The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

No evidence that they'll poll or elect as many as in 2020. In fact any evidence is to the contrary (elections since then and polls) unless they turn the ship. If they were to stand at 2020 level, a SF candidate would be a shoe-in in every constituency.

Voters can change in 2 months

They changed rapid from nov 19 to february 2020

Partisan Boards posters get carried away and forget these important details

SF did not take the locals results seriously enough.

They appear to think they failed because their communication failed. There has been a noticeable ramping up of their “comms” and trying to focus again on housing.

IMO their downfall is traceable not only immigration but also thinking that the housing greatest hits will work. In truth 2020 was very unique. Housing supply was increasing by then but hadn’t hit the market yet. You basically had an entire generation sitting at home seething with their parents. Since mid 2020 there has been an explosion of those getting not just HTB but also first time buyers generally.

I don’t think the government have “won” all of those who have gotten onto the ladder (it should be noted that both FG and FG would be shocked if you told them 15 years ago about their polling numbers today) but the anger gone down a notch, or at least is more understood. People see it is an increasing shitshow everywhere else in the West as well.

SF keep playing the hits emphasising the homeless numbers but do people really care? Are they desensitised? Have migrants in tents changed perceptions of homelessness?

The third really dangerous thing for SF imo is their €100,000 tax policy which hasn’t hit them yet. Cliff Taylor is really going on about it now and it is an open goal for their opponents. As a policy it is going to really hit them with middle earners and those who aspire to it once it gets out on the campaign. It’s also the kind of one that is really difficult for SF to roll back on as €100,000 is such a psychological barrier.

O'Broins housing policy will be the final act of self destructionfor SF. So over-hyped, but built on sand. The electorate won't go for his half-baked leasehold model and he very quickly find himself on the defensive on the detail.

Lynn Boylan was asked this morning if the banks will sanction lending for a house on a site you don't own and she ran a mile from the question. She has no clue on the proposal it seems.

Damp Squib incoming.

The word on the ground is that many of these TD's who were elected in 2020 have not impressed on the ground and have been nowhere to be seen for years. They were lucky to be elected at the time, when there was an anti-government shift to SF.

It is expected that some of those will lose their seats.

tis actually common enough in politics around the world, poor choices, but sf are truly dreadful alright, so there may never be an alternative government in ireland, tis very likely we ll see many ffg governments to come…..

ffg will be just fine for the election, no real fear from sf, i.e. the best way forward for ireland, for change to occur, is to stay the same, maybe that should be ffg's slogan!

government is doing just fine, doing what it truly was designed to do, i.e. to protect those that benefit from the accumulation of wealth, tis all good!

Rent freezes? It’s ridiculous.

O’Broin has spent the guts of a decade listening to lovely sounding solutions rather than thinking them through.

I really suspect with this policy announcement that they don’t want in power this time. The rent freeze alone will kill funding for new housing.

Who are earth would build if they are told they cannot increase rents?

In three years time it would be the exact same as Rent Pressure Zones and the eviction ban, hugely problematic to roll back.

The Sinn Féin “plan” mostly just added 10,000 houses to what everyone else is planning. They are still hugely reliant on private construction, particularly those looking to rent out properties.

It is an insane idea that will kill their housing proposals on arrival.

The nettle that needs to be grasped by everyone is that the economy cannot sustain the current rent levels. They are completely out of whack with wages. Ditto house prices. Thats the elephant in the room. Now wouldthe Sinn Fein policy gonig to do what is needed. Probably not. But grants and tax breaks and interest reliefs are not the solution when rents and house prices are at least 30-40% above what is sustainable.