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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    RCP Averages ?

    Yes , they are to be largely ignored - they simply take ALL the polls and average the scores. They do not filter out anything regardless of quality , reputation or who is paying for them.

    538 , Silver Bullet and others apply a weighting based on the quality of the polling and their historical accuracy - Not perfect but infinitely better than RCP.

    Having said that , all of the above still show the entire thing is within the margin of error one way or the other so it's largely moot.

    As I said earlier , the hard data coming from the early voting updates is at least that - Hard data and that is showing potentially positive news for Democrats based on the generally high turnout and the demographics that are voting.

    Again , that could all change by next week as the next tranche of voters come out or indeed if we see a huge "on the day" turn-out.

    But now that voting has started , for me at least that information is more meaningful.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We're at the stage where his supporters are resorting to the old "yea, but at least it's getting him attention" stuff.

    Happens every time he does something stupid that backfires.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,030 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Yeah, like normally it's all tumbleweeds and empty airwaves in the weeks before the US Presidential election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    I'd appreciate it better if his willingness to speak his mind costs the GOP much needed votes and he snatches victory from them. I doubt very much if he will pay out any time this decade the court awards against him. I know the media are providing details of how much Harris has in the purse to pay for election ads etc as against him and then see how the billionaires like Musk are throwing money around to bolster him. Musk must feel pretty desperate to be prepared to hand out one million dollar cheques, one per day, supposedly from his own resources to people who register to vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    He seems to have the luck of the devil when it come to people being willing to overlook anything he does that, for another person, would mean the end of their career and a sacking. Teflon doesn't do it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,921 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Or, it could be because, and bear with me here, he said false and defamatory things about them. Crazy, I know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,921 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    I would agree but more so with his base, who would support him for whatever reason.

    This election isn't to swing his base, more to settle the undecided voters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Yes. Hopefully the undecided see their way through the fog Trump created and vote against him, despite his threats to go after anyone who does so. Only MAGA heads could choose to mishear what Trump said repeatedly about that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,578 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,578 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/20/trump-overturn-2024-election-plan-00184103

    ''The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway''

    Interesting read

    Mod Edit: Poster warned for ignoring mod instruction. Three day ban applied

    Post edited by Necro on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Yes well, the words out of his mouth gave them the grounds to sue him again. If he hadn't make a new declaration that they are murderers after the judicial system had declared them innocent and after the actual guilty party had been caught, he certainly wouldn't have given the innocent reasonable grounds to sue him again.

    You're probably right about it getting him increased polling numbers which begs the question: should anyone listen to him when he complains about getting unfair justice seeing as he doesn't give a fig about it for others?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Desperate.

    You realize, of course, having investigated the reporting about this defamation suit yourself in a good faith manner, where the defamation originated from, right?

    Right?

    You looked into the defamation lawsuit right? You, read the article Frankie shared?

    Let me help you out: the reason they're suing during an election is because they were defamed, during an election. This election.

    FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: This is the most divisive presidency in the history of our country. There's never been anything like it. They're destroying our country. And they come up with things like what she just said going back many, many years when a lot of people including Mayor Bloomberg agreed with me on the Central Park Five. They admitted -- they said, they pled guilty. And I said, well, if they pled guilty they badly hurt a person, killed a person ultimately. And if they pled guilty -- then they pled we're not guilty. But this is a person that has to stretch back years, 40, 50 years ago because there's nothing now. I built one of the greatest economies in the history of the world and I'm going to build it again. It's going to be bigger, better and stronger. But they're destroying our economy. They have no idea what a good economy is. Their oil policies -- every single policy -- and remember this. She is Biden. She's trying to get away from Biden. I don't know the gentleman, she says. She is Biden. The worst inflation we've ever had. A horrible economy because inflation has made it so bad and she can't get away with that.

    Gosh what a conspiracy it is, to be sued for defamation so soon after the defamation occurred, just a few weeks ago… not!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/21/trump-central-park-5-defamation-suit-election.html

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542

    The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Philadelphia, cites several statements Trump made about the men during his Sept. 10 debate with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, after she blasted Trump for taking out an ad in 1989 calling for the then-teen defendants to be executed.

    “Defendant Trump falsely stated [at the debate] that Plaintiffs killed an individual and pled guilty to the crime. These statements are demonstrably false,” the civil suit said.

    “Plaintiffs never pled guilty to any crime and were subsequently cleared of all wrongdoing. Further, the victims of the Central Park assaults were not killed,” the complaint said.

    The suit alleges that Trump’s conduct toward the men at the debate “was part of a continuing pattern of extreme and outrageous conduct dating back several years, thus constituting a continuing tort.”

    It's an open and shut defamation suit, by the way. He's going to lose this case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Hillary Clinton outraised Donald Trump two-to-one. It didn’t matter.

