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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,799 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Maybe you aren't listening but there is a long list of people making claims about being side-lined, ignored and left behind.
    Huge sums of money being 'wasted' on non essential things when people wait for treatment or investment in vital services.

    If you put your fingers in your ears you'll be grand though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …again, theres not going to be a significant change in irish governments for a very long time, so we have to accept there will be a continuation of major failures in critical needs such as housing and health care, its now critical we prepare as best as possible for this realisation, and it wont be pretty. we ll have serious societal issues, extremely high levels of mental health issues, addiction problems and other serious social problems including a rise in particular types of crimes…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Except new home building is ramping up significantly and we should start seeing 50k new homes delivered from next year onwards.

    Over the next 5 yr political term, it is very likley that the current govt will oversee the delivery of more homes than SF would.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    this is highly unlikely to be the case, as theres still significant supply side issues in regarding increasing to meet this target, we simply dont have the capacity to meet whats actually required, which will very likely mean significant supply shortages well into the 30s, helping to maintain hyper inflated property and rental prices.

    again, we ve actually no clue what would happen under a sf government, and we wont find out for a very long time, if at all, so we must prepare those that urgently require these properties, that this is very likely to be the case, which means many getting stuck in the family home for a far longer period than normal, and serious rental sector problems, of course there will be a rapid rise in relationship dysfunctions, breakdowns and other issues such a rise in mental health problems due to these issues….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,799 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There has been significant change in Irish politics and if FF and FG consolidate their union again that will usher in further change.
    Their supporters may enjoy the current hubris about getting back in but it will IMO be a short-lived one.
    The tacit merger was a mistake the first day it happened.
    I'm not saying SF will be the beneficiaries but it is clear to me that neither FF and FG can depend on support above that core vote they got in 2020. It will float away very quickly.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    im not actually convinced of this at all, not in the short to medium term anywy, i do believe the era of perpetual ffg governments is well underway, and will probably remain to be for some time, maybe well into the 30's, or maybe even into the 40's, who knows…

    their history of governance is truly showing now, in their ability to shift and change in accordance to societal wants and wishes, and the fact the opposition, in particular sf, are truly awful, and their lack of governance history showing very badly.

    the amalgamation of both ffg is significant, but again, it was ultimately a blocking technique, in which is currently working very well, and will probably remain to be for some time.

    i think support for ffg will to and fro over time, but will remain sufficient for government formation for a significant amount of time, and the only way of an alternative such a sf government to be formed, requiring a significantly high support, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for ffg to form a government, i.e. i cant see this happening for a very long time, but who knows

    ffg supporters have little to be worrying about…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,799 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You have a different view of the Irish electorate than I have.

    I think they will show dissatisfaction by removing support for one of FF or FG and that will end the block.

    Are either of them smart enough to see that coming and pre-empt it though is the question.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    very possible of course, but never ever underestimate both parties, theyre very shrewd operators, extremely good at pivoting just enough, to maintain their position of power and dominance, theyre no fools, some very intelligent folks in both parties helping to maintain this position. the budget shows this yet again, just enough, very clever stuff, and it ll work, they also have exceptional timing in regards pivoting, something sf are truly terrible at, another sign of experience in governance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    …………….. regardless of what combination of political parties may make up the next couple of governments.

    (You can't force, qualified doctors, nurses, tradesmen, teachers, engineers, etc. etc. to stay in Ireland if they don't want to; nor can you force people to train as nurses, as members of the Garda Siochana, the Naval Service, the Prison Service, etc. etc.).

    These problems won't be solved in the short term by any government promising to throw barrowloads of money at them; and only a fool would claim otherwise (I'm not suggesting that you're a fool, incidentally). Unfortunately, there's no shortage of fools on the Leinster House Benches; and some of their more populist utterances frequently gain significant media traction.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,799 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The FF FG coalition/merger blocking stroke may have been shrewd in the short term but it won't be in the medium to long term.
    Underestimate the electorate at your peril. The pivotal support is now a floating support.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We do have capacity.

    Commercial construction will come to a near halt by the end of the year and labour will be diverted to residential.

    The govt is also reforming the planning process via the new planning and development bill, making new home planning procedures move faster and with less rights to appeal, or opportunity for people to block new developments.

