Tesla Talk

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/ride-the-lightning-tesla-motors-unofficial-podcast/id1025399574?i=1000673739492

This is the ‘unofficial’ Tesla pod - they say that with just 35k cybertruck deliveries and 40k production, across 10 months, and chart topping Q3 numbers (fan foundation series deliveries), Tesla has binned the massive $100 reservation list and are now offering a cheaper version for immediate delivery, with no waiting list.

The pod is ‘concerned’ Tesla won’t get remotely close to the 250,000 annual production target and will need price cuts to get sales.

"what are the sources of revenue that are ‘in development’?" Potential source of revenues are Robotaxi, Enhancing FSD which "if" successful opens up huge potential for software revenues and(or) sale to or licensing to other auto-manufacturers, development of smaller/cheaper Model 2 (it hasn't been cancelled more that Robotaxi was prioritised). I am not trying to persuade/change your views (you have made them clear) but all of these are in development whether you think they will generate revenues or not..which is a view.

"..would need to be multi billions annually to help justify the sp". Justifying the share price is not for you (or me) to determine, this is done by the market whose collective views are all factored into determining the share price. Given uncertainty around a lot of these factors there is huge volatility but the best absolute (fact not opinion) is the daily share price as it is traded in volumes on a daily basis, bought and sold. Other than that it is just a "view"and we all can /do have views.

" the Spaceex stuff is amazing…but has zero bearing on Tesla". Yes it is amazing and this was "my" example (not Musks Marketing 101), to illustrate in a crude way that things/technologies that once would have have seemed impossible are only so until they are shown to be possible and along the way there are many failures. In my view, and you can form your own, this is a fair analogy.

Will leave matters there as we both understand each others view points

Hardly stale. Model Y is best selling car in the world (remember everyone mocking me for correctly predicting this 2 years ago?) and will get major refresh within months. Model 3 had its refresh a year ago and that was a big improvement over the old one. Both cars are best in class, with best tech, best spec, best efficiency, lowest price yet highest margin.

They will be cash cows for a while yet…

Was impressive from the expensive RAV4 to become second last year, but it looks like it will have to yield that place to the much cheaper Corolla this year (the best selling car in the world for most of the past 20 years)

But I reckon neither will be even in the top 5 next year and neither in the top 10 by 2028 unless both have evolved into competent BEVs by then

Tesla is a relatively new Company but as @unkel has shown its history shows that it continues to upgrade/improve its product offering with more planned. This is not unique, other car manufacturers adopt the same approach (BMW Series 3,5 & 7 launched in the 70's and still relevant, VW Golf (1974), Ford Fiesta 47 years of production).

Launching new iterations and preserving the same Model name are not mutually exclusive. What is important is that cars remain competitive in the market, everyone can form their own view on that but Mod Y was highest selling car worldwide last year, Mod 3 has had a significant refresh and Mod Y will follow shortly …which is persuasive (to me) and a long way off from the label "stale" that has been thrown around

And even hardware physical updates can typically be got for relatively little money. You can upgrade the entire media control unit in a 2012 Model S for the same one that is in a brand new 2024 Model S for €1550, this means all software and functions are the same, so your ancient car with its ancient slow computer - with 3G internet and a no longer working internet browser LOL, is now a very fast modern computer with lightning quick screen and map and routing updates, disney, youtube and netflix, modern games and what not now included too (not that I would use any of those really)

great set of results from Tesla tonight.

As always with Tesla’s interpretation of GAAP accounting, the truth is in the details -

€0.70 eps, vs consensus of €0.60. the delta is driven by a big increase in carbon credit sales (€0.06) and an increase in current liabilities increasing the cash position, perhaps temporarily (€0.04).

They slashed costs in Q3, incl 10% headcount reduction, but delivered more cars - which is an achievement. Not sure if there was excess stock at the start of the quarter.

auto margin is up from 14 to 17%, back where it was at the start of the year.

So on the face of it it’s a super set of results - but as always, the details hide a slightly different story, albeit still a v good one.

one blot on the copybook is that total auto revenue is down slightly, even though they sold more cars, due to price cuts, which can only go so far.

Of note - the cost of delivering a car for Tesla (raw materials, factories, staff etc) is at an historic low of $32k, which is what’s driving the margins up to that 17%

Yes it is ..or at least its one important metric …there is good bounce after market closed (10%) so the market has reacted favourably. Have just listened to Investor call. What ever talents you think Elon may have (or not have) public speaking isn't one of them.

These figures are reported on widely by multiple industry bodies and a quick google search will disclose the numbers. There is consistency in the reporting across the motor industry sites who monitor such things and I see no reason to doubt the veracity. Not sure exactly what gives rise to your scepticism. Two examples attached

Who was burned?

Ah ok, classic case of love turned to hate then. Pity that happened. All that energy would have been better spent fighting Tesla rather than just post negativity and untruths on online forums

Personally I have taken Tesla to court 4 times, and won all of them

Get off your high horses. I still like my Model Y, but am also critical of the brand and Elon, it's possibly to hold both views simultaneously you know.

It does get tedious though all the same. I was a musk coolaid fanboy until I reeeeally wasnt. He's gone off the rails and is costing the company. I also don't like the image that driving a tesla brings. In addition to people laughing at you for being a green eco warrior (which i amn't) you now get people assuming you're anti vax (which I amnt) or any of the other nonsense musk comes out with.