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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Harris and I don't think it will be that close. Democrats have been outperforming Biden's 2020 result by an average of 2% in the midterms/special elections and outperformed the polls by an average of 4% since Roe v Wade was overturned. It will come down to too many people not wanting another Trump presidency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,295 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Then Its back to will the young who are notorious for not voting, get off their arses and vote on the day? 😀

    I’d agree with you on that person - she would certainly have the kudos there with her fans - I still think though a lot of stuff we’ve taken as a given for previous elections is just turned on its head in this election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Definitely. These days it seems more people are supporting and praising the celebrities who endorse their favoured candidate, than supporting the candidate who has been endorsed by their favoured celebrity.

    But there are definitely some big-name celebrities like Taylor Swift and Beyonce whose endorsement will definitely move the needle a little.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    According to Zelensky they have few plans if Trump wins except to appeal to his vanity.

    Once again underscoring how surreal all this is, it's not about policy or principles or standards - it's about having to appeal to a narcissist if he wins.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,889 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    There are two different issues which are often conflated. First, the issue that the States are voting with different weights, and then the issue of how they are voting. The population problem can in theory be solved by the second issue without touching the EC and requires no constitutional amendments.

    It's President of the United States, a collective noun, not President of the United States singular noun. The idea of the nation being 'run' from D.C. is in effect just under 100 years old (Courtesy of FDR's threat to pack the Supreme Court resulting in the Commerce Clause ruling), it was previously more a co-ordinating body between the states and dealt with international affairs (and the federal budget reflected that). The EC weighting system was a compromise to reflect that though the equal status States are voting, some states have more importance than others, much as the bicameral congress is configured that way (There's a reason why the EC votes are basically one per congressman including senators). As mentioned in the intellectual discussion above between Ancalapailldorcha and Combat14, there is history in Europe to achieve the same thing. It used to be weighted voting by nation in the European Council until about ten years ago yesterday, now it's "Qualified majority voting" in which majorities must be obtained both in terms of overall represented population as well as in nations voting regardless of population. Similar result: Germany, France and Poland cannot run roughshod over Lithuania, Ireland Malta and Denmark, for example.

    The other question is the distribution of those EC votes. One method proposed is the interstate voting compact, which suffers the problem of guaranteeing your states' votes to a party it may not have voted to give the votes to, the other is district (split) voting. There is no requirement in the US Constitution that all EC votes be allocated to a single candidate. Two brave States, Nebraska and Maine, split their votes. It meant that Obama could get a vote out of Red Nebraska and Trump could get one out of Blue Maine, which thus meant that in theory even if the State was all but guaranteed to go one way or the other, there would still be some incentive for candidates from both parties to pay at least some attention to them, and the 'minority' voters of the State would feel represented. It's a win-win for the two small states, as the State itself keeps its 'disproportionate-compared-to-California's-population' weight in the EC, whilst keeping itself relevant with a happy population. In theory, this sort of thing could both represent the sub-state political demographics of the population whilst keeping the EC itself happy as a going concern.

    The problem is that in reality, I don't see it happening. If California (which has lost an EC vote this time around due to relative population loss) distributed its EC vote on the same basis as Maine or Nebraska, instead of an automatic 54 EC votes for Harris, California would vote 42 Harris, 12 Trump (Assuming the districts go the same party as their current representives). Texas (Increasing two due to relative population increase), instead of 40 for Trump, would go 28 Trump and 12 Harris. If distributed purely on a 'percentage of the vote in 2020' basis, California would go 36 Harris, 18 Trump, Texas would have go 22 Trump, 18 Harris.

    Now, imagine you're the leadership of the California Democratic Party or the Texas Republican Party. You would like your party's presidential candidate to win. If you change the system to be more 'representative', you are in effect just handing your opposition's party's presidential candidate a dozen EC votes if you go the District method, or 18 votes if you go by proportion of your electorate. 12 is more than half any of the current swing states have available, and 18 is more EC votes than any of the swing states that the two candidates are fighting over except Pennsylvania's 19.

    How do you think your proposal to split your states' votes for some stupid idealistic concept like "representation" will go over? The people not currently being represented at the EC level aren't voting for you anyway, so there's no harm coming from that quarter. But the Party sure as hell won't be happy that you're helping the opposition candidate and your position as a senior party member will be torpedoed. Good luck getting the party nomination for President next cycle.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Was it Ted Cruz who's wife Trump called ugly and yet he still licked boot?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Jokes aside, does no one in his circle tell him?

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,032 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Yep, and inferred his father was involved in shooting JFK

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,016 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Somebody once referred to the bronzer as his 'warpaint' and I think that's a more accurate description of its actual function when it comes to Trump than as some kind of genuine way to improve his personal appearance.

    I mean, he's being going around with that ridiculous hairstyle for at least a decade. We should accept at some point that his whole look is very much deliberate.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If someone can swallow and justify that to defend Trump it really shows how low they're willing to go.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,613 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    Im not sure where all this positivity for a Harris win is coming from.

    The major signs point towards the incumbent party losing.

    Historical trends, individual issue polls (economy, immigration), voter registration data, and economic conditions. Especially when the administration is deeply unpopular and most feel the country is on the wrong track. 28% in a recent poll.

    There isnt a single time in history when the incumbent party has won with that figure, its on average 42% to win.

    Trump has also made major inroads in alot of demographics. Black men, Latinos, Unions, Evangelicals, young people, and he has also motivated alot to vote early. 

    The Republican registrations in the swing states are well up.

    Mail in voting is down this election and there should be less voter fraud due to stricter regulations which is likely to favour Trump. Turnout is expected to be lower than 2020.

