The decline of FG?

If you do reply, try to do so without making a jusgement on the voters and just interpret the 2 data points.

Challenge accepted. So the 2 points you make are both true and relevant but I would add to them that

70% of adults are home owners - a figure which was surely higher than 70% in 2020?

A majority of them are probably quite happy that their house prices are rising - also something that was happening in the lead up to the 2020 election, albeit at a smaller scale…

So there were more homeowners in 2020 and prices were rising at the time but SF had a very successful election. So while both points are certainly true I don't think either of them are the reason for FFG's recent success.

Now I admit I also can't fully explain their recent success in the polls, I suspect it has more to do with the recent local elections and FFG doing a very good job at moving trees, filling in potholes, helping communities, objecting to planning permissions, GAAGo etc etc. But that is only a hunch

I would question as well, is there really a belief among FFG voters that SF in power will reduce house prices and ownership significantly?

Does Sinn Féin announce inner Party strategy?!

Although come to think of it, sometimes they do, and are left looking like eejits!

Home ownership was slightly lower in 2020 at 69%. Grew 1.1% by the end of 2022.

Not disputing your figures, genuinely though I thought home ownership was higher in 2020 than it is now. Notable that you do use a 2022 statistic mind, I presume that's because that's the latest available data. In any case the change was minimal so it still doesn't explain why support would be higher or lower 5 years on

But thats indicative of not voting for a party, ironically; not believing they will be able to do what they say they will do.

There's nothing ironic about it, in fact that's exactly why so many don't vote FFG. They don't believe they will be able to fulfill their promises. And in fairness they have history in this sense

Yep, 2022 was the latest data i could find.

Know what you mean about FFG not fulfilling their promises in full, but as they are still the leading first preference party, the majority must still have more faith in them then they do in SF or FF.

It comes down to the same point in the end. Not who is going to do a perfect job (nobody is, we all know that) but who is going to do the best job.

It seems the electorate still think FFG is the best way forward, overall.

Well FG have the Trinity Seanad seats nailed down anyway

There's a lot of these distraction news stories going around at the moment... I wonder is it just silly season or is there a new bad story about to break for FFG?

Apparently they rotate round Malahide, Clontarf, Stormont and Bready.

Thankfully

You could reasonably assume that whatever date they announce for the election will come true mind. Be nice if they had it on the same date as the Locals and Euros were.

Yep, and I dont believe FG have all their candidate places filled yet, so perhaps more time needed to prepare the runners and riders.

I can give you two reasons it would be a very bad idea.

Firstly, it would be an even greater mess in terms of the count length - even splitting the ballots would take twice as long; and tallying would fall to bits. Every party wants the tally data.

Secondly, the same people can and do run in all three elections. There are days where some candidates would probably win all three (Ciaran Cuffe got elected to both DCC and Europe on the same day in 2019 and would probably have won a Dáil seat too then or 2020 if he'd run; a Green candidate topped the poll in his old constituency).

This would cause a mix of immediate by-elections, council co-optees for the entire term (already happened with Paddy Holohan winning two seats on the same council; and Sharon Keoghan in 2019 - but it would become extremely common) and MEP replacement lists for the entire term - there are always people who want Europe over the Dáil and vice versa.

With regard to the longer count length I'd argue it's a symbol of democracy in action and not really an issue at all. If candidates want to run in 3 elections that's their choice, the govt could always legislate to ban the practice as it's a silly one anyway

There is also a few upsides that you may not have considered

Filling the Dail, Seanad, Council and European seats in one day creates a more unified party distribution across the political spectrum.

There would also be fewer costs for the exchequer and the environment, schools would be closed less often and politicians wouldn't need to be calling to our doors looking for local or European seats just to do the exact same thing in a few months time

As an example, under the current schedule, SF could rise to power in a few months time in the Dail while we know the Seanad will likely be filled with the civil war party candidates because of how the local elections went for them

I don't consider your interlinked first and third points to be upsides.

There is also the massive problem that Governments fall, with no potential replacement available without a new election. Fixed terms don't work in our system.

Would you have been happy with FF hanging on til June 2012 (the 5 year anniversary of the previous term), unable to actually pass any legislation; just because the election date was fixed? Or would you have suggested that the incoming Government from the Feb 2011 election only got 16 months, to return to a cycle?

I was specifically working on the basis of this year where they could have had the GE at the same time as the LE, Since we're going to the polls anyway in the next few weeks again

Legally speaking the Seanad need to also pass legislation before it becomes law. It would help if there was a govt majority there

Suggesting the longer count length being a symbol of democracy in action is seriously clutching at straws. While the length of the count might not really be an issue, there certainly isn't any benefit in extending the count to include three elections. Cutting short a relatively popular government (likely to be returned anyway) just to align with the EU election date would be extremely undemocratic. The negatives for democracy would far outweigh the positives.

An actual symbol of democracy in action would be separate election days with focused campaigns. The lines between local issues and national issues and EU level issues are already quite blurred in this country, horsing all together on one election day would further blur it. It would be impossible to run three dedicated campaigns focusing on the relevant issues at each level simultaneously. There wouldn't be time for meaningful debates at each level and the public would zone out from all the noise.

And now that you are saying you were talking specifically about this year, the advantages you put forward of "fewer costs for the exchequer and the environment, schools would be closed less often" is negligible. That one school day saved is unlikely to be replicated again for the remainder of the school lives of current school children. The financial and environmental savings would be barely above 0.

Middle of a housing crisis but let's give the developers another 12 months. Political open-goal here

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0820/1465844-ireland-politics/