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The decline of FG?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


     and handed over his council seat to his wife



    Bit of memory loss with that blanch?

    Far as my research can see, 2 years after Paul Donnelly was elected to the Dáil, Angela Donnelly was co-opted to replace Aaron O'Rourke in a series of co-options that saw the Greens, Labour and the Soc Dems do the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Oh, I got the timing wrong. O'Rourke was initially co-opted to replace Paul Donnelly, and after a suitable amount of time, stepped aside, and Angela co-opted instead. Like Angela, O'Rourke wasn't elected.

    The essence of my point, that Angela inherited was co-opted to the council seat that her husband was elected to, stands.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I don't think there is a leasehold aspect to the SF plan and we already have the "seperate private market" in the affordable housing scheme. For clarity the scheme allows lower income families buy houses at more affordable prices so it ends up costing the owners much less in the long run than had they bought at market prices.

    Generally speaking lower prices winds up costing less in the long run for the property owners, not sure how you'd think otherwise

    In what way will they not work?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Didn't SF do better in the recent Local Elections than they did in 2019?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Every party uses the co-option process.
    The exceptionalism that led you to misrepresent your local situation clouding your view.

    Again for the record, it was Varadkar in opposition who promised to do something about this:

    "For too long cronyism has been at the heart of appointments to State bodies.

    He said: “One needs only look at some of the plum appointments over the last number of years to see a wealth of unqualified candidates appointed to State boards and public bodies.”

    Ironic that his government nearly came unstuck because of a crony appointment.

    BTW had Donnelly done as you claimed, it would have been wrong and rightly open to criticism.

    That you had to gild the lily shows how inconsistent and exceptionalist you are though.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Surely the purpose of a leader is to improve their electoral performance? If any other leader decreases the actual votes a party gets they would be deemed failures.

    You don't believe the length of time the party has been in government qualifies this judgement at all? Did John Major 'fail' as Tory leader in 1992 because the party won fewer seats under his leadership than they had under Thatcher?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I don't know anything much about Major.
    I am judging FG leadership on a FG thread.
    Varadkar failed to increase FG electoral support and threw in the towel mid term.
    Harris IMO has the potential to fail better than him primarily because he is a show pony and is presiding over ( successfully for now) runaway finances as they buy votes, a housing crisis that is stubbornly remaining and has managed to divert blame for the mess that immigration has become.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    I don't think there is a leasehold aspect to the SF plan

    Building houses for the private market on land, not to be owned by the purchaser.

    What do you call that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Generally speaking lower prices winds up costing less in the long run for the property owners, not sure how you'd think otherwise

    Remains to be seen given the resale value of said property is likely to be dire given that the people who can buy the property will be much reduced.

    All in all, it seems to be a mess.

    Either build social and affordable housing and have the state manage it, or incentivise FTB's.

    The SF plan seems to be a hybrid of both, with none of the advantages, of either.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,103 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I call it nonsense. When Lynn Boylan was asked on NT yesterday if they had engaged the banks to see if they would even give mortgages for this type of property, she diverted and refused to answer the question.

    Typical SF bluster as usual. Nonsense, uncosted, socialist bluster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    FG, the subject of this thread, vote declined by over 2% in the latest local elections. 25.26% to 23% losing 10 seats



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,103 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Oh and they (SF) want to cancel the help to buy scheme too. This is why there is a decline in SF, not FG, and the electorate are set to return the current government again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The closest thing to a general election is a local election. No opinion poll comes close.

    FG went from 20.9% in GE 2020 to 23% in LE 2024

    SF went from 24.5% in GE 2020 to 11.8% in LE 2024

    One party is in decline, the other is not.

    This thread should be retitled as "The resurgence of FG".

    Unless, of course, you remain of the view that SF will definitely go into government as the leading party after the next election?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    FG are on the verge of being in power for a record-breaking 4th Term.

    Only Dev has done that before.


    Meanwhile, SF has blown a 15% poll lead to end up being 3rd in a 2-horse race, without ever sniffing at power.

    Without a doubt one of the biggest fuckups in Irish Political history.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    Carefull now lads,you can't be talking SF in the Fine Gael is falling thread 🤣🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The reason Local Elections are different to GE's is eloquently stated by the poster who wrote this - guess who wrote this when it suited him to write it?

