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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,118 ✭✭✭pureza


    I don't think theres much delusion

    My fingers personally are crossed for Funchion down south btw to pip the gomáile Wallace,she should fo it hopefully?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Looking at the Euro election numbers and what you can see is that both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail collectively between their candidates had comfortably more than a full quota of 1st preferences in each of the 3 Constituencies whereas SF at best had about 60% of 1st Preferences.

    That suggests that SF are far more reliant on external transfers to get elected and given the increasingly fragmented environment with more and more Independents and smaller parties , that is a big big problem for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I think your figures are off, 60% of 1st Preferences would be enough to get 2-3 over the line in each constituency



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    60% of a quota , not of the total..

    eg.. In MNW , SF got ~75k of 1st Preferences with a quota of 113k whereas FF got ~150k and FG got about 145k

    Overall SF got about 10% of 1st preferences



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There are a lot of votes to transfer down in the South. Looking at Doolan's vote, it only had 63% transfer to Gildernew. That doesn't bode well for Funchion. Could be some twists and turns yet.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If a leader achieved that in a GE, yes, definitely time to consider their position.
    In an EU election where they are in with a shot of increasing their MEPs.
    Premature.
    In an LE where less than half the electorate voted and they actually increased their vote from last time?

    Again premature.

    As MLMD said, a good leader does not abandon when the going gets tough or they have a bad day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    How are things, Nero?

    Let's look at a few things closely. When Sinn Fein were at 37% in the polls, there was cheerleading on here about how they were going to win the next election, how MM would be MLMD's lapdog, and if he wasn't, they would get someone else from FF to do the job. You were openly saying all this. You also claimed the Greens were dead and buried etc.

    Last month, Sinn Fein dropped to 22% in the polls, level with FG and your tune changed dramatically, suddenly, the only real test was on June 7th when the electorate went to the polls, Sinn Fein would win the day.

    Now, in the midst of the PTSD and anguish from dropping to 11% in the polls, the tune has changed once again. Now, it is only general elections that matter, that small little elections like the European Parliament and the county councils don't matter.

    Well, I have news for you, nobody believes your schtick anymore. The Emperor has no clothes.

    MLMD was on the news the other day, calling for "change" again. Change to what? Nobody has the answer to that question. 300k houses for immigrants while the rest of the country suffers from negative equity?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    MLMD will be summoned to Belfast for a post-election briefing. Will she make it back home?

    Remember both the PSNI and the Garda Commissioner have said that the Army Council are active in politics controlling Sinn Fein.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    You are cribbing about, to quote your own words, "an LE where less than half the electorate voted", but whenever the result goes against you, you are complaining, no matter what size the voter turnout.

    In the 1973 Referendum in N.I. on the question if people there wanted to join a U.I. or stay in the UK, everyone over 18 was entitled to vote.  On a voter turnout of 58.7 percent, 98.9 percent voted to remain in the U K. You still complained and not only that but said there was no alternative to bombing the place to ruins and killing people in order to put pressure on the British for a U.I., So even if voter turnout in the L.E. last Friday was 58.7 percent you would still be complaining.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    A lot of so-called leaders in the civil war parties do run away when the going gets tough, Biffo, Bertie, Enda, Mickey Noonan, even across the water Farrage and Cameron all come to mind, but it doesn't mean it's the correct (or indeed the incorrect) thing to do.

    I think most right minded people would prefer to see her stay on as leader and try rebuild the vote. after all, a strong leader stays with the party during good times and bad

    As we have said before also they will increase the number of seats at local level, the only of the 3 big parties to do so, and are on track to do so at European Level also



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Do you have proof of these claims? Or are you just slinging mud hoping it will stick?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    But was it not them that told MLMD what to say and do in the first place?

    Confused I am.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    was cheerleading on here about how they were going to win the next election, how MM would be MLMD's lapdog, and if he wasn't, they would get someone else from FF to do the job.

    Not from me. Address your post to someone who did that.

    I still think MM will not serve as leader for another term.
    I still think the Greens will be decimated at the GE, I don't think they'll be wiped out.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    No trying to be awkward , but what evidence is there that MLMcD is a "strong leader" though?

    What can she do to change the public perception of her and the party in at most 8/9 months and more likely 4/5 before a General Election?

    The Government can point to an improving economic situation with inflation continuing to drop and Interest rates on the way down , they'll have a budget to sweeten the pot and given the impending change of Government in the UK they'll likely have an improving Immigration picture as well.

