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The decline of FG?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,746 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Common complaint heard on the radio is we have a lot of young teachers gone to the middle east and Australia etc. But if only 10% of them are gone we shouldn't have that issue should we?

    I was hoping for clarification on your post but the fact you can't give it is noted



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    The problem with teachers is like nurses,they're not paid enough

    Pay them more and then you have other unions up in arms striking

    Pay them and you've the next lot striking

    Whats needed is a law on essential workers pay backed by a referendum

    I'd certainly vote yes

    No party advocates that because they are afraid to

    Btw teachers are just a percentile going to Australia ,theres a mix of everyone

    Same as there is coming home

    They're not going there for housing opportunities



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They're not going there for housing opportunities

    They are going in hope of a better life which may or may not include housing opportunities denied to them here. Some are going and returning in the hope of overcoming what they are being denied here - opportunities.
    FG and FF's votes have declined because the type of society they have created denies opportunity for some.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    Tbh ,since my mate said yesterday you were a fine gaeler and I've no wish to take part in an internal Fine gael experiment of some sort,I can't engage sorry 😆



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well at least we have an admission that you are a Fine Gaeler and like your former leader Enda, take your lead from what you hear down the pub.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    Sorry I can't engage,other to say,you'd have to be dyslexic to read my comment as 'I am a Fine gaeler'

    Now please do carry on with the experiment without me,you're doing very well to be fair 😆



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Whatever,

    I have had enough of the disingenuous shape shifting tbh.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,843 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Mod: no personal attacks. If you want to correct another pooster's spelling then head over to one of the Education forums.
    Next personal attack will be properly sanctioned.
    One post deleted.

    I'll also point out that this is not a thread to discuss SF. Do not attempt to derail the thread down the usual rabbithole that SF threads find themselves!!!!!!!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    In 2023 Ireland built the most houses per capita in the whole of Europe.

    Our housing output is as good as it gets. Easily hitting 40k new homes this year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/650798/initiated-dwellings-by-country-europe/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Well, that's the thing. FG have changed their leader, energised their party, and as a result, have recovered in the opinion polls, increased their vote in the local and European elections vis-a-vis the last general election. At the very least, the decline has halted.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This is down to the record number of first-time buyers. Young people are buying houses in record numbers now and seeing their friends buying houses. The opportunities are there now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is definitely Comical Ali to be suggesting that 2015 was peak austerity. This is from Budget 2015:

    "When the Government took office in March 2011 we set out a plan to regain control ofIreland’s fiscal and economic policies, to grow the economy and to get people back to work.Many people both inside and outside this House believed that we as a Government would failand opposed each and every step we took along the way.But, A Cheann Comhairle, the Government did not fail. We exited the bailout. The publicfinances are under control. The Irish economy is growing at the fastest rate among developedeconomies. The rate of jobs creation in Ireland is one of the fastest in Europe. "



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It remains to be seen how that has worked in a GE context.
    It didn't increase their local election vote nor their EU one. Both votes declined.

    We know from history that Local and EU election performances do not necessarily transfer to GE votes, That's a given, being that they are different elections with differing considerations for the voter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Local elections and general elections don't happen at the same time, that is why the results are never replicated!!!

    The main difference is the timing, not the different considerations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Here's a view from outside of the situation even as late as 2018 (bolding is mine and gives the lie to a vainglorious government press release):

    A dearth of housebuilding over the past 10 years, despite rising household incomes and a sharp increase in employment (from 1.8 million in 2012 to well over 2.1 million last year), has also sent rents soaring, leaving many young workers to miss out on the recovery.

    Meanwhile homelessness remains a major problem across the country. And in some areas negative equity and mortgage arrears mean the scars of recession remain. More than 8% of the population live in consistent poverty and 7% of mortgages are still more than three months in arrears.

    It makes for a divided nation, uneasy about a recovery. A recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll found that 52% of voters are “dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country” compared with only 37% that are satisfied.

    Seems the public weren't buying the government spin and relegated FG even further come the following GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    How does an opinion on something else from 2018 have anything to do with the fact of peak austerity being 2015 which is what you claimed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Here is the 'claim' I made. I will bold the relevant words. You again alter what was actually said in order to dispute something.

    which was probably near the peak of the austerity….

    The relevance of the 2018 article was to show that austerity measures created by the party which should never be near finance again in the opinion of some, were still having a divisive effect. And again in the 2020 GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …you gotta love ffg supporters! yes we ve started to increase our supply, but how have we been trying to do that you ask! by stimulating the demand side of the process, i.e. by doing everything possible to increase the price, so yes supply is increasing, but so to is the price….

