Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

You would think a poll would be asking someone how they are likely to vote. It's like a yes or no question!
It's Family Fortunes 101 ffs!

Stop doing weightings and just poll more people!

20% of Iowa are independent voters (272k), even going with a generous 60/40 split female/male, gives her a 105k margin. Trump won in 2020 with a 138k margin. So in 2020 what did Biden win the independent woman vote by? +28 may be an enormous margin, but is it less or more than Biden? You need to compare it to something.

The more polls move toward Harris the more hyped up trumpers will start being about votes and counting (whether the polls are accurate or not).

The sh!t will really be flowing from their mouths.

oh the irony- SQUEREL!!!

Regarding the shock poll thing: only one poll matters etc.

Regarding reading the tea leaves into the bump in Republican registrations: are people certain those are Republican registrations for Trump? ☕️ I’m just saying, never have I ever seen a Democratic candidate with a veritable coalition of Republicans behind them before. ‘But that’s none of my business…’

the more it looks like Harris will win I worry about what level of violence they will deem acceptable.

I’m really worried what some of them might try and pull off in Tuesday. I don’t think they will care how bad it looks for Trump to do it either.

…on the lighter side: Kamala will be on SNL tonight. Look forward to Trump having a meltdown about “election interference” tomorrow

Any indication how the house and Senate races are going?

Unfortunately it's just not that easy. It's fiendishly difficult to get a sample that is representative of the population that you are interested in.

That's made even more difficult in a modern world where people don't answer their phones to unknown numbers or answer their doors to strange people (if they even are at home). Some groupings of people in particular are notoriously difficult to survey.

That's why most pollsters resort to weightings and that's where the real skill in the profession is.

Just a slight switch from the polling, come absolute cracker quotes in here

Trump, Epstein said, was almost “functionally illiterate” but did read the Page Six gossip column in the New York Post. He was “incapable” of reading a balance sheet, and any “act of kindness” would have been an accident.

another

On the tape Epstein can be heard saying, “He’s a horrible human being. He does nasty things to his best friends, best friends’ wives, anyone who he first tries to gain their trust and uses it to do bad things to them.”

On one occasion, Epstein alleged, Trump took a woman to what he called “the Egyptian Room” in an Atlantic City casino. Epstein alleged, “He came out afterward and said, ‘It was great, it was great. The only thing I really like to do is f--- the wives of my best friends. That is just the best.’”

For anybody who steps in with “Harris being friends with Diddy…”, stop yourself, read the above, be quiet.

The squirrel story is bonkers. Some bureaucrat was clearly lacking in some common sense. They killed the squirrel in order to test it for rabies - despite that fact that it had been living in the guys apartment - so self evidently not rabid.

I don't see any link between that and the election though - except for in the fever dreams of the people who are already deeply in the bag for Trump.

I think you've missed the point... by a country mile. People are using that Tweet to criticise the department for needlessly killing the squirrel and a raccoon.

Is Kennedy still on the ballot in all States even though he has supposedly withdrawn in favour of "Sweet Potato Face"?

It would be something else if abortion was the issue to cost Trump the election - something pollsters haven't really been predicting.