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USA 2024 presidential election

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,462 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    But there is no doubt globalisation and free trade has hammered certain job sectors and exported them to China and the far east and also Mexico. Once quality employment has evaporated from traditional industries and locations (including us in Ireland) making those left behind feel abandoned and much poorer. Because they are. Trump is rightly tapping into that and like it or not gives these people hope. I can totally understand why people would vote for him.
    One of my local towns, Carlow once had over 1000 good jobs in Braun manufacturing electrical appliances- it’s only recently begun to recover from that loss over a decade ago. Those jobs invariably were lost to the far east.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    He isn't rightly tapping into it, he is cynically exploiting it. He knows full well that he won't do anything to improve the lot for the bottom 10-20% and there's no guarantee that these jobs would exist in the US if globalisation hadn't happened. It's bog standard nostalgia and populism. Nothing more.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,616 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    The flaw in your thinking is that if global trade did not happen the jobs would somehow have remained; how many times have we seen protectionist schemes implemented and fail before people start putting two and two together? It's not like protectionism is somehow something new; you can look back to Japan, France back in 1800s etc. to see that it never, ever, works out in the end. Short of refusing any and all import and accepting you will have zero export it will not work (and even when attempted with that the rest of the world will out innovate and run them over). The problem is not that there's a global economy and jobs move; the problem is the lack of support in helping people move on to a new job in another area instead through support in retraining etc. when it happens.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I do not remember the exact details, but a USA steel foundry closed down because they could not compete with Chinese steel imports. The steel foundry was purchased by a Chinese company whose disassembled the plant and shipped it to China and used it to supply steel to the USA market.

    Trump imposed tariffs on steel the caused steel to rise in price in the USA. A company that manufactured nails found that the increased price of steel pushed them into loss, so they shut down causing large job losses.

    Unexpected consequences?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Yeah that can happen. Takes insightful leadership to pivot when this happens. Look at Turin in the early 80s,lost its fiat factory and was looking at 230k unemployed overnight, they pivoted to slow food and it's now one of the most prosperous cities in Italy



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,793 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Apart from all the other issues of Trump, what bothers me most is his attitude and interest in trade wars. It is like a punishment for a "crime" which never happened, and a court of law where one's voice was never heard. What also bothers me about Trump is his interest in speaking to dictators, like North Korea, etc…. To me he's pretty much Un-American as can be.

    It's possible that Ireland may be spared or partially spared the worst and would still see US business investment. The promotion of Irish business and investment in Ireland is very much driven from within the US, by US American ciitzens of Irish ancestry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I would almost argue that he's the American spirit perfectly distilled. All he cares about is his profile and enriching himself. He couldn't care less about anyone else. It's the same country where children can be slaughtered in their schools on a regular basis and the population just shrugs collectively.

    There won't be a trade war. Last time he tried this, the European Commission introduced carefully calibrated tariffs to hurt his base, motorcycles for instance. This is assuming that he wins of course.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,910 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Sorry how do you mean they pivoted to slow food. In what way? Did they just open a load of traditional restaurants or what?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The dirty secret of left wing politics is the snobbery of so many of them and the middle class and rich kid bubble it has become, the loathing of the working class as far beneath them.

    That's the real electoral killer for so much of the left today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Pretty much, and the agriculture, tourism, and other support industries



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,910 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Is that not what all of Italy is already famous for though?

    To be honest this is the first time that I've heard of Turin specifically in relation to cuisine - hence the questions. When I think of Turin I think of Fiat and Juventus. Never heard a food connection before. I accept that my cultural references may be dated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    It's there yes, but in the early 80s not in the industrial scale we know of today. Turin is where it started



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,153 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    that’s a ridiculous generalisation, that has very little basis in fact.

    Most socialists I know are in the trad union movement or in Sinn Fein. I have issues with the Sinn Fein lads, but snobbery isn’t one of them.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,910 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Massive news tonight. The Des Moines Register just released their final poll and it shows Harris beating Trump in Iowa by 3pts.

    Why is this massive:

    1. Their pollster, Ann Selzer is one of the best pollsters in the country. She's famous for her Iowa Caucus predictions. She was the only pollster to predict that Obama would beat Clinton in Iowa in 2008.
    2. Iowa is not meant to be a swing state - if this poll is even remotely accurate and Iowa is competitive then it likely means that all of the actual swing states in the north are going to go for Harris - which is all that she needs to win the election

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,221 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Election Outcome Prediction

    • President/VP: Harris/Walz
    • Senate: Republican
    • House: Democrat

    I'm aware of the closeness of the polls but I think we are getting close to the point, if not passed it already where traditional polling practices are going to fall out of favour or are disbanded entirely. Maybe it always happened in the past, that they were unreliable but that's forgotten about after the race but lately, it seems they have been off in race after race.