    In contrast almost no demographic has moved in large numbers to Harris. Not one.

    Historically Vice-Presidents typically dont do well in presidential elections.

    The betting markets have Trump as a firm favourite.

    Its going to be very tight but if I were a betting man, my money would be on Trump being elected taking all of the above into account.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    I actually saw some thread on Twitter yesterday talking about how it's just as likely to be a stress-induced thing; that the more stressed he is the more bronzer he feels he needs to apply to hide it. They used comparisons about how much thicker it gets in periods where he'd be under stress (ie. it became heavier when Biden started beating him in polls in 2020, when Harris replaced Biden this year, during Covid, after the assassination attempt etc). So rather than warpaint as a sign of offence, it's more of a mask in terms of defence.

    We can only theorise of course, but he does look f*cking ridiculous regardless.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,541 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The people who came up with the electoral college system went to great pains to protect against corruption in the election process and ensure fairness and prevent a small minority of influential people having undue power over who gets elected.

    I mean, they came up with the electoral college system to appease slave states and there is technically nothing mandating how state legislatures nominate electors or what they do once nominated so if anything it is the exact opposite of stopping a small minority of influential people having undue power.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well for one, most of the arguments coming from Trump supporters like yourself are either false, ridiculous or so vapid, you abandon them after a few posts.

    When presented with criticisms of Trump, or when it's pointed out when he does something stupid, the tactic is to just pretend not to see it.

    Most of your information comes from things like the twitter feed you stole from. Sources that source bullshit from conspiracy nuts like Alex Jones. You provide no back up for any of your claims and figures in this post, so they are highly suspect. Most likely you believe Trump will win because you are consuming low quality, biased sources without critical thought.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    A lot of the information in your post is wrong, so it's natural you're not sure of it.

    As for the country going in the wrong direction of course it is: one of the two major parties is charging headlong down fascism avenue. I don't think that single data point says what you think it says.

    As for his 'inroads' - AI photos with AI generated black people, calling puerto ricans garbage, pretending but not actually having the support of unions outside of exceptions like eg. the police or the president of a union, but not the union itself, blaming the Jews if he loses, his supporters dragging a pretend Kamala Harris through the streets in chains evoking slavery imagery, etc. etc., I'm not sure where you get your information from but that's all illusory.

    Again a key demographic has moved in large numbers to Harris: women, and they vote in superior numbers to men. She wins over women 53% to 37%, and they vote vs. men at a share of 55% to 45% of the vote. And she has the same support among Blacks etc. as Biden had, 87% to 13%.

    Historically, Alan Lichtman has called 10 of the last 10 elections, irrespective of the fact SCOTUS stole 2000 for Bush, Gore was categorically found to have won Florida. He and his model have predicted a comfortable Harris win. The best Republicans can hope for is a repeat of 2020 where Trump loses bigly but Republicans still scrape by down-ballot because of split-votes, from there they pin their hopes to the SCOTUS.

    Again, clinging to the betting markets, which have been shown to be manipulated. If you are so certain of the betting markets it's a wonder you haven't posted a slip yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭scottser


    It always amazes me that someone who lives in Florida uses fake tan. Can he not stick his face outside for 10 mins a day and get a real one?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    In here a lot seems to think Harris is home and hosed. Maybe I'm missing something that points to a Harris win besides wisgult thinking



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    In addition to Overheal's post, I'd also just note that for most of us it's not really "positivity" for a Harris win, more "trepidatious but hopeful thinking"



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    But this isn't the case. Bit weird to misrepresent people like this.

    At best, people are expressing cautious optimism and explaining why. You claim otherwise in an attempt to pretend others are as irrational as Trump supporters.

    Who do you think this fools?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,077 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    He hasn't fooled them. They know exactly what they are voting for.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    That's far too generous, the look is decades old such as seen on The Apprentice:

    image.png

    Nothing to do with 'war' much to do with vanity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,295 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    but secret Harris supporters😀

    Yeah I’m not convinced Harris will win and that’s going back about 4 weeks ago and I posted similar thoughts at that (early) time - her campaign stalled and it was clear it stalled - we should have seen rises in polls and other indicators that just didn’t happen .



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,728 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    It speaks to his massive insecurities and narcissism.

    He is so worried by peoples opinion of him and is so thin skinned about any perceived slight that it utterly consumes him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,048 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Less Voter Fraud? There was none statistically last time. Why are you continuing to post this lie?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    but secret Harris supporters😀

    yes. And?

    If this weren’t a real concern for the republicans they wouldn’t be having a freakout about the Julia Roberts commercial or about women voting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭scottser


    It's because of things like this:

    Every day, more utter nonsense from MAGA and Trump. Any optimism for Harris is borne from a knowledge that Trump will attempt another violent coup in disregard of the rule of law and the constitution if he loses. It might be wishful thinking on the part of those who support Harris, but only a sadistic prick would want Trump to win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    There's already been a report of voter fraud in this election. A woman who used a mail-in ballot for her dead mother to vote for Trump.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/minnesota-woman-voter-fraud-trump-b2638334.html

    Though of course, it was caught because of election security measures which helps to catch and prevent voter fraud.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,622 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Unsubstantiated claims and silly conspiracy theories. Not convincing.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Crazy Davey


    liberal desperation seems to be rife tbh. Trump is 1/2 odds to win (which he will do)



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Mostly likely because it's the lie being passed around in his media feed.

    Alex Jones and his ilk repeatedly talk about this idea. This trickles down into the more "respectable" twitter folks who are less embarrassing to link to. The bigger more mainstream right wing sources know better than to repeat these lies directly and openly.

    They have to repeat this lie over and over because they've little else and the assume that it will trick other people.



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