Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

Yeah, but it's not as simple as that. The Tories significantly shifted the Overton window, helped massively by the narrative that Trump introduced in 2016. Brexit was a bigger direct influence so they were already on their own path but the UK is now in a situation where a Labour government has removed fuel allowances from pensioners in its first winter in power and they a secretary for Health who is a big friend of private healthcare. These are acts which in the past would have been considered as something only the Tories would consider, and yet here we are.

They also have a very influential (more so than the US) print media environment which will prime the electorate for the Tory return in either 2029, or 2034. It's quite depressing how difficult it is to genuinely break away from the chains that restrict progressive government options in both countries.

trump is going to win this in a canter

She may be telling the truth, but who's ears those words reach is the question. It's fine to have it for the rally attendees, since it may encourage them to knock on more doors and tell more people, but it would be great as well if her words could be directly reaching the ears of undecideds, because Michelle Obama is undeniably charismatic in a way few prominent Democrats are these days.

If he wins, that’s democracy working which is great to see.

I won’t be bitter or try to say it was rigged.

Will you do the same if Harris was to win?

Considering Biden barely beat Trump despite his mishandling of Covid and how jaded the US was with Trump and the fact that both Biden and Hilary had large leads in the national polls, it's not looking good for Kamala. There's a very real possibility of a landslide win for Trump and maybe even win the popular vote.

An appalling decision to gift her the nomination. Trump is out there saying he hates Taylor Swift, the door is wide open now to be yourself in American politics but she can't bring herself to be genuine and sincere when questioned. They'll regret not going with Newsom who is quick on his feet and has dealt with the attack dogs on Fox News comfortably.

Good to see some high quality posting today.

I view the recent resurrection of Trump supporting accounts, old and new, all clamouring around how much trouble Harris is in, as an indication of just how much doo-doo Trump and the GOP are actually in. Flooding the zone with sh*t, as Steve Bannon would say.

Nah, he lost popular vote by 7M in 2020, can't see that being overturned with everything that has gone on since.

Just going by early voting, the Dem vote* is down 8mil and the GOP down 3mil, the independent down 24 mil.
*party affiliation.

That's enough to give Trump the popular vote, assuming the other 17.5mil Dems who voted early last time, don't turn up on the day. There has been talk of record early voting etc… but that all seems to favor the GOP this cycle.

Source?

Because the reporting I've read, has most states up in their early voting: Early voting in Georgia has brought in over 50% of the same TOTAL turnout in 2020. That's huge. You can read about the 2020 numbers here:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

The Hill reports as of this morning, GA had already surpassed 2.6 M early in-person votes - which matches with the total early vote turnout in 2020, not counting mail-ins. Less than 1 million people voted in person on election day in 2020. 4,925,487 votes were counted total, 2,694,763 were in person early votes, 1,320,154 were mail ins. The population of Georgia, meanwhile, has remained nearly flat since 2020 according to Macrotrends:

The population of Georgia in 2023 was 11,029,227, a 1.06% increase from 2022. The population of Georgia in 2022 was 10,913,150, a 1.14% increase from 2021. The population of Georgia in 2021 was 10,790,385, a 0.54% increase from 2020. The population of Georgia in 2020 was 10,732,390, a 0.98% increase from 2019.

Georgians still have a week to early vote, until the end of Friday. It's reasonable to assume, though we will know next Saturday, that Georgia blows the 2020 record outta the water.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4954994-georgia-early-voting-inches-toward-2020-turnout/

As for Wisconsin, the other report that came up when I searched the news for Early Voting, it's up as well. By a lot.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/wisconsin-elections-officials-report-40-increase-early-voting-115164487

I'm curious where it's supposedly down. Overall, nationally?

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?comparison_years=2020&comparison_years=2024&count_prefix=final_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22registeredParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&view_type=National

Yes, that's a national comparison based on 11 days out from 2020 and 11 days out from 2024. There is a lag with the 2024 figures. But not in the % difference between registered parties (26.4% down to 21.8% vs 15.5% up to 18.1%)

You're not comparing like for like. The Georgia early in person voting is exceptional (2.6mil so far vs 2.7mil for all of 2024)
Mail in is 330k so far vs 1.3mil in 2024.

In Georgia Trump got 1.4mil votes from early voting and Biden got 1.25mil.
However on the mail in, Trump got 450k and Biden got 850k.
Early voting is on par so far with 2020, however, in person voting (which in 2020 favoured Trump) is looking similar, but the mail in voting which favoured Biden is lagging.

Based on 2020 distribution, Trump gets 53% in person early votes, Harris gets 47% (1.38 vs 1.22) Trump +160k
Mail in, Trump gets 35%, Harris gets 65% (115k vs 214k) Harris +99
Net result Trump +66k from early voting.
On the day noting, Trump lead Biden by 590k to 370k.
Brings Trump up on Harris by 286k.

Now I know that's just a crude example, but it's assuming those 1 million ballots people posted back in 2020 will be posted back or if they turn up in person will favor Harris over Trump.

Yes, your link for Wisconsin mentions early voting being up, 292k vs 209k, that's an increase, but then they go on with early voting (which includes mail in) 1.9mil mail in votes in 2020….

The horizontal line is obviously the lag, but the trend is clear to see. The headlines mention in-persona voting being sky high, but the postal ballots have dropped significantly.

*Huge disclaimer, I could be reading all this wrong and I am open for correction.