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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,760 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Its quite limited by international standards, the mental health exceptions are not automatic; and not one party in Government here is far left unless you are incredibly, exceptionally far right. Which I suspect you are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,791 ✭✭✭StupidLikeAFox


    SFs biggest headache will be identifying running mates and getting vote management right. They made a balls of it last time - topping polls all over the country but only getting one elected. They will have to run enough candidates this time without splitting the vote and losing seats, added to that they will have additional independents hoovering up a protest vote they got the last time.

    Mary Lou actually has a running mate now - I wonder will her supporters be as vocal when she gets elected on the 5th count as they were about Leo



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,262 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Wromg, they let and encouraged SF try and form a government, but because SF couldn’t then they formed one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭gossamerfabric


    I think a large number of people are jaded with the sanctimonious Greens and SF's lack of substance coupled with their internal shennanigans leave little prospect of anything other than a FF/FG Government, God help us all.



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  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sure he might as well. We're used to having murders and criminals in the Dail, another one won't make any difference



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,813 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Apologies was quoting an inaccurate tweet here. These are the actual figures:

    Fine Gael is on 24 per cent (unchanged from September), with independents and others on 22 per cent (+2); Fianna Fail is on 19 per cent (-1), Sinn Fein 16 per cent (-2), Social Democrats 5 per cent (unchanged), Labour 5 per cent (+1), the Green Party 4 per cent (unchanged), People Before Profit-Solidarity 3 per cent (unchanged) and Aontu 2 per cent (unchanged).

    So actually very little change from the last one, SF only down 2

    FFG likely to fall just short of a majority of seats on a combined 43%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭gossamerfabric


    I expect increased vote transfer between FF and FG as that will be the Government people are voting for if they are voting for either party…through the Irish Political Looking Glass these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    FF and FG will transfer heavily to each other so that will mean a lot of seats will be got that way.

    Dont estimate that seat bonus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 320 ✭✭mehico


    It is possible that while FG may transfer reasonablely well to FF, this won't be reciprocated by FF voters.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Local election and European elections didn't show that as far as I am aware. They transfered to each other in similar numbers.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,805 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    Given the lack of a crediable right of centre party, then FF/FG again. The socialists/leftists seem to have mixed messages at least based on some canvasers I saw yesterday. Handing out leaflets on what they appear to designate as a housing crisis and yet were bedecked by Palestinian emblems and knick-knacks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 320 ✭✭mehico


    I am not sure about local elections because both FF and FG lost seats compared to 2019 but in the European Elections, FG polled better than FF yet still lost a seat where FF gained two seats with less of a first preference vote so appear to have gained via transfers from others including high FG preferences.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I say it's up to birth, you say it's limited. We'll have to agree to disagree. I can provide you with proof, but I'm sure you'll dismiss it because of (insert spell word here), so there's no point.

    They're all different shades of left, if you prefer, but my point is that they all have the exact same views on everything. On everything that matters. Trivial things such as giving a farmer a grant don't matter. There's no such thing as 'centre' or 'centre right', 'centre left'.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    What is a right of centre party?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Deep down, people know it's true. It's just that certain thoughts and views are unsayable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Can you point to any specific examples of how abortion is celebrated and encouraged please, just so we're clear on what you're talking about.

    If only there was some way that people could hold more than one issue in their heads at one time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Dreadful timing by her. At a personal level, I wouldn't blame anyone for stepping away, but you'd think she'd have announced 6-12 months ago to give her successor a decent chance to get organised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Not sure I see the contradiction of pointing out that there is a housing crisis in Ireland while also voicing concern for the plight of Palestinians.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sure. There was a rock concert in Dublin Castle in 2018 to celebrate its introduction. It is constantly called 'healthcare', a 'service' and a 'right', and there's no such thing as a bad 'right' or a 'service' or 'healthcare' that is undesirable. Doctors are paid more for abortions than to manage a pregnancy (€450 vs €250), which increases the huge number of abortions. The HSE advises that what they call "pregnancy remains" be flushed down the toilet. The cold way in which they advise that suggests that they believe it to be a good thing and of zero moral gravity. The "centre right" government voted against providing pain relief to small babies during late-term abortions. And babies who survive abortions are regularly left to die in agony. I can provide articles about a report on that.

