Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

Meaning you see no correlation, at all, between betting odds being offered, and the real probability of the election outcome?

Can you expand a bit on why you say 'normal people' ?

The betting odds have not been 'manipulated'.

If more money is bet on A rather than B, then A's odds will decrease.

Where is the manipulation in that?

Right here

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/

and when you have such an easy mark: people who bought into trump university, trump watches, trump shoes, trump water, trump steaks, trump coins, trump crypto, the big lie, etc

The bookies are poised to change their fortunes and clean out a lot of those folks.

Something I read somewhere also suggested that it is in Main Stream Media's interest for the polls to be this tight.

If it was a case of the polls being 70% in favour of Harris or Trump, a lot of people would assume the election is in the bag for whichever candidate and so instead of watching the news every night, would go do other things. They like having this status quo. Trump does something stupid, people tune in to hear "Harris has gained a point", Harris does well but not 100% in an interview, people tune in to hear "Trump has made gains following Harris's recent poor performance in an interview".

It's like a football game. If Ireland were playing Germany, and you heard on the radio Ireland was 7-nil down, you wouldn't bother tuning in to the match, but if you heard it was the 70th minute and it was 7-6 to Germany, you would tune in, to see what happens next.

My head is wrecked 😀

I would have thought “Trumps ahead Trumps ahead” would keep the sense of urgency on the Democrats to mobilise their voters on the day - in other words, Trump being ahead is actually beneficial for the Democrats as it avoids complacency and ensures there’s a sense that every vote counts on the day ?

The outcome data of the polls themselves is probably accurate however the sample audience used for many/most is what's questionable.

Someone gets it. It's all about the clicks and likes. How much advertising revenue has Elon generated, the $1 million a day give away could be a drop in the ocean. Trump also holds some McDonald's shares I believe.

no I don’t think they are either with maybe some very exceptionally easily influenced cohort that may just “go with the crowd” .

I just thought the Newsweek article I posted on the previous page was interesting reading that’s all really - if the overall bookie statistics do predict yet another win outcome, that will be 11/12 correct predictions since 1980- not a bad record

Also plausible.

I share his cynicism.

I looked up for past cycles and I find it intriguing that ABC, and the NYT, both report 'the polls were historically accurate in 2022' for example

But both organizations run their own polls and monetize their own coverage based off those polls.

Fortune meanwhile has a piece up the top of the results about how pollsters actually got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022, arguing that polls are just "statistical sophistry." Though, to be fair, that article is also paywalled, lol. CNBC reports the polls were "so wrong" in 2016 and 2020.

But you don't need a media outlet to sell a new article to lay this all out, you just need a decent memory: in 2016 the Hillary 'coronation' went off the rails, after the bookies paid out early after the p*-grab tape came out, on election night after everyone went to bed Trump won in the wee hours of the morning; and for the next 3 successive election cycles (2 midterms and a general), people cited the polls and the betting markets banging their pots and pans about a "RED WAVE NOVEMBER" - which 3 for 3, was a wet spittle. Many a meme was shared about such pot and pan bangers left to eating lemons.

I think the most charitable explanation for why the polls are so close this time are pollsters skewing their weights to ensure its tight so that no matter what happens they can pretend they got it right all along - evidenced by the NYT and ABC referenced above.

if true, scary feicing times ahead that’s for sure

nice insight - thanks 👍

I hate conspiracy theories - but could it be possible that certain media outlets are keeping things “just so” as a way to influence the election outcome in the democrats favour?