    So , what are the options for SF in the coming months to provide a compelling alternative that is different to what they have already offered that thus far hasn't really resonated?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    It is some come-down. From flying to the States three times in the space of a few months this Spring (nobody saw her in economy class, though she could have been?) to been almost certainly summoned to Belfast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    You have posted several times about what class she flew. Who cares.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Let clear it up, they had such a disaster in 2019 they have increased the seats, but are nowhere near the levels of seats they had in 2014

    If SF count that as a win, good for them.

    FG for instance are up on seats from 2014

    FF are down on seats from 2014

    Trying to spin this as a win for SF is deluded, but again proves that SF supports are well aware of how incompetent the party is from top to bottom.

    2014

    FF - 267

    FG – 235

    SF – 159

    GP – 12

    2019

    FF - 279

    FG – 255

    SF – 81

    GP – 49

    2024

    FF - 244

    FG – 242

    SF – 100

    GP – 23



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    No trying to be awkward , but what evidence is there that MLMcD is a "strong leader" though?

    I'm afraid I don't have her biography to hand

    What can she do to change the public perception of her and the party in at most 8/9 months and more likely 4/5 before a General Election?

    I imagine she'll be focusing on the current and whatever future crises this govt want to impose on the people and show how she will do things differently. Same as she did for GE 2020.

    The Government can point to an improving economic situation with inflation continuing to drop and Interest rates on the way down , they'll have a budget to sweeten the pot and given the impending change of Government in the UK they'll likely have an improving Immigration picture as well.

    Interest rates are set by the ECB so it isn't a govt policy, or even a political one. What have they done specifically to curb inflation? As far as I can tell they did nothing at all

    So , what are the options for for SF in the coming months to provide a compelling alternative that is different to what they have already offered that thus far hasn't really resonated?

    In 2020 they offered an alternative to policies that created the healthcare and housing crises, since both have gotten worse in the last 5 years I suspect it will be the same formula again, slightly tweaked, with hopefully better results



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Very nicely detailed and clear point

    It's a pity you can't be as clear and concise about that RTE interview. Or maybe you made it up, who knows?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I see the online army are out in force now.

    Very angry, leave you to it



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    This is what I love about left wing politics, no matter how far their backs are to the wall there is always facts backing up anything that is said by the left wing.

    That RTE interview never happened and MLMD never gave the electorate any particular label. If you can prove me wrong, please feel free to.

    I suspect like most on the right you will continue to spread baseless lies but them's the breaks I guess



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Is it too late for Michelle Gildernew to run up North and go in the Westminister elections, like, just to keep a salary and that for HQ, or should she do the decent thing and at least wait out the count? She has conceded she won't make it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,349 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Is there a change in SF leadership that will reverse the voting trend within the next 5 months, before the GE, though?

    Who could SF elect as leader that would appeal to FF and enable a SF/FF coalition?

    At the moment, I just dont see any way for SF to budge FG from FF's bedside.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Tough to lose the seat if it happens but cushioned by the fact they got 75,000 FP votes between the two.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Francie, that's not good. Was the total count 700k? or thereabouts, so just over 10% vote share. That's not gonna cut it in a GE



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I'm on record as saying/thinking the internal FF bust up which I think is still on the cards will be the deciding factor.
    If the J. O'Callaghan wing gets control, there will be much gnashing of teeth.

    If SF truly are non runners in GE terms that pressure will dissipate for this GE election cycle. But a day of reckoning over FF's continued decline because of their FG cozying, is coming IMO. If the Martin wing (who couldn't care less for policy direction) win, the tacit merger of FF and FG will continue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Lynn Boylan safe according to Gavan Reilly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,766 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Try 2 mins 30 secs in

    https://www.rte.ie/player/series/rt%C3%A9-news-nine-o-clock/SI0000001468?epguid=IH10002383-24-0160



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,255 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So where does she blame the electorate?
    She says 'some people'.
    'Some people' like those on here who call SF incompetent while ignoring the fact the government are responsible for the mess in housing health and immigration.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,523 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Firstly, 2:30 is a report on the election, not an interview. What MLMD said in that piece was

    "It needs to be made clear to people we are not actually in govt, some people seem to think that SF need to be held accountable for the in-competencies of the government"

    A far cry from what cloclo was saying earlier



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