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In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 526 ✭✭✭taratee


    As a matter of interest, what re-alignment, change and death can you see in politics in NI at the moment?

    Am Yisrael Chai - Bring them home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,750 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    There's maybe enough of them to elect a few councillors, though. Like the Donegal Progressive Party when it existed.

    A party occupying the DUPs space may get votes from others, but the DUP itself would not.

    I still think the UUP are more likely to be able to position themselves as a barely-centre-mostly-right, keep the Commonwealth type party in UI and take votes from, mostly, FGs old voter base. They'd need a complete name change though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think the UUP have undergone a massive change since the GFA. Similarly SF and even the DUP have been forced to moderate somewhat and enter the executive. Big change from the days of not even shaking hands,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,441 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Fine Gael was arguably the most anti-Provo party in Dáil Éireann. As you point out, they trace their roots back to the Pro-Treaty side in the Civil War and the Pro-Treaty side was, of course, IRA. Fine Gael is the party of Michael Collins; others may forget that but the DUP are unlikely to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Politics here changed. Divisions were put aside and alliances between foes were made. (See the current government)

    If the DUP back a militant reaction to a UI, they are gone politically.
    What is probable IMO, is faced with a do or die scenario, a shift will be made just like the huge one that Paisley made after the GFA.
    Think of what a once staunch Unionist behemoth like him set aside/forgot to do what he did. Forgetting Michael Collins will be an easy thing to do.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The shift within Northern Ireland will happen a long time before unification, and will derail the kind of unity you have in mind. The smart unionists will seek the maintenance of a distinct Northern Ireland within a federal island, one that can retain cultural links with rUK, probably with those cultural links copperfastened in a new all-island Constitution. Stormont will remain as is, with increased powers of devolution. In doing this, they will capture the middle as well as the substantial majority in the South who don't want a united Ireland with trouble.

    Expect to see the Alliance Party focus over the next decade on the importance of Northern Ireland first, constitutional issues second. That will become the endgame.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not really a thread to debate whether a UI will happen or not. It presumes a UI has happened.

    In the event a UI happens I think you are nearly there on what Unionism will do. As mentioned, the Ian Paisley's etc will be pragmatists and seek to survive.
    It will seek to maximise it's vote while maintaining it's cultural links and most certainly try to copperfasten fasten those links. That's an entirely legitimate thing for them to do.
    Who will they see here as natural/historical allies in maintaining those links? The John Bruton's, Garrett Fitzgeralds, Heather Humphey's and Neale Richmond's and the party they were and are members of.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You are making an assumption about a particular type of united Ireland. That is a type of united Ireland that is extremely unlikely to happen for all the reasons I have set out. That means it is a fantastical idea.

    If you want to talk about the future of the DUP in a united Ireland situation, which is what this thread is about, you have to consider alternative forms of a united Ireland in which a DUP successor would flourish. A DUP party that exclusively runs in Stormont, refuses to take its seats in the Dail, while being First Minister in Stormont, mirrors the current situation with SF. For me, this offers the realistic future for the DUP, focussed on preserving Stormont and protecting the interests of British people in a federal united Ireland.

    No alliance with FG, no seeking of votes in the South, but a focus on Northern Ireland and its importance.

    P.S. but you will still attempt to censor my views.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady



    The title of the thread:

    In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

    It presumes the DUP standing for election in what would be the former republic/26 counties.


    Addressing a scenario where the DUP won't stand candidates is not what the thread is about.

    By all means contribute on something else but don't expect replies.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,528 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Well if everyone focused on the original question we probably wouldn't have almost 400 replies because the answer is quite evidently "No, not in a million years".



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,723 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    I for one anyway would not vote for them If you paid me no matter they they promised.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 526 ✭✭✭taratee


    I don't see them supporting a militant reaction. I've seen nothing to suggest that there is any appetite for that within the DUP. The'll evolve like they have in the past, as you said. I'd be far more concerned about the threat of violence from Republicans who would be unwilling to compromise. Unionism and Loyalism isn't just going to disappear in a UI.

    On the topic of attracting votes in the RoI, people would vote for them for sure, if they run candidates in the Republic. They might decide to remain an NI only party. The Alliance party could do really well down here.

    Am Yisrael Chai - Bring them home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Are you up to date with events?