    I don't wish to take the thread off topic, but I use abortion as an example only to show that there is no difference between any of these parties and that, in the context of the thread, it doesn't matter who gets into government.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,542 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Certainly odd in it's manner. Losing your deputy leader and senior Minister in the week you might call a GE seems very disorganised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    No. No they don't. Your post read like an unhinged fire-hose of misinformation and grievance. The "every party is far-left" trope in particular is something that you see peddled by openly fascist accounts online (and retweeted by Elon Musk of course).

    People don't want to accept that their views are far-right so they try and shift the entire political compass to make themselves feel better. Just own it for god's sake.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I wonder how much the abuse these TD's are the reason why so many are retiring.

    The online gobs**t crew we all know about which are on 24x7 attacking TD's and their families, their supporters and anyone who doesn't drink the same Kool-aid as they do.

    Just looking at her twitter account and looks very similar to every other government TD's with rolls and rolls of abuse from the same gobs**t you see across the internet.

    All hiding their actual details because they know the public would shun them if they knew what they are actually up to.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,994 Mod ✭✭✭✭CramCycle


    They never would have went in together if that happened as it would be too big an ego climbdown to be the junior partner. To be fair, while i have a great dislike of many of our politicians, it was a practical solution that would never have happened anywhere else. I didn't even think it would last, I thought one of them would get touchy and pull the rug out from the other awhile back but glad to be proven wrong. It would be great though to have a bit more oversight from a stronger opposition. The issue at the minute is they all have skeletons in their closets so no one will push too hard, this is pretty much all of them, FF, FG, SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,760 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Your "articles and a report" are going to be basless lies, though. You have been radicalised on this and will believe any old crap that supports your viewpoint.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,213 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Rock concert, yeah right. You know, a lot of people were relieved and pleased that they now had the same rights over their own healthcare and bodily autonomy as men have always had.

    Doctors encouraging abortions to make more money, that's just a ridiculous notion. A particularly witless conspiracy theory.

    You do know what happens to the foetus during an early miscarriage don't you? Or maybe you don't. Pregnancy remains includes the placenta and it's important that that is not retained in the body. You are seeing a moral judgement that isn't there.

    The "pain relief" thing is just the anti-choicers' latest schtick as everything else they've tried has failed. Why aren't they campaigning for pain relief during birth if they that concerned about it? It's entirely transparent and they don't care a whit about foetal pain, it's just a talking point for them.

    The usual scare stories about late abortions. Late abortions are vanishingly rare even in countries with much less restrictive laws then here.

    Will your articles and reports be from Ireland? If not, ireelevant.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,684 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    I'll ignore your general swipes at the availability of abortion and focus on the questions of 'encouraging and celebrating'.

    Tell me more about the concert please. Who organised it, who played, what was the theme - anything that actually substantiate your claim. Just to remind you, you said abortion was celebrated and encouraged, not that availability of abortion was celebrated and encouraged, which is a different scenario.

    It IS healthcare, and IS a service and IS a right. That's not celebrating or encouraging. That's a statement of simple facts that you don't like. They're still statements of fact.

    The idea that GPs are persuading pregnant women to abort to get a slightly larger fee is truly bizarre, especially when you've given a restricted version of the actual fees available.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You can write to UCC and let them know that their report is a baseless lie. It is researchers from UCC who produced the report.

    Because of how horrible the media are here, GRIPT are the only ones who thought it important to reveal what's going on every day here: Irish babies are being born alive and left to die after abortions - Gript

    And John McGurk anticipated people would refuse to believe Gript,, or, as you have done, immediately claim "baseless lies" and wrote the following:

    " … If you don’t want to believe Gript, then maybe you might believe Ellen Coyne, an avowed pro-choicer and one of the leading members of the media “yes” campaign in 2018, who wrote about this yesterday."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,213 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Its a sad reflection on the oppisition parties in this country that after 15 yrs in goverment that FG are still leading in the polls. i cannot think of another democracy where this would happen.

    Why wouldn't they be? They've been very successful over those 13 (not 15) years. You'd think that we were living in Venezuela the way some posters go on.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,213 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Gript. Why am I not surprised.

    Ellen Coyne writes for the Indo so if she's written what you say she has, why have you not provided a link?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



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