Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

…for those not wanting indefinite ffg or fgff lead governments, theyll have to put sf somewhere on their ballots, wont happen though, so….

SF will eventually get into power, we still have a health and housing crisis, we now also have a crisis in our tourism industry.

Some party needs to come up with smart proposals to alleviate all these. If the party that does that is SF they'll storm to power at the next GE

8.7% of local elections vote v SF 11.7%

If they merged it would definitely take a portion of the protest vote away from SF.

I agree they wouldn’t take on FF/FG but could easily form a government with them and influence change something that SF are unlikely to do because FF nor FG will go into government with them. It’s another dynamic that we could see that reduce SF votes just like the right immigration candidates did this time around.

the problem for SF after this elections is the voting blocks that were formed and few seems to be transferring to SF. FF and FG are probably looking at 40%+ between them if they go above 45% they will be withing striking distance of an overall majority. They transferred strongly to each other something SF supporters on this forum denied would happen a year ago. 40% with a solid transfer will mean they will be very near 80 seats. Labour, SD's and the Greens transferred to each other solidly at 10-12% vote share they sould hit 15+ seats and looking at transfers they will recieve prefence from FF&FG when they have no other canditate to vote for over SF and some indepents. Independents @20+% would be in the 25-35 seat bracket. Half of these are from the FF/FG gene pool.

SF could hit 20% or even slightly more but only PBPS give them a preference on transfers. if they only get 15% you are looking at seats in the 20 bracket, @20% maybe 30. everything can and will change between now and the autumn. but the dail will be going into recess in a few weeks until ealy September. it will be hard for SF to change momentum, not impossible but hard. house building is ramping up and there will be tax changes,regularisation of the one off SW payments.

SF need to get back into the high 20%'s to have a chance of being in government and hope its FG collapse not FF. I think they will struggle to do that.

why vote for a party that you are more or less guaranteed wouldn’t be able to form a government? People aren’t stupid (despite what Mary Lou thinks and lets slip) so are more likely to vote elsewhere with their protest vote. That’s the point I’m making.

As it stands it looks like FF/FG will remain in power along with a small party + independents. Houses are being built, outrage has moved onto people playing the Direct provision system and SF have lost their USP so unlikely to get populist/protest vote as things stand. People are sick off them talking about a result from 4 years ago so without some change in direction it is an uphill battle and even at that they have probably left it to late.

why vote for a party that you are more or less guaranteed wouldn’t be able to form a government? 

I'm sure there is a cohort of diehard FF and FG supporters who would love it if any serious opposition just crawled away and allowed them to continue use and abuse the smaller (and so far willing) parties in their coalitions.
Thankfully the ambition of some opposition parties stretches a bit further than having to make the best of a decimation after an election.

Labour and Social Democrats are on the way up, Sinn Fein are on the way down.

The electorate have begun to realise that they are serious politicians while Sinn Fein are not.

Of the current Labour TDs, only Brendan Howlin, who is retiring at the next general election, has held a full Ministry. So what rubbish are you posting about the "old guard"?

Progressive voters don't vote for Sinn Fein, of that I am certain. Until Sinn Fein get rid of the whiff of the "old guard" who still control the party from Belfast, they won't attract progressive voters, and even then, until they dial down the ethno-nationalist rhetoric, they still won't attract them.

So Labour and the Social Democrats ran 51 candidates between them in 2020 and that is nowhere near enough for most people to consider themselves serious parties even combined.

Sinn Fein ran 42 candidates in that election. I suppose that means we should treat them less seriously than a combined Labour/SD?

Clueless is only the start of it.

Look at what the Greens have achieved over the lifetime of this government - Climate Action Act, public transport investment in Dart Plus, BusConnects etc., ahead of the game in retrofitting etc. Those are the raison d'etre of the Green Party movement.

Imagine if SF had been able to make even 1% of that progress on their main issue - a united Ireland - wouldn't that have been worth it just to become a mudguard? However, SF and their supporters are not really interested in achieving change, they are after power for the sake of power.

To be fair,I don't think he has the heart to go on

Greens aren't like any other party in the sense that,they will impliment unpopular things when in government and if they get back in,its a bonus

They run on a model of green wave,green bust,green wave again

Yep.
11.4% in 2019 EUs to 5.4% in the latest one…very poor performance.

greens movements are fcuked alright, so that means your kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews are to, shur no harm, we ll be long gone by the time the real sh1t hits the fan…..