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Is it time to join Nato

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭vswr


    Bar the Ukraine mission, the ramp up time for each of the other missions was a farce…. you know why… because everyone had to agree then deploy, that's what makes it a talking shop… If you also read my post, you will see I mentioned Denmark only want in now so they have input to security on their neighbours boarders.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    And so we move into the nitpicking phase.

    Lets do the same for nato, its main power tied up in a knot by internal Russian influenced corporate interests, and /or the changing tides of Israels mess.

    The US (and thus nato) doesnt care about any overriding standard as was the case initially, now its just about this quarters numbers.

    Europe can only rely on Europe.

    Looking to an increasingly isolationist America is foolish. Fxxk them. And Russia. Europe first.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭vswr


    Unfortunately empirical evidence isn't nitpicking… fully agree Europe should be relying on themselves, but currently no one is in unison bar the Baltic and Nordic states, who lack the compelling influencing skills on other states/worldwide without France/Germany.

    Not to mention the clusterfuck of trying to integrate with the UK…. technically, there is nothing currently in place except some unilateral agreements and the over arching NATO agreements, since Brexit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    Exactly what empirical evidence have you presented?

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭vswr


    me? nothing.

    EU however has tons of it. Especially when it comes to defence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    Right, so you say EU common defense is a talking shop.

    Then get shown csdps deployments which show it gets missions complete.

    Then the goalpost shifts to yeah but theyre too slow because they talk before taking action.

    Then the evidence shows this unfortunately, then actually there is no evidence.

    Great.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭vswr


    Goalposts haven't shifted at all… you project you're familiar with EU defence missions, yet clearly overlook the numerous criticisms of them, particularly in response time and then pull the "there's no evidence"…. get off the stage :-D

    majority of missions you mentioned have been the EU response to already established co-coalition missions, usually led by the American's, but, in the case of the Piracy mission, there has been middle east interfaces….

    It's easy to copy an already established mission, it's easy to meander slow time into a deployment, it's easy to meander back out of it while it's still ongoing and call it a success. All while posturing in Brussels "we're so great".

    Operation Sophia is a case study on how the EU does this copy and paste approach time and time again, and also how not to approach a Humanitarian aid mission, using an anti piracy template.

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09662839.2020.1845657

    If you are just copying what you've done before, whether it works or not, you are a talking shop.

    The EU are currently terrible at any proactive security. This is a known fact and something adversaries are taking full advantage of.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    Right, and whos the adversary?

    Russia. A laughing stock. 700 days to get past Avdiivka.

    Youre all about critisizing the EUs failings, and those failings might be something worth talking about if the adversary wasnt the Benny Hill of the worlds militaries.

    Piddling around in their golf carts, and their newest turtle tank blyat-mobiles. Desperately looking for a new angle.

    Just clocking up the losses, at a ratio which would be comic if it werent so tragic. This is in a country where they have control of the air.

    Were Russia the force which they were rumored to be for so long natos continued existence might still be justified.

    If Russia was not preoccupied getting slapped around by Ukraine, EU countries might actually need to be able to quickly manifest as one massive entity, but as it stands Finland/Nordefco or Poland would smash Russia.

    EU common defense is growing its ability to act as one, not that its even particularly needed.

    Nato meanwhile, is being led by an increasingly weird and self obsessed US, a country so in bed with Russia (the same adversary which concerns you) that theyre officially asking Ukraine to lay off attacking Russian oil production.

    Merriam Webster dictionary;

    talking shop; a place where people talk about doing things but do not actually achieve anything

    EU diplomatic office;

    Currently, some 3,500 military personnel and 1,300 civilian personnel are deployed around the world. Since the first CSDP missions and operations were launched back in 2003, the EU has undertaken over 40 overseas operations, using civilian and military missions and operations in several countries in Europe, Africa and Asia. As of today, there are 24 ongoing EU CSDP missions and operations, including 13 civilian, 10 military and 1 civilian and military initiative

    Does that look like a talking shop to you.

    No, it doesnt.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭vswr


    Adversaries, there's many… You've harped on about EUFOR missions and yet you come to conclusion that it's only Russia?

    That's some fantastic mental gymnastics.

    You can bark on about people in places and missions in x,y and z…. it still doesn't take away the fact that 99% of EU missions are:

    -reactive

    -slow

    -usually a copy of an existing coalition mission

    Diplomats have their part to play, but harping on about thousands of pen pushers in a hotspot, doesn't exactly meet the need of an offensive posture.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭amandstu


    I wanted to find out if there is strong popular support in European countries for their remaining in NATO and thought it might be as well to drag up this oldish thread (that I didn't participate in or otherwise have knowledge of)

    Maybe one of the participants or anyone else can tell me what the answer is to that question?

    Have polls been conducted?

    I did find this survey but it seems to be limited to Germany

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-nato-growing-in-popularity-in-germany/a-68749726

    What about the other countries ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    a quick search with the terms 'france, nato, popularity' yielded this result.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1422517/french-opinion-on-france-s-participation-in-nato/

    lukewarm, as expected. They dont believe in being Americas bumlick, unlike some.

    Countries.

    edit. This too

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/07/02/views-of-nato-july-24/

    Greece and Spain sure dont seem happy in nato.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Thanks.I had anticipated that France would be less favourable to NATO membership than other countries.They were against NATO membership for a long time before eventually joining..

