The decline of SF?

Compared to 20 years ago, the average shinner cumann meeting is a lot more squeezed middle than unemployed. The 'well healed' dont tend to share who they vote for, so Im not sure if the stereotypes you are clinging to there are of any value.

MEP’s ????

Squeezed middle aren't well off, so we are probably talking about two different groups there.

The well off who own property and pay the most income tax arent generally going to vote for their house price to fall and their incomes to be taxed even more.

The squeezed middle will of course look for an alternative, i agree. But I think more and more people have realised that SF dont offer costed alternatives for that cohort anyway.

In any case, overall first preference voting support for SF has dropped from 24.5% in 2020 to 21% today & they have now been overtaken as first choice by FG on 23%.

Harris still seems keen to hold the GE next year, but there must be a strong case for an October election, post budget, while the parties in government are doing well in terms of support.

Remains to be seen.

Given the local results before the GE I will let you bask in complacency and maintain my point. A lot can change and very quickly too. Either way.

Squeezed middle are most of us.

A lot of people in my wider family would not vote for Sinn Fein …. it is all for the same reason …. their ties to the IRA and association in their mind to the Northern Ireland violence …. the REALITY is SF are no longer even close to that era …. MLMcD and others were not even near any of that …. SF has evolved just like FF and FG once did too ….

As it stands … and let's hope it remains so … most Irish want to vote for moderate parties …. thankfully the Trumpist copycats did v badly in the 2024 elections …. however issues that irk the people do need to be addressed …. housing etc …. on one hand and misinfo and social media inspired thuggery needs to be addressed on the other hand ….

SF, FF and FG will for the foreseeable get about a third each give or take of the vote …. FF and FG are centre right and more natural partners …. the rise of another centre left party or the a rise in fortune for the other major centre left party Labour is needed for SF to form a govt …. that makes it more likely that FF and FG will form the next govt ….

Your two gotcha's are not members of SF. One never was and the other was drummed out of the party. That you think this hasn't happened in other parties (or maybe you are willfully ignoring it) is gas.
Party members will say and do the wrong thing and no longer have the whip or support of the party right across politics.
And don't get me started on attempts to influence online. There was never any proof that SF were controlling 'an online army' their attempt to get people to advocate for the party online was open, and you needed to join the party to do it, they weren't sneaky and looking for 'anonymous accounts' to do it, but actual supporters. Given what it was turned into by fearful conspiracy theories (who willfully and hypocritically also ignored the more sinister advocate of 'anonymous accounts) they might re-consider making that call again.

The 'support' that is now looking elsewhere because SF won't support them?
Where has it gone? Oh look FF and FG support has increased in the same time frame.
SF don't want that support as it is not chasing it.

Several of the people above apologised for their tweets/actions like members of all parties have had to do. That's a good thing in my book, are you being selective at all in the apologies you accept and the ones you don't? You also should look into the meaning of 'plenty'.

Believe what you want. That SF policy and leadership do not re-enforce any of this points to the fact that you are perhaps the purveyor of a conspiracy theory yourself. One man's sincerely held beliefs are another's conspiracy theory and all that.
Of course you forget FG endorsement and support for Verona Murphy's toxic views before they too moved away from them officially. Similarly their incubation of ultra conservative people like Lucinda Creighton and her Renua colleagues before parting ways with them.

As I say, you can myopically hold a view and cherrypick, personally I think all parties have rogue members and people who don't tow the party line, what the leadership and policy say is the important thing.

The problem is that SF continue to display a lack of leadership on these issues. Only yesterday, senior party spokespersons were refusing to say that they supported the housing of immigrants in Thornton Hall. The crisis of leadership in SF is real, unfortunately for them, it is only one of the major problems. Without decent leadership at the top, they won't be able to address the hordes of conspiracy theorists in their ranks.

Even their supporters on here dream up crazy CTs about the government.

Yes, and it went on far longer than 2018. On Reddit they made r/Ireland unusable, any discussion of SF whatsoever would be downvoted into oblivion within minutes if it was deemed negative. This was going on up until last year, it seems to have eased off this year. I guess it wasn't a good look for the party when some absolute apes were throwing their weight around in discussions most of whom had some romanticised notion of the troubles and were born in the noughties.

They are still at it, voting for Paddy Holohan for Deputy Mayor of South Dublin, sitting on the ditch over the use of Thornton Hall until they see which way the wind is blowing, the same in Dundrum, where they are using "consultation" as the reason to ensure that refugees are not looked after.

It will be interesting to see the next opinion poll.