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The decline of FG?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    Again other opinions vary

    A lot of votes were loaned to FG to turf out the incumbents in 2011 and it worked

    A lot of votes were loaned it seems in 2020 to SF doubling their vote to no avail,how many loaned votes does current polling suggest SF have lost and they never having been in government at all?

    People in glass houses etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yeh I agree. Opinions vary. So what? It’s a discussion forum with many opinions. Funny yours needs SF to make sense of things or is it look over there and not at us?
    I think SF have very little to do wirh FG’s decline as stated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Opinions may vary, but facts don't.

    In the general election of 2020, SF got 24.5% of the vote, and failed to go into government.

    In the local election of 2024, SF got 11.8% of the vote.

    In the European election of 2024, SF got 11.1% of the vote.

    Their European election performance has declined two elections in a row, from 19.8% under Gerry Adams in 2014 to 11.8% with MLMD's first go to 11.1% in 2024.

    Them's the facts, that is what a decline looks like.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 320 ✭✭mehico


    With respect I don't find this comment pleasant or funny given the topic being discussed and the large numbers of the population affected as cited by ESRI and SVP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I don't believe that poverty is accurately measured.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    SF were mentioned to make a legitimate point,the folly of their no 1 supporter here going on about vote loss by a government party during the worst downturn & austerity ever vs what seems to be happening to the chief opposition party after 5 more years of government by their opponents,which is a worse political performance,its all about context?

    As I said glass houses etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch the point made about FG’s decline has nothing to do with comparisons to how others are doing or did do in elections.

    FG’s vote under Garret was 44% Enda got 36% and lost 11% of it and Leo managed 20%

    They lost votes in the local and EU elections too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    We routinely get all sorts of suggestions about what SF need to do to improve their vote, not least from you. Ditch Gerry, ditch MLMD, turn their back on their past, etc etc.

    What do FG need to do to arrest the decline in their vote and end the dependence on FF who might try to distinguish themselves as a different party at any time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    end the dependence on FF

    Why should they seek to do this? What is wrong with an ongoing loose alliance with FF from FG's perspective?

    might try to distinguish themselves as a different party at any time.

    Well FF did their level best to do this in the run-up to the last election and look where they ended up

    Best way for FG to ensure FF 'stay true' is maximise the combined party seat total, ideally securing a majority of Dail seats between (which looks eminently achievable in the upcoming election) and concomitantly make it as difficult as possible for FF & SF to form a government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    The funny thing is,they appear to have done something to arrest it already,you know like dump their leader? You'd swear by you they were in mortal decline or something

    Problem for people of your persuasion is,it's blatantly obvious they're not,no matter how much you say it?

    Cue...protest 'I never used the words mortal decline' or some such diversion tactic nonsense, like the protest earlier from you about the how is everything so terrible when everything is so good,question I posed to you and you didn't want to answer,upthread



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,197 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    So after nearly 14 years in power and it base dropping it looks like the FG vote is stabilising and could be back to 2016 levels. +/-3% means it could be 27%..

    At 24% with a FF at 20% it means combined the pair are within the grasp of an over majority in November and SF will spend another 5 years moaning. The only goid thing is MLMD will be gone....then again the beardless hate to admit they got it wrong.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Their vote isn't 24% though. That's as flimsy as SF's 35% was.

    As @pureza has mentioned 'mortal decline' what actual vote percentage is mortal decline for FG?

    *Pretty poor ambition there BTW. If the goal is as suspected by some and known by many 'just keep the shinners out' and cling to power with who ever, I personally don't think that is sustainable tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I did answer you.
    I said in my opinion things are not terrible but several key things are and FG FF and GRs have demonstrated adequately they can't or lack the will to tackle them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    You did not answer

    You just said you didn't say things were terrible and deflected like mad in some effort to avoid why things are so good

    Lets be clear Fine Gael had 27% of the vote in 1989

    35 years later,4 or 5 months before an election,after 13 years in government,polls have them at 24% and poised to be returned,fierce decline that I don't think?

    Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael working together is a seismic change in the way this country was governed by the way,no two ways about it and if its what the public want,it will be with both eyes open now which is democracy isn t it

    The biggest mistake in this thread and some of the others is the title

    Titles should by virtue of whats inevitable,have a set template "lets bash [insert party name here]"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You did not answer

    You just said you didn't say things were terrible and deflected like mad in some effort to avoid why things are so good

    Yeh I did, in the very next post.

    I never said things are ‘terrible’. In order not to address the point you made that up. Some things are demonstrably terrible and continue to be..

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122589539/#Comment_122589539

    IMO the coming together of FF and FG will see a continued degradation of their core votes. I think as demonstrated that is happening already.
    The thread title, snowflake considerations aside (in the context of some thread titles seen here) is perfectly valid. In actual voting terms FG's vote has been in decline for 30 years. The combined vote of two similar.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 320 ✭✭mehico


    Fair enough on the title of the thread, is it referring to opinion polls or actual elections? If it is elections it probably accurate, FG lost seats at the recent local election where most other parties made gains. For general elections, FG has lost a significant number of seats in each subsequent election since entering government in 2011.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The reason we need to see an actual vote to garner where the FF/FG merger/coalition is at (all here seem to accept that this is in fact a merger now) is polls are one thing but an actual election and delivering that poll percentage is another. Was it Albert who said 'it's the small things that slip you up'.

