Summer 2024 - General Discussion

A significant difference from previous past poor summers in recent memory to 2024 is that this summer has primarily been +NAO driven since mid-June. Recent days have seen it go more negative though. This has meant that whilst there has been no Greenland blocking to drive the jet stream a long way southward, the wind direction has primarily been northwesterly. It's kind of similar to how winters like 2014-15 and 2017-18 had a very +NAO index but were northwesterly and not all that mild, even below average in some cases. If there was ever any confirmation needed, +NAO is not a guarantee to getting a good summer in Ireland. 1972, which included the coldest June on record for many, was also +NAO.

After June, summer 2023 was dominated by a -NAO regime and a southerly tracking jet stream. This brought the Atlantic onslaught at full speed to Ireland with all of the weather fronts combined with well above average sea surface temperatures was a recipe for rain, rain, rain. Another effect of it was how Iceland had its sunniest July on record where the high pressure system was much for the month whilst we were getting deluge after deluge.

Several summers from the infamous 2007-12 period were identical to that outlined for 2023 above - most notably 2007, 2008 and 2012. 2009 and 2010 were mixed. August 2009 had an atmospheric river pattern with moisture fed southwesterly winds (leading to a stark west-east split where parts of the east had a drier than average month but it was exceptionally wet in the west) whilst July 2009 was very convective with low pressure consistently over the country. July 2010 was very unsettled whilst June 2010 was warm and dry. August 2010 was unusual with a persistent arctic maritime regime where Ireland was often sunny and dry with suppressed temperatures whilst England & Wales had one of their cloudiest Augusts on record and a fair amount of rain. 2011 was the coldest summer of the century so far and by no means was it settled but much of its rain tended to come in small amounts.

Look at the difference in height anomalies over Greenland between 2007-12 + 2023 (first chart) & 2024 (second chart) to date. Very different.

Quite windy and some big heavy showers, last one almost haily, in West Mayo. Not sure of the temp but it feels very cool, jacket and hat needed working outside. We haven't had 2 good days in a row since the end of May.

Windy, drizzly, cool in Celbridge. This rain was not expected! The wind is really starting to irritate me, never seems to stop.