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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • #7112
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731700#Comment_122731700

    The release will be Friday.

    I wonder what more we have to learn about what happened on and before the 6th. I imagine a lot of the information will be previously learned from the committee's hearings but there are likely to be a handful of damning pieces of evidence in there as well.

    I would expect a lot of 'squirreling' tomorrow and over the weekend to try and divert focus away from the release.



  • #7113
    Cody montana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731713#Comment_122731713

    October surprise?



  • #7114
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731703#Comment_122731703

    Not really seeing that the interviews aren't going well for her.

    We Just had our local "centrists" failing to point out anything majorly wrong in her last interview with Fox and having to resort to copy pasting opinions from a far right Alex Jones Twitter crank.

    Meanwhile we have Trump's recent interviews.

    Of course I'm aware that Trump's support isn't going to be affected much by his disastrous interviews and rallies, while any misstep by Harris seems to her handing the election to Trump.

    Yet even with this extreme double standard, she's doing alright. Not sure how anyone could to better while also being electable.



  • #7115
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731718#Comment_122731718

    another one at least.

    My missus keeps anticipating we will hear audio of him saying the N-word, she thinks that would be the real Oct. Surprise.



  • #7116
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731733#Comment_122731733

    I'm pretty sure if that did come out, it wouldn't have much effect.

    I don't think it's that far out of the realm of possibility that in a few weeks when (hopefully) things are looking desperate and the pressure is really getting to him, he'll just blurt it out on stage.

    I also think this will have minimal effect.



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  • #7117
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731638#Comment_122731638

    I appreciate Kamala’s new “I ain’t got time for this nonsense” approach.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #7118
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    honestly lads, I’d prefer if the term “October surprise” was banned.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #7119
    Cody montana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731828#Comment_122731828

    Would banning October surprise be an October surprise?



  • #7120
    Raoul Duke III
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731854#Comment_122731854

    We could build a wall and deport all the surprises back to where they came from.



  • #7121
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,077 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731685#Comment_122731685

    Harris is by any metric the better candidate but she's also the continuity candidate. Trumps appeal to anger and grievance is working and has halted her momentum. It seems almost irrelevant that the changes he's proposing will make things worse for poorer americans.

    At the moment, given the polls past tendancy to under report Trump support it appears to be his election to lose.



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  • #7122
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731927#Comment_122731927

    The pollsters compensated for Trump underreporting, and they did it to much. I guarantee that the polls are over reporting Trump support because of this. The pollsters are also filtering out the surge in women's and youth vote meaning these left leaning demographics are significantly underrepresented in the polls.

    The polls are frankly worth **** at this stage.



  • #7123
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731927#Comment_122731927

    Unfortunately, I don't think there's anything any candidate could do convince such voters. And if Trumps behavior, policies and comments aren't enough to drive those people into at least not voting, then nothing can convince them.

    I severely doubt that there are very many genuine undecided voters left, and I'm not sure how effective appealing to this vanishing small subsection would be.



  • #7124
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731854#Comment_122731854

    only if we did it in August.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #7125
    eightieschewbaccy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731968#Comment_122731968

    Similar opinion to be honest, I also think there's more likely to be silent Harris voters than Trump ones.



  • #7126
    Lewis_Benson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731733#Comment_122731733

    It wouldn't matter, his devoted voters would still vote for him.

    He could walk down Harlem and kill 100 people and his MAGA maniacs would still kneel down for him.

    It's all very strange, but that's America for you.



  • #7127
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732012#Comment_122732012

    Yes I agree, the turn out at his rallys just shows that his voter base (the ones that should be the silent Trump voters) are simply bored at this stage. Boredom is a powerful demotivator.



  • #7128
    Dingaan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Dingaan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731968#Comment_122731968

    Do you have any specific arguments on polling methodology to back up this guarantee, or is it just 'trust me dude'?



  • #7129
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Harris just isn't a good candidate. She does not have the charisma or intellectual rigour of Obama and she doesn't have the folksy authenticity of Biden.

    Nationally for Democrats to win she needs to be up at least 5 or 6 points. Now it's a dead heat.

    Those with TDS should assume Trump has it won to make it easier for themselves on the night.



  • #7130
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732099#Comment_122732099

    Trust Rory?

    Former Tory MP Rory Stewart has urged people to take the polls with a pinch of salt, suggesting that he thinks the Democrats will win the election “comfortably”.

    “The polls don’t suggest this in part because the pollsters are so terrified of their false confidence in 2016 that they are making ever more implausible guesses on who might turn out for Trump”, he added.

