Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

It will not end as long as it is fattening up the investments of certain people. We needed immigration controls a decade ago, but anyone who even suggested it had their career ended by being called the R-word or being compared to a mid-century Austrian politician.

What we have here is a deathly mix of an infantalised society that cannot accept harsh truths of reality (i.e., that resources aren't infinite and that all humans all over the world think the same way), a ruling class of gangster hyper-individuals who only think of their own pension pots and a state bureaucracy replete with pension collectors who never, ever face consequences for their actions. In short, there is no fixing this.

I predict that the native population of Europe will drift towards extremism on the right AND on the left. This is not going to end well.

The most basic responsibility of any government is to secure the territory over which it rules. If the people who run the state are unable (or unwilling) to do this then one must really ask what precisely they are there for.

That aside, asylum seekers and illegals are but a small fraction of the immigration into Ireland, Ukrainians excluded. The majority of people coming here do so entirely within the boundaries of the law. Ergo, the state is letting them in. I'm not going to add my personal views on that right now, but I ask one simple question. Why is the state doing this?

"I dont really understand your point about why the govt are allowing people to move here to work or study, why wouldnt they?"

I don't think that you're doing this deliberately, but this is a bit of a misrepresentation of my point. Probably I explained myself poorly.

Put simply, it's about the numbers. I posted this data from the CSO earlier in the thread, but I'll drop it here just to help my point:

• The population in Ireland rose by 98,700 people which was the largest 12-month increase since 2008.
• There were 149,200 immigrants which was a 17-year high. This was the third successive 12-month period where over 100,000 people immigrated to Ireland. 
• Of those immigrants, 30,000 were returning Irish citizens, 27,000 were other EU citizens, and 5,400 were UK citizens. The remaining 86,800 immigrants were citizens of other countries.
• Over 69,000 people departed the State in the 12 months to April 2024, compared with 64,000 in the same period of 2023. This is the highest emigration figure since 2015. 
• There was a natural increase of 19,400 people in the State comprised of 54,200 births and 34,800 deaths.

Just shy of 150k people came here last year. We can deduct the returning citizens, bringing the figure down to 120k true immigrants. Let's just assume that they are here to work and study. This is all well and good, and it would be fine in smaller numbers, but every extra person here needs accommodation and will use services. Housing is in dire short supply, and other services are also heavily under pressure.

That there are too many people entering the country is obvious, and the government know this as well as anyone else. None the less, they pursue policy that actively encourages enormous levels of immigration. I'm simply asking why this is the case as it is beyond unsustainable, it is eroding the quality of life of people here and it is stoking the flames of some very dangerous ideologies.

Whether they have accommodation sourced or nay doesn't matter. They are adding more bodies faster than homes can be built. This drives up the price of housing for everyone else already here, Irish or otherwise. We are talking about nearly 100k extra people NET each year.

Regarding the vacancies, this is indeed true. There are more jobs than people here. If these jobs cannot be filled by the people already here, doesn't that rather imply that the economy is getting too large for the country to sustain it?

Finally, even if housing could be built at a level to sustain 100k more people here a year, I would ask whether this is even a good thing to do. I for one care deeply for the environmental sustainability of Ireland, and building on that level means clearly land, building roads and pumping out a lot of CO2, which I would have imagined would be of prime concern to the government.

You seem to be approaching this from a purely economic frame of mind. This is fine, but the infinite growth model cannot keep going like this. Immigration on this level is unknown in human history, and where such things have happened before, they brought about enormous changes that rarely turned out well for the recipient countries.

Why not try to retain the Irish doctors! Why spend money bringing in doctors from abroad some with poor English, some lovely. Why not try and offer good conditions to the Irish doctors? Look at countries like Denmark?

Some people arriving are providing essential services. Many immigrants, if the not outright majority in recent years, are filling low-skill jobs. Whilst there is certainly a place for these jobs, many of them are not really needed at all and rather exist simply to provide luxury services. E.g., food delivery, house cleaning, uber drivers, etc..

Also, the idea that health services cannot function without immigration always seemed to be to be putting the cart before the horse. These services are stretched due to an enormous increase in population in a narrow space of time. Were there less people here, they would not be so strained, and thus the need for immigrant labour would decline.

I apologise if I across as nitpicking what you're saying. I'm simply using the opportunity to voice some thoughts.

The government said the decision was taken because the high number of refugees was putting a strain on housing, health care and schools in some cities."

So wealthy Norway is saying no as they care more about their citizens, while in Ireland we give them more money than to native citizens.

There is always a case for a work visa for non EU Countries. If you come here, you have to already have a job offer.

The cart before the horse analogy is too simplistic.

If all the immigrants were removed, then all the irish that are abroad would also be kicked out of the country they are living in. You cant have it both ways.

That would mean an influx of about 1.5 million people. Our population would then be larger than it is today.

Sure fire way to ramp up the housing crisis alright.

Let me be clear, I am categorically not saying that immigrants should be kicked out indiscriminately. There is a place for a reasonable level of non-nationals in any healthy society. I myself am the grandson of an Italian.

If remigration were to happen, it would probably be a cross-Europe project, and those repatriated would probably be from non-EU and non-anglosphere countries. As the majority of Irish ex-pats are in these countries, they would not be booted out in return. However, I will leave it as that as that's a very, VERY hot topic of discussion.

I think we see things differently here, so I will respectfully disagree with you.

Another metric by which we fail on. Bank of Ireland research seems to think it's worrying also and isn't dispelled by things like higher average household size.

https://www.businesspost.ie/article/ireland-lags-behind-european-countries-with-405-homes-per-1000-people-bank-of-ireland/

Some in Dublin do actually own accomodation already but its still not 'permanent' for staff. New hires are rotated through the accom, they just get a few months after they relocate in it as part of their package. They don't get to stay indefinitely though, so its still effectively temporary accom - even if the company owns the properties.

Exactly …and add our nurses to that.

"Finally, even if housing could be built at a level to sustain 100k more people here a year, I would ask whether this is even a good thing to do. I for one care deeply for the environmental sustainability of Ireland, and building on that level means clearly land, building roads and pumping out a lot of CO2, which I would have imagined would be of prime concern to the government."

I put this very argument to the Greenies the last time they came canvassing. They had a brain freeze! Maybe that's what they mean by rewilding.

But seriously if you travel around the northern outskirts of Dublin, as i frequently do, the scale of development is extraordinary in places like Maynooth, Ongar, Lucan, Leixslip, Ashbourne, Donabate etc. The woodland around Castletown House is the latest due for the chop. And it's mostly high density apartment style blocks. Coupled with this urban sprawl is the densification of the old city core in places like Marshall Yards and the Glassbottle factory. I presume the same is happening in Galway and Cork etc.

With an annual 2% population growth it can never stop - as belatedly admitted by Varadkar now that he's safely retired and pensioned off.

Not disputing that. My point is the overall scale of development of all types

I recognise my own words!

There is building going up and down the country. In my adopted hometown in Wexford, there are three active building sites, and more planned. Regardless of the BER rating on these houses, nothing is "greener" than an empty field. I would also add that the same Green party would support things like rewilding as you mention, where farmers allow land to return to nature for some of those ESG bucks.

The greens are pseudo-environmentalists. They are communists trying to sneak their ideology in in a green envelope.