    This is from the site

    "

    According to a survey conducted in February 2023, exactly one year after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 52 percent of French people believed France's participation in NATO was a good thing, in the context of the war. On the other hand, 19 percent of those surveyed thought it was generally a bad thing."

    I wouldn't call that lukewarm (not overwhelming admittedly) and would not suppose that the majority of the french respondents to that survey (or indeed "other countries") would appreciate your characterization of them as "being Americas bumlick"

    I wonder what other notable countries' (UK,Spain ,Italy,Poland ,Ireland etc ) corresponding levels of support would be?

    Would they also be, in your words "America's bumlicks"?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    Very well, would 'somewhat ambiguous' be acceptable.

    27% in France stats are undecideds.

    Spain is even more cynical on nato.

    I expect such survey stats to climb in the mid term, depending on election results in US, and how things go in Ukraine.

    We've all now seen that Russia isnt half the power it was made out to be. And we've seen the unreliability of the unpredictable US.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Yes "somewhat on the fence" maybe.As you would expect from any independent country and with the oddity of the senior partner that is sadly in plain view.

    Russia is as great of of a threat now than ever, imo and it would be very interesting how Nato's "hanging fruit" (Latvia et al) see the situation.

    If Russia goes in there then Nato is duty bound to repel the attacks and ,probably take territory in the same way that Ukraine has . Finland might be up for that.

    I am still interested as to the breakdown of Nato's acceptability across all member states .

    We have France ,Spain(if you are right) and Germany but there are many others.

    USA and Canada would also be interesting to know.

    Edit :I think I have found the up to date figures all round

    https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1242964/survey-finds-popular-support-for-nato-at-a-challenging-time-for-the-western-alliance/

    and

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/07/02/views-of-nato-july-24/

    Yes Spain seems a bit more skeptic than France , as do Greece and Turkey.

    Hungary ,interestingly is holding on to nurse for fear of worse.

    And US has a decent majority level of support

    (58/38 - but Trump may choose to weaken Nato anyway if he thinks it will make him look good(and he wins in November)

    Post edited by amandstu on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    it was all in the 2nd link.

    Russia is down in strength by 620,000 men, vs 2022. And its economic foundations are weakened. I can understand the Baltics feeling a need for nato, for now. The rest of the continent would kick the shyte out the Ruskies.

    The global map, and the decades of for-profit hype would have you think otherwise, but theyre basically Mexico on roids.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭amandstu


    They are a nuclear power and ,at the time of the Ukraine invasion (the main invasion) it was expected that they would roll through to Kiev in short order if they were stupid enough to take it on.

    That was just a few years ago and it is not a given in my mind that they will not end up with Crimea ,East Ukraine maybe Odessa if there is a collapse in Ukrainisn morale and resources

    Then Russia would have time to rebuild and regroup (even if I hope that the bottom will soon fall out of the petro chemical market as a result of the transition away from fossil fuels)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 923 ✭✭✭buzzerxx


    op, NOOOOO…….Vladimir Putin has firmly stated that if the U.S allows Ukraine to use long range missiles against Russia… Europe and all NATO countries will be drawn into a Nuclear War..“You won’t even have to blink your eyes when we carry out Article 5 of the Roman Treaty”…Russia has the most confirmed nuclear weapons, with over 5,500 nuclear warheads.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Not really concerned about how many missiles Russia has, doesn't make a whole lot of difference if they launch 5 or 5000. The only thing to be concerned about if they were to follow through with their threats, and nothing to suggest they would be more likely now than in 2022, is if any of their missiles actually work.

    Russia has repeatedly claimed that any involvement from the West in supplying arms to Ukraine would result in them taking action against NATO. Russia has done nothing, whilst the west is gradually taking tiny steps forwards (painfully slowly) in relaxing restrictions on Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Ukraine already has homegrown long range missiles and enough highly radioactive materials to make every major western Russian city uninhabitable for a very long time by using dirty bombs

    That alone would stop Russia from using nukes as they are not invulnerable and that’s before we get to what other countries like China would do as last thing they need is to completely lose western markets of that dipshit in Kremlin



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,221 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Hype about dirty bombs is just that, hype.

    Actual nuclear weapons didn't make Hiroshima or Nagasaki uninhabitable, there's no way a dirty bomb would.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,056 ✭✭✭TokTik


    There’s nothing stopping you joining the US/UK army, or one of the foreign Ukrainian battalions if you wanna prove your non-cowardlyness. Any govt official pushing to join a war mongering machine should have to sign a decree stating that they and their families will be first into the frontlines. We’d soon see peace then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭vswr


    If they don't have a green card, that would definitely stop them joining anything in the US. There is no more citizenship through military service.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 577 ✭✭✭Randycove




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    These were air burst nukes and they certainly de populated the areas, ground burst would have released more radiation but killed less in blast

    But my point stands, given homegrown capabilities Ukraine already has nuking them would be so monumentally stupid as they can repay in a much worse way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,056 ✭✭✭TokTik


    Of course it is. Look at all the babies NATO weapons have defended Israel from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 577 ✭✭✭Randycove


    Israel and Palestine are not in NATO??

    I think you are a bit confused.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,995 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I think you see what level the conversation is on, regarding NATO membership.

    I'd suggest those who walk around with Palestinian flags in Dublin would be against NATO membership.

    I think it's time for Ireland to join NATO and also take sides with Israel, not those terrorists and rapists in Palestinia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 577 ✭✭✭Randycove




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