    I've been thinking of this in the context of ok, whichever candidate wins, we'll be reading in the next few weeks how 'there were signs that they were doing well' and I've been wondering which signs would they be referring to for each candidate and for Harris, I can see many, for Trump, I can see very few (outside of the stubborn polls).

    Last Sunday's MSG rally for Trump could not have gone better for Harris if her campaign had actually planned it. The fallout was both immediate and strong and lasted well in to the week. Pretty much until the Trump campaigns next stunt of the garbage truck backfired also. The symbolism of America/Garbage/Trump was just the weirdest message to push and the images of him stumbling walking up to the truck I feel are very harmful also. Aside from that, the energy from the 2 candidates has been very very different. If you read the transcript from Trump speeches (parts of it) you'd say ok, he's still saying the right thing, but his delivery is like 30% as forceful as it was in 2020 or definitely in 2016. Last night, Harris appeared on SNL and by all accounts that was a success for her.

    The senate seems very likely to swing back to Republicans and if we were to be told the result of one of the 3 races above in advance and heard that Democrats had retained it then it would be a sure bet that it would come in an overall landslide for them.

    The House of Representatives I'm going for a Democrat win, I feel the abortion conversation is going to motivate a high vote turnout amongst women and one impact of this is carrying the House for the Democrats.

    The problems that exist today will still exist next week whatever the outcome, but for me, there will be an entirely different tone and expectation on the future depending on the outcome. I feel cautiously optimistic in the prediction above but am still nervous after 2016 and have fingers crossed I'm not reading the above next week and thinking 'If only'. If Trump does win, it's likely he'll enter his term controlling all 3 elements of the government and with a Conservative leaning Supreme Court. I truly hope that that will not be the case. Fingers crossed!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,958 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    If this is right Trump is in trouble and RFK was never.took off the ballot and is polling 3%

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/02/politics/iowa-poll-harris-trump/index.html

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,181 ✭✭✭eire4


    I think your election predictions will prove correct.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 626 ✭✭✭felonious_Gru


    I'm near certain Harris is going to win , Tesla stock was hammered last week and is looking the same today, this is completely at odds with the companies recent upward trend and improved results, musk completely hitched his wagon to team Trump, it's always worth observing what big money is doing prior to elections



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,781 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    I think we'll see a Democrat wash on the 3 pillars.

    President Harris

    Tied Senate, Texas (& much less likely Florida) flipping blue, allows for a loss somewhere, probably Manchin's seat flips.

    House turns blue.

    I think the Senate is most up for grabs for Republicans with the amount of Dems up for re-election. The big thing helping the Dems is the down ballot votes on abortion and marijuana legislation.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 9,868 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    Being biased and having freqented the Conservative forum on Reddit, my predication is for a President Trump win, no overall changes in the senate and perhaps a handful of seats changing hands in congress.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    The Senate is more important imo. Moscow Mitch has been sitting on a massive amount of Bills for 8 years now



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,801 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Manchin's seat isn't just flipping, it is going dark, dark red. There is not the slightest doubt of it going. The problem is that Tester is also running behind and looks like a probable loss too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,334 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    really no guarantees that this will be the case, its just too close to call, stock price fluctuations are a poor indicator of anything really, let alone an election outcome, particularly one thats so close, as theres so much manipulations occurring to stock prices in general, but hitching his wagon to trump, could be a very bad move in the long run….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 626 ✭✭✭felonious_Gru


    Tesla soared by over 20% at the end of the week before last following surprise quarterly results, it has now been down six consecutive days trading, it's counterintuitive even from a market move standpoint and too coincidental not to be political



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,334 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, stock prices fluctuate for all sorts of reasons, not just political, but musks support for trump definitely playing a part in it, but that doesn guarantee harris is gonna win, its just too close to call, i was convinced she was gonna win up to the last couple of weeks, now im not so sure, this will probably end up in the courts to be decided



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,153 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    prediction:

    Trump wins the general

    GOP take the house and Senate.

    Grim I know, but I can’t see it any other way.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    All the current polls have Harris leading, so i assume Trump will win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 626 ✭✭✭felonious_Gru


    Yes I'm well aware that " stocks fluctuate" but the market gives us signals and within the context of musk hitching his wagon to Trump, Mr market is saying we are betting against your orange man



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  • Site Banned Posts: 1,331 ✭✭✭Yvonne007


    I think it is really too tight to call but regards of the result, America is about to burn.



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