Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

Who are we guys ?

Not me so

About 538's win probability percentage. This is from their own analysis:

"Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate."

So if they are saying that 52% for Trump is basically the same as 58% for Harris, that percentage isn't really worth anything in a close race.

She is a poor a communicator. She cannot change that over night.

The democrats were daft enough not to see that running Biden was going to be a disaster. They should of had a backup plan that wasn't an unpopular VP that had a disastrous primary campaign in 2019.

Yeah I get that. What I was really remarking on was the fact that his momentum had been broken. In the time that I've been following that model it went from something like 65% Harris, steadily down to 47% Harris (ie 53% Trump). At that rate the concern was that in another 2 weeks that it would be something like 65% Trump if his momentum in the polls had kept up.

The difference between 65% Trump and 51% Trump really would be significant.

Because they are inwardly ashamed of their hate and so deny it exists? (works both ways I am sure)

When I first went to America I was told by a friend around the time (60s) that cars had tried to run him down because his hair was long.

(In England the car I was in was harrassed and one of the occupants put it down to its Irish reg plates- on a squaddy town)

My own experience of USA was horrendous.but I have come across "no blacks" signs in Belgium too.

No its not different but calling someone a communist or a fascist is different then calling someone Hitler,

All wrong. She's an excellent communicator, a pleasure to listen to. Ever listen to a Trump speech? Torture.

The mistake, perhaps, was not running Harris sooner, a few months on the campaign vs. Trump and she'd have him completely done for. She's only been campaigning since July. Imagine if she'd had a year or two, way more money over all that time, and Trump would've imploded long ago with all the highly successfully communicated needling causing him to lose what little remains of his s**t.

Posting this here, as I seem to recall some posts complaining about the lack of 'policy' from Kamala Harris (usually while giving Trump a free pass on same).
The expert assessment on her economic policy is that it is vastly superior to Trump's, and warns of the dangers of Trump's plans.

More than half of the living US recipients of the Nobel Prize for economics signed a letter that called Vice President Kamala Harris’ economic agenda “vastly superior” to the plans laid out by former President Donald Trump… “While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we believe that, overall, Harris’ economic agenda will improve our nation’s health, investment, sustainability, resilience, employment opportunities, and fairness and be vastly superior to the counterproductive economic agenda of Donald Trump,” the economists write in the letter obtained by CNN…
The letter points to Trump’s tariff and tax policies as inflationary and likely to balloon the federal deficit – a widely held view among economists.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/nobel-prize-economists-harris-economic-plan/index.html

They'll have to turn out in the right places. Harris smashing records in California won't be any use.

I think that if Arizona, North Carolina or Georgia go to Harris, then Trump's in trouble as concerns on abortion rights would almost certainly be a huge factor in that result.

True enough, now that I've poked further…

"John Kelly will be leaving, I don't know if I can say retiring, but great guy," Trump told reporters. "John Kelly will be leaving at the end of the year. We will be announcing who will be taking John's place; it might be on an interim basis." With Trump, it's hard to define what the truth or his version of the truth…

From this Newsweek link…

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=b2067bd8e1769994JmltdHM9MTcyOTcyODAwMCZpZ3VpZD0wNGY1NWYyZi1lNDBjLTYxMDgtMTM3OS00YjlmZTU0MTYwOWUmaW5zaWQ9NTIwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=04f55f2f-e40c-6108-1379-4b9fe541609e&psq=Did+Trump+fire+general+Kelly+as+his+COS+or+did+Kelly+resign+from+the+job&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c3dlZWsuY29tL2dlbmVyYWwtam9obi1rZWxseS1maXJlZC1kb25hbGQtdHJ1bXAtaGl0bGVyLWZhY2lzdC0xOTczNjU2&ntb=1

It is a two horse race, so yes, he sets a standard in this race, especially when posters complain about lack of so-called communications skills (or whatever point is raised) while not mentioning Trump being objectively awful on the same issue.