Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

There's a good site that has complied all the early voting for the various states. Assuming the same turnout vs 2020, it would look like more will be voting on the day rather than early, but that would differ from state to state.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?comparison_years=2020&comparison_years=2024&count_prefix=final_eav_voted_count_&state=PA&view_type=state

And I wouldn't even call this hypocrisy because they're playing two different games. Trump is using force of personality and thriving on deep set fears/bigotries while Harris is doing the traditional thing of portraying herself as upstanding and competent. The only thing the same is the immediate goal they're working towards.

The damning thing is that after just about 10 years of Trump, the Democrats still don't appear to have figured him out. They still think that scandal will end him as a political force, which is absolutely not the case.

Pertinent information in red.

Ye can downplay it and say it's bots or whatever, but I think Harris needs to get herself on there quicksmart.

Where are you talking about? Pennsylvania?

Briany - Like, the early Pennsylvania returns have Democratic votes ahead, but I've also read this talk of the 'firewall', the number of votes Harris needs to be ahead by in order to weather the in-person Republican surge on election day.

Shoog - The in person Republican surge is not going to happen this time. Most of the early Republican voters who have already turned out voted on the day last time. They learnt their lesson last time and are voting early. This means that only newly registered voters could create that surge and most of them are going to be Dems.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-voter-registration-advantage-eroded-pennsylvania-means-2024-rcna176420

In March 2021, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Pennsylvania by 630,000. On the eve of the 2024 election, that edge has been cut to 300,000.

It doesnt seem to hold true about registered voters in PA anyway

By that logic, she shouldn't have done the Fox News interview since that audience and Trump voters are also closely aligned, yet she did, and was praised for doing so and penetrating the bubble.

Lots of her own followers would listen to a Rogan episode with her, as would many independents and maybe even some Trump fans. It's a huge audience, overall. If politicians aren't interested in doing interviews like that and getting their message out to big swathes of people in one fell swoop then they're fools to themselves, imo, and failure to appear on things like Rogan will be one of the things counted in the autopsy of a Harris loss, should she lose, on November 5th.

Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know.

The reality is that it shows voter fraud is rare and unsuccessful. Iirc, last time any fraud turned out to be for Trump.

I'd be looking at where they choose to spend their money in this last couple of weeks. For example Harris choosing to go to Texas where she knows she isn't going to carry the state because there is hope down ballot for Dems to have a good night there is a pretty strong indicator that they have their own internal polling that is showing she is doing better than what you see in the media.

If she was scrambling it would be the swing states you would be throwing your sizable war chest at logically, to dedicate any time to a state you can't win would make no sense if you weren't confident of carrying more of these close states than the media is giving you credit for.

Oh yeah, Harris taking days off altogether is another indicator you could look at.

The argument has nothing to do with whether Rogan is a 'kingmaker', but his podcast has a huge reach. It's certainly a better use of three hours with a week and a half to go than standing back while Liz Cheney speaks uninspiringly, even if sincerely to an audience of people who are already going to vote for Harris. I can tell you that for certain.

Isn't talking to a lot of people at once a big part of a presidential campaign? Getting the message out? I really fail to understand why there's this pushback to the idea of her appearing on Joe Rogan's podcast. What media strategy does her team have for the last 10 days or so where not appearing on Rogan is better than one which does?

And again, if Joe Rogan's audience leaning Trump, politically, is a reason not to go on, then she needn't have appeared on Fox News, either.

But, fine, whatever. Give Trump a free pass to spread his nonsense around for three hours on one of the podcasts on the Internet. See if that decision is not decried if/when she loses.

My hope \ instinct is that this non-endorsement will do more for Harris than an endorsement would, it is certainly getting more airtime.

Of course, that's his modus operandi.

You can pretty much ignore what that poster said. This is not an indication of anything regarding the election result.

At the moment, Trump is ahead. It's hard to come to any other conclusion based on the early vote so far. There is still a way to go.