    …now that goes against all logic of so called 'economic laws' doesnt it! i.e. an increasing supply should in fact help to at least stabilise prices, or best, decease prices, but it isnt, and wont!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,746 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    That's actually not bad, think they were targeting 50,000 a year (250k over 5 years) so they'd be around the 80% success rate.

    Mind you, the SF plan is for 60,000 new homes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    2015 "probably" peak austerity is the claim you made, and as on the balance of probability is sufficient to prove a civil claim and stands up in court, your defence of only using "probably" has no merit.

    Your claim of 2015 peak austerity can either be backed up by factual evidence or it cannot. Peak austerity isn't an opinion, it is a fact, you can point to the 2015 budgetary measures that were more draconian (or not) than any other year if your claim has any merit.

    Austerity lingers for decades, so the 2018 article is meaningless, and if that it all you could find to back up your claim about 2015 peak austerity, the claim is even more laughable than I thought.

    There is no credibility to your claim.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    2015 "probably" peak austerity is the claim you made, 

    Why are you altering what I actually said.

    since 2015 which was probably near the peak of the austerity

    My claim was austerity and it's unfairness and the hypocrisy of FG buying votes with it's 'new politics' waffle led partly to their performance and decline in 2016 and 2020.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That isn't your claim, you cannot change the words you wrote. You have claimed that 2015 "was probably near the peak of the austerity". That is absurd nonsense. The country was well into recovery by then. Here are the tax measures announced in autumn 2014 to apply in 2015:

    "To deliver on this plan, I am: Increasing the entry point to the Universal Social Charge to just above €12,000removing 80,000 low income workers from the charge altogether; Increasing the entry point to the second rate of USC from just over €10,000 to justabove €12,000 and the upper ceiling for this band is increasing from just over €16,000to just above the level of the minimum wage; Reducing the 2% USC rate to 1.5%; Reducing the 4% USC rate to 3.5%; Increasing the Income Tax Standard Rate band by €1,000 to €33,800 for singleindividuals; Reducing the top rate of Income Tax from 41% to 40%;"

    We must be the first country in the world to have ever introduced tax cuts near the peak of austerity.

    Your posts on a range of issues have been consistently wide of the mark for quite some time now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What was 'near the austerity' literally depends on your point of view.

    The point is, FG's 'Keep The Recovery Going' message of 2016 (which was to continue the austerity perceived by many as unfair, as the Guardian percentages underlines) saw FG lose 10% of their vote and to continue to decline in the following GE. From 29% to 20%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 742 ✭✭✭moon2


    Edit: decided against engaging :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Bonkers.

    I know one-word answers aren't the norm in the Politics forum, but it is also meant to be a serious forum where opinions are based on facts, not on nonsense. 2015 saw tax cuts, the opposite of austerity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There were small tax cuts in a 3 year programme to end austerity measures.

    Again, 'near the peak' depends on your point of view. We have your definition, I have mine and neither changes the substance of the point I made. Can you address the substantial point.

    The point is, FG's 'Keep The Recovery Going' message of 2016 (which was to continue the austerity perceived by many as unfair, as the Guardian percentages underlines) saw FG lose 10% of their vote and to continue to decline in the following GE. From 29% to 20%.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If your facts are wrong, and they are, 2015 was nowhere near the peak of austerity, then the point you make is automatically invalid.

    It's a bit like holding the opinion that the purple hair of unicorns is a distraction to cows. As there are no unicorns with purple hair, the question of a distraction to cows is moot. Similarly, as 2015 clearly wasn't the peak of austerity, some gobbledy-gook point about FG and election 2016 in the Guardian is also moot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …its also critical to explain what that government truly meant in regards the use of the term, 'keep the recovery going', its was ultimately in relation to the value of assets, and in particular property, hence why there was a significant increase in the involvement of investment funds in our property markets, as the rest of country was swamped by the fallout of the crash, and the subsequent austerity measures! nice bunch of lads there!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,524 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    That's part of the point.
    FG missed a huge opportunity in 2011,
    They rolled out unfair austerity to fix something FF mainly caused, they looked after some and cushioned others, and then rehabilitated FF because they knew they needed them.

    They have faced the electorate several times and still cannot figure out why their vote is in decline. I.E. the pool of voters benefitting from both of them staying in power is also declining.



This discussion has been closed.
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