    It will be much harder to inititate a judicial review, which will make a big difference in stopping people holding up large scale developments.

    There is also a significant headcount increase in resourcing for ABP.

    Commencements this year are very high and with the record spend on housing allocated from budget 2025, along with changes to planning through the new bill and increased labour in the sector, the 50k completions per year target is achievable from 2025 onward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    You keep saying this but it keeps being pointed out that coalitions are the only game in town.

    Most people dont care if the govt is a coalition. If they did care, we wouldnt see a return of a coalition govt each election.

    No party is anywhere near gaining a majority for the forseeable future. So a coalition of sorts is the only option and it really isn't an issue; in fact, it's the norm.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    unfortunately many probably will continue to leave after education and training, and you cant blame them either, we ve created this blocking dynamic within our politics, and again, the opposition is truly awful, this will have serious negative consequences as our population ages, if this continues, we simply wont be able to maintain our economic success story, and will have serious problems meeting critical societal needs such as welfare(pension) and old age health care, due to this



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, completely disagree, it ll probably take a number of years for capacity to get to the required state, possibly well into the 30's, so again, we need to prepare for the serious societal fall out of that, i.e. a rapid rise in mental health issues, addiction problems, relationship breakdown, crime etc etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The commercial sector is already slowed and resource is already being diverted to housing. You will see the results in the increased housing output over the next few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yes i understand the issues within commercial, which could induce its own economic issues, but i dont see residential output rapidly increasing due to this, that may take a number of years to achieve, and by that stage….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,799 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It's who makes up the coalition that will be the issue.

    If you are losing support while in a coalition then you have to ask yourself is this right for the party. I think that is what will happen. One of the two will lose support as the electorate express dis-satisfaction and the grassroots/core of that party will have a decision to make. I think we saw some of this rumbling in FF ranks in particular already.
    Things will be hunky dory and dissenters can be silenced until they aren't. That's politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Its already happening. builders are already moving to residential projects.

    There is an oversupply of new office accommodation, but the job market is still very strong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    probably wont happen for along time though, ffg will stick to each other like glue, so its gonna take a hell of a lot to break that….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yes im aware of this, but again, i just dont see us reaching 50k+ for some time, so…..

    theres been an oversupply in commercial for some time now, this has been well known….



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    As long as FFG stick together, it doesnt really matter.

    They will still be in govt.

    FG are on the rise and FF are down slightly, but both want to be in govt and they can easily form one together, as they are already in govt!

    Individual party policies can be ironed out over the next 5 yrs.

    Once you accept that coalitions are the only way forward, FFG are basically one entity. If one rises and one falls, it doesnt matter too much, as long as they have the combined numbers to form a govt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,714 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We will be close to 40k this year, though probably wont hit the 40k mark. The pipeline is very strong and we have record commencements in 2024, so 50k next year is certainly achievable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,799 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    All great until it isn't. Party politics are probably the most vicious there are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    Time for Francie to make himself a double espresso! He's got a long afternoon ahead of him trying to get us to look the other way. I wonder how often Charlie Flanagan will feature!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Writing character references for individuals are brought before the court everyday.

    A political party writing a reference for a person who already under investigation for child abuse, to get a job working with children, is not done every day.

    If you cannot see the difference in the 2, then you are more morally corrupt than I thought.

    I must say, you are doing a great audition for the job of SF Press Officer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Given you don't have an issue with the pouches themselves, how much should it have cost to roll this scheme out to all secondary schools in the country?

    €1 Million?

    €2 Million?

    €5 Million?

    How much of the €9 million is 'waste'?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,598 ✭✭✭spillit67


    And yet when welfare fraud was brought up, this was apparently irrelevant.

    Why exactly would we trust the people who lambasted the Irish economy when they have now had a Road to Damascus like conversion?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    When the 'Dear Leader' passes away I am sure many more stories about Liam and Gerry will come to light.

    It will be the SF version of the BBC and Jimmy Saville.

    There are many depraved individuals still within SF but Gerry knows their secrets too, so its all a mutual recognition of saying nothing.

    The depraved protecting the depraved and we have the online useful idiots supporting them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,826 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    the reality is, this policy will probably have minimalistic effects towards to the overall problem, as theres far more phones in circulation than actual human beings, kids will very likely just present a none working phone, and continue on their way with their actual working phone….



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