though. I really don't think all cameras are heated.

    I understand the thought of demonstrably better than humans, because that was me initially too, but I can't see any regulator approving an automated driving system without a steering wheel that has any risk of accident. It must be fool proof.

    This is why the idea of real FSD (ie a car that can legally drive you home from the pub, and the insurance is from the OEM not you) is still years away from mass market proof of concept let alone mass market retail. The closest to it are not even Tesla either. Ford, GM, Mercedes and waymo in their own way are closer. All of these allow - today - hands off driving. Mercedes also offer insurance for when their self driving is in use. Waymo drive around full self driving without a driver today, just geo locked. Ford and GM have blue/super cruise allowing hands off driving on geolocked roads. Tesla, meanwhile, has a hissy fit when there's a bit of fog or sun or rain.

    I'm sorry Unkel but I just don't see where you are getting this idea that Tesla are pushing the envelope and going to release FSD soon. Proper FSD. If I were on my last dollar and had to bet that any company would have fully approved FSD for sale in 5 years to the general public - fully approved means level 5 with no steering wheel and no requirement for a driving license or insurance - I would bet every last cent that it would not be Tesla.

    Autopilot and FSD are great driving aids, but that's it.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 18,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭slave1


    I have HW4 and cameras constantly blocked this time of the year, I assume humidity, all Highlands are HW4

    My stuff on Adverts, mostly Tesla Pre Highland Model 3

    Public Profile active ads for slave1



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,493 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Your family will demand you use full self driving once they know it is safer than you. Precisely for safety reasons.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,821 ✭✭✭maidhc


    I agree, in the meantime even by the most optimistic of estimates my family would be all wiped out in a horror collision within a few years of using it exclusively, and therein lies the issue!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,530 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    You'll eat all of these words ,all of them.

    Down a well of baseless fluff at this point.

    'Vision fsd' ain't happening. You can bookmark that. Alongside Elon giving anyone hw for free.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,493 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    I quoted that for posterity. We shall see 😁

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,018 ✭✭✭MojoMaker


    Pity human drivers aren't within a country mile of "zero fail rate".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,821 ✭✭✭maidhc


    they are an order of magnitude better than computers. There is also a control thing. A human can drive different when they want to be safer, eg most people drive slower when their children are in the car.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,018 ✭✭✭MojoMaker


    Really? Humans are shown daily to be quite poor at driving (and getting worse).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,493 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Market reacting very positively on Trump re-election. TSLA up 13% already on the day. Pity I didn't have the appetite to take the risk on it 😂

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,821 ✭✭✭maidhc


    Yes… maybe if you include the stats of the guys who drive down the m50 the wrong way or head home after a gallon of beer you will get the fsd experience.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,050 ✭✭✭JOL1


    You made a choice, declared it to all and it has not worked out as you would have hopedthaat is the risk of the market…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,050 ✭✭✭JOL1


    Choosing extremes does little to advance a reasoned discussion.

    The point is whether reasoned and rationale debate compares whetther computer based intelligence as compared to humans (as a collective whole) can achieve a better outcomes, as opposed to seeking 100% certainty from either options (never achievable). New technologies will always face an additional challenge as it needs to overcome an unconscious bias (which we all have) which will favor the status quo



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,858 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Bitcoin shot up too. As with a few other smaller coins. Value up about 30% from the day of the news!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,650 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I think it's simply the musk hitching the horses to the GOP/Trump bandwagon and it being successful - coupled with Trump and Elon both being loose with regulation etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,050 ✭✭✭JOL1


    Not sure its as simple of "simply hitching his horses to the bandwagon", Musk made a strategic decision and took a very active role in terms of monetary support but also use of the X platform and his extensive reach to drive and shape the success of the election. In a closely contested election arguably this factor alone could have changed the result …..of course it is these dynamics that have pushed the surge and the market has given its view…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,650 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Whatever way you want to describe it, in a politically agnostic way the decision taken by musk in this instance seems to have paid off at least in the short term. Musk has recently been very vocally anti regulation so his position makes sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭wassie


    I think getting regulatory support will always be the biggest hurdle Musk faces. Regulators are naturally going to be conservative, meaning getting FSD that relies on vision only was always going to be a tough ask.

    That ask may well be looking somewhat easier.

    Its going to be an interesting space to watch Tesla next year also given Trumps attitudes to EVs & renewables in general.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,650 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Yes. And I think Tesla could be repositioned in the US amongst the MAGA base - along the lines of yeah we hate EVs but Tesla is all american so we love tesla specifically. Is that a pipe dream? I don't know. But if they don't start liking some EVs they will run out of choices in time.

    I mean, Tesla even hits the DEI cohort, there is an African American ceo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭crl84


    More to do crypto-sceptic Sherrod Brown losing his Senate seat and thus losing chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee. The Crypto Bros pumped sh1tloads of money into his Republican opponent's campaign on a bid to unseat him, and potentially open up looser regulations.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,858 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    so in plain English, is that a good thing or a bad thing 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 673 ✭✭✭DrPsychia


    Autopilot should be a good indication of what FSD has to offer, but it's crap. Autopilot is undoubtedly the least reliable ADAS system I've ever used, I don't care what NCAP ratings say, real world Irish climate - its crap. Sharing @ELM327 experience, I get countless bingbongs due to darkness, glare, rain, etc. If the system struggles with basic functionality under common conditions, where other manufacturers’ systems perform much better, it’s unrealistic to expect it to perform flawlessly in more complex scenarios.

    Cameras are essential as part of a suite of ADAS sensors for redundancy; cameras alone cannot provide the necessary depth perception, redundancy, and environmental understanding required for safe FSD, especially in unfavorable weather like we always have in Ireland.

    Musk is a cult of personality, like trump. Believing Musk is like voting for Trump; people completely ignore the past, ignore his promises, ignore his lies, and blindly believe his every word. The amount of positive comments I read online about Musk is crazy. Some people talk like he actually builds cars, rockets, whatever, with his bare hands. Musk invented this or that, blah blah. He surrounds himself with sycophants.

    He constantly pushes this nonsense about Tesla being a technology company because technology is easy to promise and pump.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,346 ✭✭✭John arse


    Test drove a highland m3 yesterday,very impressed - very premium - excellent value for money.Just the trade-in situation let's them down for me.



This discussion has been closed.
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