    I am happy to vote for councillors in local elections who have a good record on issues like that. However, when voting for general elections, we are voting for legislators and Ministers, that is a completely different skillset.


    EU elections, Local elections and GE's are different entities as you eloquently outlined above.
    FG's vote declined in the latest Local Election.
    Quite simply we won't know if their vote has declined until an actual GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    These days the purchaser would buy the land as well as the house

    Yeah but GE2020 was a General Election, not a local one. It's not quite comparing apples with oranges but there is important differences between the 2 types of election as I'm sure you know

    Only applies if there are stipulations that the house has to remain available just to affordable purchasers after the first buyers sell up. Also only applies if the first buyers sell-up before they pay off the mortgage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,419 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    And still remain well below the level they were at when MLMD took over the leadership.

    15.2% of the vote in 2014 in Adams' last locals; down to 9.5% in 2019 and 11.8% in 2024 under MLMD



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭pureza


    SF's vote will rise and rise in the polls and the eventual Genersl election after that stellar launch on housing by O'Broin this morning.

    In 2 to 3 months running up to an election,government party outcomes move downwards as people home in on the excellent alternative.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Compared to LE2019 FF down 3% to 31 seats (29% to 27%), SF up 21 or about 2.2%

    If that same swing gets replicated between GE2020 and GE2024 FFG would lose 7 seats while SF would gain 4. However you need to remember there will be 14 more seats available and all 12 green seats would probably be up for grabs so if SF play their cards right they will take power



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,038 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    SF wont be able to form a govt without FF. This has been highlighted for the past 12 months or so.

    FG are now the most popular party, so its very hard to see past an FFG govt being returned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    SF and FF are too different, an agreement between them would be akin to a coalition between the Tories and the (British) Labour. Not saying it's impossible but it's highly unlikely.

    All in all it depends on what way the electorate vote in the next GE. Mathematically if the left wing parties get 88 seats and SF is the largest left party they won't need any help from the civil war parties



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 320 ✭✭mehico


    Open to correction but I think SF were the most popular party at the last GE in terms of percentage of votes but it is hard to look past another FFG after the election at this point in time.

    What will be interesting to see is, if or how FF and FG try to differentiate their seperate party polices to the electorate during the election campaign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,621 ✭✭✭Augme


    The closest thing to a local election is a local election, the closest thing to European election, is a European election, the closest thing to a General Election is a General Election. FG have declined across all three elections.

    Local elections 2019 - 25.26%

    Local elections 2024 - 23%

    European elections 2019 - 29.3%

    European elections 2024 - 20.9%

    General election 2016 - 25.5%

    General election 2020 - 20.9%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    But…but a 4% increase in an opinion poll with a + or - 3% margin of error is a 'resurgence'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Keep believing all that SF spin if you wish. However, the trends are clear - FG has stopped the decline and is on the way back up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It will be show pony style shooting himself in the foot like this which will lead to Harris following Varadkar as a disastrous electoral millstone for FG. Just wanted to get a snarky nasty dig in and falls flat on his face.
    Complete lack of awareness about what the issues with the maternity hospital were.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The issue with the National Maternity Hospital was that SF complained that the owners of the land could influence the owners of the property which was built on the land, and could restrict the owners of the property from doing certain things because of this and the things that they could restrict stretched far far beyond the property itself (like not just the building, rooms, renovations etc) but into what the people in the property could do.

    If SF were right on the National Maternity Hospital, it would mean that the government, as the owners of the land could restrict the owners of the SF houses from watching any TV other than TG4 and listening to any music other than the Wolfe Tones, in accordance with SF ideology.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,530 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Keep up the hideous attempt to conflate, it's just embarassing and drawing attention to the fiasco FG helped create.

    You can be restricted from doing certain things even under the system of ownership we have now. You are presumably just trying to scaremonger with patently ridiculous scenarios.

    BTW People seem to be interested in choosing to listen to the WT's themselves if EP and concerts are anything to go by. The faux outrage about that from some quarters is seeking to 'restrict' or censor them.

    Foot in mouth again there with the snarky attempt.



This discussion has been closed.
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