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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,788 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    I very much doubt MLMD will go anywhere, plus I think SF will probably do alright when the election happens. definitely a more realistic support base now once the floaters have moved on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,115 ✭✭✭pureza


    SF will be re elected in the seats they won in 2020 and have a realistic possibility of going higher.

    Those not willing to vote FF or FG have no other home.

    SF's policies may be populist but they are more mainstream than ever,such that if they were in government,they wouldnt hurt the average voter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 532 ✭✭✭Dingaan




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭Hobby farmer


    I think you're right. From what I see it's a status for many people from working class backgrounds to be seen to supporting SF. Mostly because of the parties links to the IRA.

    I'd be willing to bet a handsome amount that if pressed a large cohort of there "support" haven't a clue what the party position is on any issue (bar immigration)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    No evidence that they'll poll or elect as many as in 2020. In fact any evidence is to the contrary (elections since then and polls) unless they turn the ship. If they were to stand at 2020 level, a SF candidate would be a shoe-in in every constituency.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,878 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,115 ✭✭✭pureza


    Voters can change in 2 months

    They changed rapid from nov 19 to february 2020

    Partisan Boards posters get carried away and forget these important details



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I did include "unless they can turn the ship". Whilst I would never be a SF supporter, I am also capable of objective analysis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭spillit67


    SF did not take the locals results seriously enough.

    They appear to think they failed because their communication failed. There has been a noticeable ramping up of their “comms” and trying to focus again on housing.

    IMO their downfall is traceable not only immigration but also thinking that the housing greatest hits will work. In truth 2020 was very unique. Housing supply was increasing by then but hadn’t hit the market yet. You basically had an entire generation sitting at home seething with their parents. Since mid 2020 there has been an explosion of those getting not just HTB but also first time buyers generally.

    I don’t think the government have “won” all of those who have gotten onto the ladder (it should be noted that both FG and FG would be shocked if you told them 15 years ago about their polling numbers today) but the anger gone down a notch, or at least is more understood. People see it is an increasing shitshow everywhere else in the West as well.

    SF keep playing the hits emphasising the homeless numbers but do people really care? Are they desensitised? Have migrants in tents changed perceptions of homelessness?

    The third really dangerous thing for SF imo is their €100,000 tax policy which hasn’t hit them yet. Cliff Taylor is really going on about it now and it is an open goal for their opponents. As a policy it is going to really hit them with middle earners and those who aspire to it once it gets out on the campaign. It’s also the kind of one that is really difficult for SF to roll back on as €100,000 is such a psychological barrier.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Will SF support or oppose the likely increase in Inheritance and Gift Tax thresholds for family members in the budget?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    O'Broins housing policy will be the final act of self destructionfor SF. So over-hyped, but built on sand. The electorate won't go for his half-baked leasehold model and he very quickly find himself on the defensive on the detail.

    Lynn Boylan was asked this morning if the banks will sanction lending for a house on a site you don't own and she ran a mile from the question. She has no clue on the proposal it seems.

    Damp Squib incoming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,770 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Good points. Also, they don't seem to have a unified message and appear to have two different competing wings within the party and the grassroots (this doesn't seem to be an issue for either FF or FG).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,465 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The word on the ground is that many of these TD's who were elected in 2020 have not impressed on the ground and have been nowhere to be seen for years. They were lucky to be elected at the time, when there was an anti-government shift to SF.

    It is expected that some of those will lose their seats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,465 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Lightning to strike twice? Unlikely.

    There was a set of specific events that culminated in SF being the surprise package in 2020.

    People are more aware of SF and MLMD now, and the wind has gone out of their sails.

    They would be very lucky to even match their 2020 result at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,094 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The rising trend for SF evidenced in the second half of 2019 accelerated towards the general election, driven mainly by Wolfe Tones-type nationalism (the pub kind). This time around if a trend accelerates for SF, it is downward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    The problem for us as a country is that you have just summed up the majority of our politicians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,301 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    tis actually common enough in politics around the world, poor choices, but sf are truly dreadful alright, so there may never be an alternative government in ireland, tis very likely we ll see many ffg governments to come…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The sort of housing policies being espoused by O'Broin this morning will go down well. That FG / FF haven't grasped this nettle and come up with comparable solutions reflects very poorly on them. Very poorly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,301 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ffg will be just fine for the election, no real fear from sf, i.e. the best way forward for ireland, for change to occur, is to stay the same, maybe that should be ffg's slogan!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    There is a serious work ethic problem for this govt.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,301 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    government is doing just fine, doing what it truly was designed to do, i.e. to protect those that benefit from the accumulation of wealth, tis all good!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,094 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That was an angle I hadn't considered on the leasehold model, but it is an interesting one. The problem for the banks is that if they were to foreclose on a default, who could they sell the house to? Who will then take a risk on buying one?

    On the compulsory purchase issue, it is actually good that some party is willing to look at the 1970s Kenny Report on Land and introduce existing use CPOs. However, successive Attorney Generals have warned that such a measure may be unconstitutional. I would expect that any legislation will be challenged by landowners. If you are in any way worried that the State might in future CPO any land or house you own (for future bus or cycle measures, for new roads, for bypasses etc.), you are now extremely unlikely to vote for SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,094 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Have had a quick read of O'Broin's Leaving Cert project, not good enough for a pass mark, falls well short in thinking through implications and weaknesses, understates the cost, understates the obstacles, and overambitious in timing and execution. Could have scraped a pass mark only for the padding, filling out pages and pages with images, Irish translations and executive summaries to try and claim a 20-page project is a 100-page policy, I don't accept that from any student.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭spillit67


    We’ve also been taught by the locals that running two candidates will be a big risk for SF in many areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭spillit67




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,301 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    absolutely, cause rapidly rising rents is really good for the ecnomoy, and of course also good for society, it all trickles down, tis all good….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭spillit67


    O’Broin has spent the guts of a decade listening to lovely sounding solutions rather than thinking them through.

    I really suspect with this policy announcement that they don’t want in power this time. The rent freeze alone will kill funding for new housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,301 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and ffg's models has been lets doing everything we can to keep the recovery(of the value of assets(property)) going, shur tis doing just grand lads, isnt it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Who are earth would build if they are told they cannot increase rents?

    In three years time it would be the exact same as Rent Pressure Zones and the eviction ban, hugely problematic to roll back.

    The Sinn Féin “plan” mostly just added 10,000 houses to what everyone else is planning. They are still hugely reliant on private construction, particularly those looking to rent out properties.

    It is an insane idea that will kill their housing proposals on arrival.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Listen I know you’ve been sent out to bat but you need to be better than just the same old tired cliches. The sad thing is that the more you mention “FFG” the more likely it is that they won’t leave power as you are just making them more transfer friendly.

    Thinking you can freeze rents and incentivise people to investment capital is hilarious. Nobody will do this.



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