    See also the renewed threat of violence from Loyalism this morning if things continue going the way they see them going now, not to mention a UI.
    This is from groups the DUP want to see consulted and involved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I have presented an alternative idea of what will happen, one that is far more likely than any of the fantastical notions put forward by you throughout the thread. There will not be DUP candidates running in the South and there will not be a merger with FG, those are just silly thoughts. Similarly, I do not see a militant reaction by the DUP to any united Ireland because, bad and all as they are, they are a fully democratic party unlike, say, Sinn Fein (not ruling out a militant reaction from other quarters).

    Why? Because the type of united Ireland that we end up with isn't even on the table yet. It won't be the simplistic republican notion, that is for sure, because that idea won't win hearts and minds. The solution will preserve an identity for Northern Ireland, because 100 years of separation has led to people up there feeling different. That is expressed in many ways, from republicans claiming to being abandoned by FF and FG to unionists who have never stepped foot down here and never will, and in between the hundreds of thousands of young people who have grown up knowing only Northern Ireland.

    The sooner the phony discussions about a united Ireland stop, and republicans wake up to being stuck at 40%, the sooner we will have realistic ideas and options on the table. It will probably take some shouting and roaring for another decade and a half before that sinks in to the empty heads in the discussion and another decade and a half before a plan begins to appear.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 526 ✭✭✭taratee


    Ah, a small group of lunatics that the PSNI are well aware of. You still have fringe groups on both sides that have been left behind. That was always going to happen. If the DUP sees value in consulting with them and they think they are going to change them, let them give it a try. I think it's a waste of time and these guys belong behind bars.

    Am Yisrael Chai - Bring them home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Do you think it is wrong for political parties to consult with paramilitary groups? Yes, or no.

    I have no hesitation in condemning all parties in the North that ever did or ever will consult with paramilitary groups.

    Or is it that green paramilitary groups are in a different situation to orange paramilitary groups?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Seems to me their current repeated threat through intermediaries is being taken seriously. Whether it is credible is another issue and subject to speculation.
    It should also be noted that unlike the IRA there is no finding of being involved in ‘exclusively peaceful means’ around these groups.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,200 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    What exactly do you mean by "people from their backgrounds" Francie?

    You're not being sectarian now are you?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,200 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    UUP underwent a massive change alright, from the dominant party of unionism to near irrelevance.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The PIRA evolved into other groups like the Real IRA etc., same people involved. Some of them stayed in the PIRA and limited themselves to drug dealing, murdering people in pubs, protection rackets and knee-capping.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Heather has always described herself as coming from the ‘minority community’ here. She is proud of it and so she should. Similarly Neale Richmond speaks of his own background.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes.
    But their ideology changed massively, think Jim Molyneaux then think Doug Beattie/Mile Nesbitt.
    Molyneaux saw the IRA going on ceasefire as 'the most destabilising thing ever' and the 'worst thing to ever happen to us'. He supported J. Donaldson and others resignation over the GFA.

    He knew that the AIA and The GFA was the writing on the wall for Unionist supremacy and their veto. I think the UUP have travelled a road since that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,200 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Yes, they're Protestants, I know that.

    You are very strongly implying that because of their background - because they're Protestants and nothing more - they cannot be nationalists and loyal to the Republic and the concept of republicanism.

    You're saying they'll hop into bed with the worst dregs of semi-constitutional unionism the first chance they get.

    Purely on the basis of their religious background.

    Despicable stuff.

    Is this what we can expect in SF's brand new world? Because they can keep it.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No I very clearly said that those who go to OO marches and who hang a UJ in their halls who vote FG would.

    Read posts correctly?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,200 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Do either of the people you have slandered do these things Francie?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Japers, you don’t read posts do you? I said Heather or Neale wouldn’t but somebody from their background could conceivably in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    The likes of Charlie Flanagan and Patrick O Donovan privately wish we were under British rule like the good oul days in their heads



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    "Somebody from their background"?

    Sectarian racist generalised nonsense. You would never use that phrase about any other group. Completely despicable, you have sunk to a new low.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,519 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    How is it 'sectarian' to talk about a background she talks about herself? You guys are being silly now.

    An Irish Government minister has revealed that her grandfather signed the Ulster Covenant in 1912, but describes herself as "a proud Ulsterwoman, a Protestant and an Irish republican".

    Heritage Minister Heather Humphreys was speaking at a conference around the 1916 commemorations hosted by the Presbyterian Church in Ireland held in Belfast yesterday.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    An individual can say "I am black" or "I am from Africa", nothing wrong with that, as Heather Humphreys was doing.

    However, if you were to say that people with a black African background were more likely to vote for a political party that supported violence, you would be guilty of racial stereotyping.

    In your actual case, you are guilty of sectarian stereotyping. Own it and apologise.



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