    So ends the most lopsided contest in modern campaign finance. And yet the deficit proved just one of the many odds Trump beat, another political convention he busted.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-clinton-campaign-fundraising-totals-232400



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,889 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I guess I do it out of a sense of occasion, going with other folks to do our civic duty. I also have never experienced more than a ten minute wait in 25 years of voting, normally it's only one or two minutes. Wherever such things happen, they're not in the SF Bay Area or central Texas. An option I picked up later in California was to have the ballot mailed to me, I'd fill it at home, and drop it off at the voting center on election day, but I only did that a couple of years.

    That, and there's no particular benefit to voting early. Something can always come along to change my mind. Don't forget, however cemented my position is on the Presidential, there are a lot of down-ballot elections down to the county judge, and I'm not a party line voter so am quite willing to see what's what up to the last minute.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭randomname2005


    Voters should see that behavior and know he shouldn't have the job, but many won't



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    He seems to hit line of being unashamed in his bigotry but also giving at least the shine of deniability that is what people are voting for. It might not reach the level of wondering how so many Russians keep falling out of windows but that is enough to give some deniability.

    Once he has that being a fit president is not important and many of these scandals such as the central park 5 or certain civil cases can be a positive. Those points are what a lot of people are actively voting for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ronjo


    Yeah, they should have waited until he was president ffs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ronjo


    Perhaps its not true but I have heard it mentioned a lot lately……. Are all the polls totally down the centre??

    And yes, I am basing a lot on hope as I am pretty scared of what will happen close to where I live if Trump wins.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,786 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    Deleted. Someone else has already made this point, and better than I did…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,295 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    That’s why the polls are a complete mystery to me - no shortage of money coming in for the Democrats - everyone and their mother on the Republican side coming out and saying don’t vote for Trump - Trump himself sounding and acting stranger every day - and still the polls are neck and neck?

    My only answer is the candidates don’t matter - it’s down to fundamentally which political philosophy do you wish for your country- Red or Blue?

    Obviously a lot of people are choosing red - maybe it’s as simple as that.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Seen on Twitter, summing up the total narcissism of Trump.
    And remember folks if Trump is President this is how he will approach disasters and emergencies.
    He is incapable of good governance.

    In case you missed it, Trump showed up in hurricane ravaged Asheville today, shutting down roads folks there are using to get food, medicine and water, and proceeded to stand in front of completely destroyed property so he could receive… a french fry pin.

    https://x.com/JoJoFromJerz/status/1848527067308023819

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Man alive, you’re in deep. How could a supposed billionaire serving chips seem authentic? It was a well executed stunt, that’s it.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,786 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    This is an odd post.

    If you were falsely accused of murder, falsely imprisoned, released (when the actual murderer was found and convicted) and then someone very publicly called you a murderer, you'd be OK with it? I have to say that I don't believe that is true.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ronjo


    but but but "The people know what is going on"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭CliffHangeroner




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,994 Mod ✭✭✭✭CramCycle


    And its not even meant to feel authentic. Democrats and Republicans have done similar stuff for years. Plenty of photoshoots of Obama doing "everyday" stuff. It is bizarre is being given any airtime. There are always some who will take it as him actually working there but most normal people realise it is a photoshoot, nothing else.

    Its no less fake than Obama flipping a burger, it is a photoshoot that normally picks up a little positive feedback locally, and nothing else, admittedly Obama actually pulls it off, doesn't hide that it is a photoshoot and jokes around with people. Vance tried similar with his ordering Donuts for the team and managed to somehow make himself look incompetent at the most basic of human tasks, and they hadn't even vetted the worker who was terrified of being on camera with him.

    It is a non story that some people are making into a story, on both sides, and neither looks particularly well giving out about it. It would have been weirder if he was actually working in McDs for an hour, it is weird that some think he was working and it is weird that some are call it fake as if it is some sort of revelation that he was trying to hide.

    Now the only benefit to Trump is that he has the first decent picture of him looking healthy on the front of media around the world rather than looking asleep or confused for the first time in weeks and secondly he has people focusing on a non story rather than actual issues. It has made a minor positive local story for him into a broader positive. How he is managing to look positive after a few months of sh1tshows is beyond me. If I was his campaign team, I'd be focusing on this type of media going forward, the rallies are failing, the speeches are failing and if he keeps them up it will cost him but this, might actually do him well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Dingaan


    Preparing and serving chips while having real conversation with staff and customers? Trump has a natural flair in these situations. The fact that he's a billionaire isn’t even relevant—it’s about connecting with people, and he does that well.

    I suspect Harris couldn’t do the same without a teleprompter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Great way to connect with people. Disrupt an area recovering from a disaster so Trump can get his silly photo op.

    When Harris did relaxed interviews eg on chat shows, she got criticised by posters here for not being serious!

    But now from same posters… crickets

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,026 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    There was no customers, the place was closed to them



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,894 ✭✭✭TinyMuffin


    now Harris will have to rob money from a charity, sleep with a pornstar and sexually assault people to get into trumps shoes.



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