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/trump-leads-by-10-46-but-rory-stewart-says-dont-trust-the-polls-384171/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #7131
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,623 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Watching Trump supporters desperately console themselves by saying "TDS" repeatedly is a bit weird. It's been a decade. He's not getting in again. He has no support outside of his dwindling base which he helped shrink with his covid conspiracy theories.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • #7132
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731719#Comment_122731719

    Yet even with this extreme double standard, she's doing alright. Not sure how anyone could to better while also being electable.

    Trailing in the battleground states is 'doing alright'.

    Given that you think Trump is so bad, shouldn't she be doing just a tad better than 'alright'? She should be way ahead.

    Also, not a great read.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgj4qyxlxn1o



  • #7133
    Patrick2010
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,767 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    Its funny how the ones who quote TDS keep talking about Harris.



  • #7134
    ronjo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ronjo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732111#Comment_122732111

    "Those with TDS"

    Are you 12?



  • #7135
    Dingaan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Dingaan


    Trump was on fire at the Al Smith Dinner. I invite you to watch the full video online—it's great stuff. Harris snubbed the bipartisan charity event, which Trump used to his advantage in his material.

    This bit landed very well:

    'I'm not worried about these White Dudes for Harris because all of their wives and their wives' lovers are voting for me.'



  • #7136
    eightieschewbaccy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732099#Comment_122732099

    Let's just note, even if he's entirely incorrect. Harris is generally leading Trump in the polls. Hence posters suddenly falling back to the betting markets. If polling is tangibly wrong in either direction, that can drastically change the predictions. Personally I'd prefer for closer numbers simply cause it'll motivate voters out to vote.



  • #7137
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731700#Comment_122731700

    Will this be the October Surprise?

    Trump is obviously very worried about the contents of this submission.



  • #7138
    eightieschewbaccy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732170#Comment_122732170

    Women are more likely to vote for Harris though so it doesn't help him and it's outright wrong. Trump fans are gonna think it's hilarious but that's about it. Also given his own history of cheating on his wife, not exactly genius to reference affairs.



  • #7139
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,438 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    It'll be interesting if Harris does win, how polls will be taken after this.

    We saw it with Brexit: easy win for remain.

    We saw it with Clinton: Easy win for Clinton.

    We saw it with Biden: Trump looks like he'll clinch the vote.

    We saw it with the numerous "red waves"

    And each and every time, it's, "We got it wrong last time. We fixed the problems, THIS time we'll get it right "

    I am biased against Trump, so I cannot see how he's grown his base to get a higher number of votes that he did in 2020.

    I can't see how the (now thousands) of well known or respected Republicans, be they military, civil or municipal that have come out batting for Harris hasn't moved the needle.

    I can't see how after January 6th, he grew his base.

    I can't see how after being found guilty of covering up hush money payments to a porn star, he has expanded his base since 2020

    I can't see how that when he was found guilty of fraud, the polls didn't dip.

    And I can't see how when he defamed a woman he sexually assaulted, which a judge said would have been rape in any other state, he didn't lose support, according to polls.*

    I just can't believe that any of those things didn't cost him any support AT ALL.

    I am clinging on to the hope of the silent non-Trump voter. They're the ones that turned up and voted for Nikki Haley when the polls said Trump would wipe the floor with her, but she got an extra 20% more than what the polls showed.

    I do wonder what would happen if she won by a complete landslide, like a 20%+ swing. (I know I'm in fantasy land, that's why I'm wondering) Would the Trumpers use it as "proof" that it's all fraud, and go to "war"? Or lick their wounds and regroup for 2028?

    *Not going against charter or OP. I did not call Trump that word used to describe someone who forces themselves sexually on another person. I described what the court reported.



  • #7140
    scottser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭scottser


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732111#Comment_122732111

    I reckon it will be a landslide win for Harris.



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  • #7141
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730810#Comment_122730810

    I remember an entire thread being set up for speculation about the causes of Biden's gaffes, and it going quiet very quickly.

    Meanwhile, in the real world, a major US newspaper, the Boston Globe has this recent opinion piece about Trump.
    Therefore it seems entirely reasonable that it be discussed here:

    Donald Trump’s answer to a question about child-care costs last month was eye-opening — not because of what it said about his agenda if he were to return to the Oval Office but what it said about his ability to do the job…
    I’m not a doctor, but     in a report for STAT, several cognitive experts who have studied Trump’s speaking patterns over the course of several years say his disjointed way of jumping from one subject to another — called tangentiality — and his increasing reliance on superlatives and absolute terms are consistent with several causes of cognitive decline…
    Though cautioning that they could not diagnose Trump without examining him, experts said his speech patterns match those of people experiencing the effects of things like mood changes, aging, and dementia.
    “There’s reasonable evidence suggestive of forms of dementia,” clinical psychologist Ben Michaelis told STAT. “The reduction in complexity of sentences and vocabulary does lead you to a certain picture of cognitive diminishment.”

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/10/16/opinion/trump-cognitive-decline-press-republicans/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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