Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

1111214161722

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,616 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Correct. In Francie Brady's Sinn Fein Ireland sometimes the mast slips, and it is quite clear how Protestants would be viewed in a U.I., especially if they did not keep their heads low.

    Quote "because they're Protestants and nothing more - they cannot be nationalists and loyal to the Republic and the concept of republicanism."

    Imagine if someone in England wrote about Catholics there that they are Catholics and nothing more, and that they could not be loyal to Britain?

    Despicable stuff from Gerry Brady and the SF camp. Same as how some Republicans think that if you are not Catholic you cannot really be Irish, or if you are not Republican you are not really Irish.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I have taken part in discussions with Heather about her background. She has no problem speaking about it and is rightly proud of her ancestors. While she claims to be republican many of those from a similar background still maintain membership of the OO and the link with Britain. They currently vote for FG They will be the target
    of the DUP.
    If you wish to censor that point that’s your issue. Kindly take it up with the mods.
    There is absolutely nothing sectarian about it as a point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Irish History


    ???



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,843 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    So from what I can see, you are basically trying to tarnish her (and Richmond) without foundation but then reference people like her to get away with it. In my opinion, you are trying to muddy the water.

    With my mod hat on: stop it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,772 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties

    What would the union in 'Unionist' represent? The DUP can only exist in a place where they want Union with someone



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It's a question for all the current UK/Unionist parties on the island.

    I can't see any of them shutting up shop and disbanding. They will adjust and try to survive I reckon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,441 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Well, it'll be a signficant adjustment. And I think it could involve a high degree of realignment.

    The current pattern of multiple unionist parties, with relatively frequent splits and the formation of new parties that mostly go nowhere, was set at a time when unionism was the dominant political position in NI. Obviously, it wouldn't be the dominant political position in a United Ireland, so a diversity of squabbling and splitting unionist parties will be a luxury that can no longer be afforded. Plus, I think to succeed and endure a unionist party is going to have to reimagine itself not so much as a unionist party but as a party that represents the interests of British people in Ireland.

    All of which means that, in a united Ireland, there might not be a DUP. Or, the DUP might survive as an entity but might not be the dominant unionist (or British) party, or the one which is most successful at attracting the votes of British-identifying people in the former 26 counties.

    In fact, the less like the DUP a unionist party in a united Ireland is, the more successful it will be in picking up votes from Briti-identifying people in the former 26 counties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/research-reveals-supporters-of-the-union-are-now-a-minority-AEVO77VEFZFJPGIRTF5A435TOM/

    In spite of the best efforts of the Irish News to spin this survey, the results are stark.

    Only 33.7% support a united Ireland, and despite all the nonsense about the demographic dividend, a united Ireland isn't ahead in any category.

    A border poll is decades away.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    33.7% is phenomenal without a plan for a UI.
    Especially when disillusionment has plainly set in within Unionism, now no longer the majority view.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    At current rates of progress there should be a border poll sometime around 2088.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There is an interesting scenario developing IMO. Leo Varadkar's input being at the centre of it.

    I have said before there was a reticence within the FF and FG political parties of being seen to plan for a UI because it would play into SF hands. I.E. Unless they can be seen as the frontrunners they are not interested.

    If SF are knocked back to current polling levels in an actual GE might we see FF FG try to wrest the initiative on achieving a UI from them.
    FF are keen for a foothold in the north, if SF fall back, they won't get a better opportunity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Very clever of FG to use an ex-leader with zero influence to attract the good republican vote with no commitment being given. Not sure I approve of that kind of stuff.

    Don't think any of the main parties are seriously interested in the North, they know the demographics aren't shifting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They've stolen a march on the 'Republican Party' no doubt.
    Will be interesting to see if there is a response.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,616 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Varadkar is the most detested FG Taoiseach in history by many unionists in N.I. Varadkar is also hated by many in FG for dropping its popularity rating so much here when he was Taoiseach. The less smug little Leo V. interferes in matters from now on the better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It isn't a huge achievement as an Irish person to succeed in the first of your points, I agree with your second point but I doubt FG voters would and your third is pointless as he seems to wants to interfere and will be given a platform.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Poll of polls showing stagnation rather than decline. 49% vs 35%

    https://x.com/LucidTalk/status/1848822880861360175?t=kF6v2P0i42A0RaFO9OwprQ&s=19



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Key figure is the Don't Knows.
    Those who are waiting to be persuaded and for a plan. Which is just another way of saying the positions will remain stagnant until such time as there is a map of the future.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You would need all of the unknowns to reach 51%. Miles away from likely to pass.

    The Lucid Talk twitter account says there is not much demand for Unity polls at the moment ,possible might be one for Feb25.

    Probably be very quiet for a while assuming SF don't recover in the polls.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You need to know how much of the proUK is soft support.
    We know it is falling and is now not majority support anymore, how much further would that fall if a plan is produced.

    We also know, and you have been told multiple times, SF don't own the concept, now conclusively proved by former leader of FG's intervention, Labour's recent contribution and cross party willingness to discuss the concept in the north.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We already know the pro UK vote is rock solid. Remember it came up before on one of the threads?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    We don't know how much of it is soft support.
    We know it is now below 50%

    We don't know how much of it is persuadable by a plan.

    Until a plan is produced we simply don't know a lot.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's not "now" below 50%, has been for a while. It is just a first for that particular pollster.

    Support for remaining in the UK has been consistently at 48% for a decade. Remember it came up before, only movement we are seeing is the soft pro unity vote moving back and forth between the "Don't Knows". Polls have consistently shown the pro unity support to be soft even among SF voters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And you won't see movement of much significance until there is a plan.

    It is only an opinion that support for the Union is hard support. You don't actually know.

    Produce the plan and then poll, that is the only fair test.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well the hint is the title, "Opinion Poll"!!

    Problem is , with the unity vote soft, will a plan be forthcoming?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think Varadkar has spotted the political capital to be made and unencumbered by party considerations has moved into the space.

    I think he took his lead from the fall in SF support and that won't be lost in the backrooms of FG and FF who have been looking for ways to take the initiative on a UI without bolstering SF.

    If SF's vote decline becomes a trend you will see a Plan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,200 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Strange that a man who will be out of politics in a few weeks has supposedly "spotted the political capital to be made".

    Unity is SF's Brexit. They want it, but they don't want to go into the details because maybe then people will realise the benefits are largely a mirage, or just jingoism, but the risks and costs are very significant and very real. The idea that SF would produce a detailed, costed and credible plan before a border poll, instead of promising one afterwards or just "selling the sizzle" that unity is beneficial because it just is, is ridiculous and will never happen.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If you want to put your head in the sand and pretend Unity is only being considered by SF then work away. The All Party Dáil committee are looking at it, The Arrins Project is and the Shared Island unit is too. Labour want it to be a key plank of what they offer too. Not to mention those in the Ireland's Future and in the UK etc. And last but not least those in the Irish government presently.
    If Varadkar isn't seeking political capital, what is he after? He doesn't need to be in FG or even government to gain politically from it. Who knows what he has his eyes on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,616 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Maybe he is trying to split up the UK ( which would very much be in Russia's interest, to split up a key member of NATO ) because he fell in to a honeytrap? That thought never crossed your mind?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,200 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    They've been looking at it for 100 years, it's as much a pipe dream as ever, but if other parties can see an opportunity to take some wind out of SF's already flagging sails they'll do it.

    What is LV after - who knows.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



Advertisement