USA 2024 presidential election

If Trump wins, institutions will burn. If he loses, the fire will be literal.

Whatever about Tesla I think the Donald Trump stock itself tanking is an interesting sign

Ever since last Tuesday it's been in a tail spin

I so hope you are wrong with them Predictions.

I predict Harris to win by the smallest of margins and for crybaby Trump to whinge and call for stolen elections before it all comes to nothing and he finally gets what's coming for him. A nice spell behind bars in a cold Prision somewhere.

You were making the case for the Tesla stock mirroring sentiment in the race.

I think that's a compelling argument given how much Musk has tied himself to Trump.

The thing is that is Tesla is still a few steps removed from Trump and it's ebbs and flows can be for all sorts of other reasons.

Unlike Tesla, DJT has no inherent value. It's linked to a Social Media site that has zero commercial value. Its value is instead directly linked to Trump's fortunes.

It has a current market capitalisation of $6 Billion dollars!!

The sole purpose for DJT is a way for wealthy people (or foreign entities) to funnel money to the Trump family and for supporters to show their support for him.

Its price over the last several months has risen and fallen with confidence in Trump's ability to win this election

The sharp decline started in earnest when Joe Biden dropped out (Arrow #1) and Harris became the candidate. It hit a low just after their debate in September (Arrow #2). It has been climbing steadily ever since and rapidly 2 weeks ago as confidence in Trump winning started to peak. Arrow #3 marks the beginning of the slump which occurred in the aftermath of the Trump rally in Madison Square Garden and the comments about Puerto Rico.

I think certain wealthy individuals are worried about his prospects and are getting their money out before the election knowing that if he loses that it will likely collapse to nothing.

For anyone interested in Ann Selzer's poll and methodology, this is a good interview that was held the morning after her poll was released.

She certainly seems very sure of her numbers. She says she has her doubts on weighting polls based on what happened in 2020, which is very interesting in of itself. She wasn't shocked by what these polls revealed, as she had been watching them everyday, but her nephew (interning with Gallop) was completely taken by surprise when she showed him the night before they were released. She wisely keeps her counsel as to what her poll might mean to other states.

I am very interested to see if she's miles off, or is close.

The Selzer poll gave me a boost of optimism but I'm feeling nervous and anxious now. I'd love Harris to win in a blue wave but can it be possible when almost every pollster suggests it's so close?

I think it all hinges on Pennsylvania. My sense is Trump will take Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia. I'd say Harris' best hope for swing states are Michigan and Wisconsin. That leaves Pennsylvania as the decider and I'm afraid to call it.