Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There are edge cases. There are people whose family have been farming land for generations who don't want to be forced off it. Yes, they can apply to have it dezoned, but in some cases there would be genuine fears that their now agricultural land would then be CPO'd at that value to provide, for example, green space for the local population because the Council allowed the developer to build without providing it.

You don't think that could ever happen ………… Dublin City Council tried to CPO 2 acres a stone's throw from St Stephen's Green back around the height of the Celtic Tiger madness after the then owner refused an offer of 100k for it. In the end up it turned out to be moot as the crash came before the issue was resolved and it was eventually bought for about 140k from receivers after the crash and donated to them.

There was no suggestion that a speculator could buy up land, sit on it, and avoid the levy by renting out under a peppercorn rent to a fella with a horse for rough grazing.

Did the same. Mind you our bungalow doer upper cost over 700k in North Wicklow.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/homes-in-at-least-16-counties-affected-by-defective-concrete-as-concerns-raised-over-eu-safety-standard/a1836332722.html

one has to wonder are irish house prices now simply over valued ... there looks like there is going to he a serious amount of issues found over the next few years with the properties we have thrown up over the last 20 years or so

Buy a house that was built before we became a "knowledge economy"

Can't beat the regulation of time and a period when you next job depended on the quality of your last

Well theres a doer upper you can work on while you are in it and there is one that you cant move into. I wouldnt even bid on the latter. But ive seen lots of people now buy perfectly liveable houses and have the whole place gutted and practically rebuilt before move in. Im sure the builders love them, but those kinds of places are not for me tbh.

I would posit that that is more a reflection of the friends you keep rather than general society. there would have always been people like that in any period, and there always will be. They may just have come from money etc.

Well if there appears to be a common thread of repulsion at you buying a particular type of property, then that correlation is likely due to the types of people you hang around with rather than being a reflection of broader society. Because most people frankly wouldn't care one way or the other.

Davy Stockbrokers contesting that we need 85k new homes each year, between now and 2030.

Interesting that the National Planning Framework had planned for a State population of 5.36 million by 2030.

We have likley reached that figure already.

Will the 85k new homes per annum target be adopted by the State? 50k appears to be the quoted target figure.

As per article, most of the homes coming to market are not available to buy. The article says only 33% of new builds are available to buy privately, nationally.

I would be very confident that the percentage is much lower in Dublin.

Likley =<10%, maybe up to 15% in some areas.

Therefore, as far as purchase prices go, the vast majority of new builds may as well not exist because there is next to no supply coming to the purchase market - hence we will continue to see house price inflation; when viewed in context with the huge spending and savings power of the top 20% of the (ever growing) population.

10s of thousands of wealthy people in the GDA especially, competing for limited housing resources = house prices, especially in the good and average areas of the capital, will keep on rising.

Definitely concerning to see prices reaccelerating. Hopefully a blip.

However, ‘what goes up…’ is a very bad rule to follow for nominal prices…of anything. Take a look at 100+ years of global property and equity prices! They rarely come down (far or for long anyway!)

85k houses would be a truly astronomical number for a county like Ireland to build. 6 times the EU average. There is absolutely no way it’s adopted as a target.

Two parts to this:

1. Davy do little to back up their figures. They have assumed a deficit. Assumed a future population growth and decided deficit should be fixed by arbitrary 2030. All of those assumptions are debatable. Nice headline though

2. Even if Davy were right. Targets should be stretching, but realistic. Looking at the data shows, despite most countries having a housing shortage. Most build in and around the same amount - increasing housing supply is hard. It’s not like making face masks for COVID. One country is doing great and managing to 2x the EU average - Ireland. Expecting to 6x would be an unbelievable statistical outlier.

50k is a ambitious target that progress is being made towards at good pace (6-10% growth year on year, faster than anywhere else). Aiming for 200% growth in short order is silly.

If we somehow did get to 85k per annum. We’d then have to almost halve output in a few years to avoid another 2009 catastrophe as it would be utterly unsustainable. A government target to triple, then halve housing output in less than a decade would be very foolish.

First part.

Where did Davy say this target should remain fixed forever of course they should be planned ahead

This is you need social housing, you plan with private companies entirely in control of the market

2007 has no bearing on 2024, you know this

They should have kept building, where is was needed

There is a brewing rent and housing crisis across europe and the us, so the average is way too low

50k is accepted as a status quo number if there wasnt a backlog, just to keep up with growth

It will take a decade to clear this backlog, if they go over this number, if they dont it wont fix it

Is this you with the vacant property nonsense

This is odd, NAMA sold 100's of apartments in this location in 2016 for just over 100k a piece 1, 2 and 3 beds. I recall they said they were inappropriate for social housing.

These may well have been grant aided up to 120k per unit as part of the scheme they were constructed