    If there is more to come on waste and ministerial incompetence I'd wager that 4% gain could easily be wiped out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    I think my comment is valid regarding the thread title,this is the Fine Gael bashing thread with various forays into it by the Sinn Féin haters

    It's all just noise really

    I think also my comment regarding whats been happening in voting over the last 40 years is the introduction of options

    Variety

    Whats more interesting is the centre,steady as you go nature of the vote in that its the centre variety of options that are doing best isn't it including FF ,FG and their various connected/related gene pools

    Anyway,I'll leave ye all at it,4's enough to play this posting tat tit without me for now ,have fun lads



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I’m sure the thread title does grate if you are in denial of the black and white facts.

    Sure change it or close it, see will that alter reality.

    You do seem able to ignore fact. Do you accept the factual evidence that I answered your question on how things were?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,197 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    FG core vote was always 20-25%, they seldom went significantly below it in the last 100 years. At time they popped above it to form coalition government's.

    In 2011 after the crash it recieved a significant number of FF/floating votes. In the 80's it was the main beneficiary if the floating vote, this transfered to Dick Spring labour party in the 90's.

    They transferred back to FFfor the noughtirs. After the 2010 crash a significant cohort of not just the floating but a FF vote as well transfered to Labour and FG. I'm 2016 FG held there core and a bit with it as FF recovered. SF and Ind took the fickle floating vote and held it in the 2020 election. FG held its core more or less and FF took some of its vote back. FF will not recover to its hey day of a 35%+ core vote but will hold a center left core of 20ish% for tge next election

    Now as the parties stand it looks like FG will hit the 25%. Not only that FF/FG gene pool hold another 10-15% of the vote. I be watching these transfers I'm the election to see do they transfer to FG/FF or to the left.

    At 45% combined and with the left splitting a 40% vote into 5-6 factions FF/FG will hit an overall majority they will hit 90 seats

    SF will probably drop 5+ seats and it could be significantly worse if the stand too many candidates

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    If the goal is as suspected by some and known by many 'just keep the shinners out' and cling to power with who ever, I personally don't think that is sustainable tbh.

    But what political arrangements are 'sustainable' in the long or even medium term anyway? We are coming to the end of a second term of government based around FF-FG agreement. If as is looking increasingly likely FFG secure a narrow majority of seats in the upcoming GE that will set up them up well to retain power in the Dail after that as they can potentially tap pretty much the entire rest of the Dail bar SF and the Hard Left when putting together a government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    But what political arrangements are 'sustainable' in the long or even medium term anyway? 

    I am one of those lost voters. And I have not ruled out voting for them again.
    What I won't vote for is a combination of both of them designed simply to hold onto power. That, I am positive, will not be sustainable and at some point the electorate will tire of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    TBH that's just another way of saying the same thing. The percentage vote that FG can capture is in decline. From 44% under Garret to 20% under Leo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,197 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    BS. The 44% under Garrett Fitzgerald was a one off anomaly. Before that FG hovered between 20-30%. They never before attained 44% and never did again and at 44% I think could barely form a government.

    Can we say that SF are In permanent decline because they were at 35% and now back below 20%.

    You have too much time on your hand stop sitting inside go foa walk and a pint.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Anomally or not, they were able to attract that vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    a combination of both of them designed simply to hold onto power. That, I am positive, will not be sustainable and at some point the electorate will tire of it.

    But this still isn't saying anything: electorates tire of all political parties and alliances at some point. I've sketched out what looks to me a plausible scenario of FF & FG serving two further terms in some form of partnership, taking FG up close to 25 years in consecutive power if those governments go anywhere near full term. IMO if they achieve that FG's decision to pursue alliance with FF from 2016 will have been entirely vindicated, irrespective of what comes after…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I wonder if there's any correlation to all the 18-34 year olds being forced to go abroad for work and this fact?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    I doubt it,since over 90% of them are at home,maybe do some basic research before posting such crap ?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/710767/irish-population-by-age/

    https://www.thejournal.ie/emigration-poll-thejournal-6375309-May2024/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,197 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    First off I know no 18 year old goes abroad and any over 30's are doing a years travelling. I know about 20 that are or have travelled at present since COVID. My better half niece and boyfriend are back after 6 months in Australia. My nephew is gone a plumber it could be ten years before he is back but it's his choice.

    Know a lad gone at present he has his own business his parents are managing it with a friend of his. He be back late this or next year. He was home a few weeks ago fir 15-20 days.

    Most people travelling are going to Australia which is more expensive and housing is more expensive than here as well. They do it by CHOICE in the main they are not FORCED

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,527 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Emigration at it’s highest since 2015 which was probably near the peak of the austerity caused by the party FG said should never be in charge of finance again. Who is the MoF again?



This discussion has been closed.
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