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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 11,028 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    It shows too that if you pull in any old passer by go stand for you you just end up with mediocrity. SF have a few competent looking people like Louise O’Reilly and Matt Carty but go beyond those and the quality falls off very quickly. FF & FG have a competent subs bench and that instilled more confidence in an electorate. A lot can happen over 5 years and you need good people in the wings who can step up. SF don’t Fahy have that luxury that I can see.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Doesn't that speak to the paucity of credible alternatives?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 11,028 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    I get that but who else can quickly fix that? I live in the area and that hospital is a shítshow. This is also a local election so won’t impact the hospital. However, assuming FF/FG/G are in opposition next term, I’m not sure you can turn arguing the Limerick hospital issue very quickly.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The parties of Government currently have 53% of the confirmed seats in the Local Election (442 out of 826)

    SF have just short of 11% , Lab/SD are just behind them (84 seats combined vs 90 for SF) , if they were to come to some agreement on transfers/candidate selection before the GE they could do quite a bit better than that 10/11% level.

    Hard to see how SF go from 10-12% to the necessary 35/40% of seats for them to be in realistic range of being in Government.

    The GE will now almost certainly be October/November, barring a dramatic change the current Government will likely be returned perhaps with a few Independents in tow (or maybe Independent Ireland as a block of 5/6 seats).

    That Dramatic change could happen of course, but the tail winds are with the Government with interest rates coming down and the change in UK Government meaning the Rwanda nonsense will be cancelled leading to a significant drop in the cross border numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I really don't see the point of having two small explicitly social democratic (note the lower case) parties.

    They should merge and call themselves, I don't know….the SDLP. 😀



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,513 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    All you need is one credible alternative

    I get that but who else can quickly fix that?

    I'm not interested in who can quickly fix it, I'm interested in who is willing to fix it, and I can name 3 parties off the top of my head who now feel they won't need to because they get a nice share of the votes anyway.

    I live in the area and that hospital is a shítshow. This is also a local election so won’t impact the hospital.

    The local candidates are representing FFG. If local FFG called for the hospital to be fixed the national govt would have to listen. Where's the motivation to do that now?

    However, assuming FF/FG/G are in opposition next term, I’m not sure you can turn arguing the Limerick hospital issue very quickly.

    The hospital has been decimated for years, it's gonna take years to fix, but it's getting worse, not better with FFG in power



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Agree on the merger but perhaps not the name 😉

    This GE might be a bit too soon for a full merger to happen, but a sensible agreement around transfers and candidate selection might be the interim step for now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Are you 100% sure that the issues with Limerick hospital are 100% political in nature and can only be fixed through the political system?

    This seems to completely let the people who have operational accountability for that hospital off the hook. Shouldn't they be under the microscope as to why they are performing so poorly when compared to their peers?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,513 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I think we are unlikely to have a GE before the budget is passed and the bulk of the subsequent measures felt in January. Harris could potentially call for a GE in July to avoid the winter blues and piggyback on the success of Fridays elections. Go to the people while they seem to be asleep at the wheel and all that… Most likely February 2025 I'd say though



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The problems around UHL aren't really solved in Limerick though - They are solved in Clare and Tipperary with the drive to restore Ennis/Nenagh hospitals.

    There is no "fix" for UHL that happens in Limerick unless they could magically double the size of the hospital overnight.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I opened a thread to ask the question - be interesting to see what the supporters of either have to say.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The problem with February is that the any by-elections caused by TD's winning MEP races (and there will be at least a few) have to happen before mid December.

    It doesn't make any sense to hold several by-elections in December and then try to run a GE in February.

    And that's before you get into all the generally accepted issues with a January/February Election.

    I think they'll have the budget a little early and then go for an early November GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    MLMD needs to resign as party leader and assuming her ego wont let her, she should be removed. This is if SF want any real chance at the GE.

    Unfortunately as other have mentioned, outside of a handful of some decent people the fall off is enormous.

    Why they are losing out to independents?… their last 4 years in opposition makes it glaring obvious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,513 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    The hospital is run by the HSE, the HSE is answerable to the govt. The govt have done nothing to alleviate pressure on the hospital. Remember this?

    image.png

    Agreed. But it is within the powers of the govt of the day, via the health minister, to do as you point out. But they won't be doing it now if they have support anyway. 2 people have died because of that same hospital recently from sepsis, and that's only the ones we heard about so far!

    The people of Limerick need to quickly look at taking out private health insurance or risk death by UHL



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I respectfully dis-agree and it is also short odds on a GE this year happening. No way are the government parties going to allow SF a chance to regain a foothold.

    Will be an October election IMO



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    It will be this year - no one is going to wait till march with the inevitable yearly trolley crisis still on going.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 11,028 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Agreed. I don’t think there’s any alternative. Giving SF 8-9 months to regroup doesn’t sound like it’s in the government parties interests. After tge budget when there’s that feel good factor now does seem like the way to go. I think if SF swept the boards at the week Ed bd we’d definitely be looking at the latest possible date for an election but not any more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,644 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    I think this thread title should be changed from "Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma" to "When will the higher command in Belfast replace Mary Lou" or something.

    When I think of her, I think of the 3 return trips (at least) she is know to have taken to America in the Spring - one a few weeks before Paddies Day, one a few weeks after that, and then one to Boston recently. Did anyone see her in economy class?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,513 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    You might be right but also remember they need the Greens to support the budget, the Greens did not do very well on Friday to put mildly, so they might be apprehensive about elections pre-2025

    Also while they could bring back the budget day and have everything legislated for before going to the polls, most of the actual effects of the budget won't kick in until January 1st. Agreed that there are winter blues to deal with which is not good for any candidate.

    Good point about the by-elections also, no point in by-elections in December and GE in March, one solution to that is they could legislate to have them as early as next month



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Did Mary Lou study maths at her €20k a year school? Ran too many candidates in the locals this time. Ran too few in the GE in 2020. I'd be looking for my money back.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,197 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think they lost out to independents because the immigration crisis was blown hugely out of proportion TBH. It was weaponised.
    As I said earlier, you could see people here (and more importantly elsewhere) salivating thinking the Shinners would turn hard right in response. I.E. they were weaponising the issue.

    As it turned out the hard right garnered very little and we have instead a rag tag group of independents who probably courted that vote.
    And look, nobody who steps up for the leadership of SF will be acceptable to the usual crew. How many times did Leo Varadkar fail at the ballot box for FG and we heard none of the clamour from these people for him to go. Be careful taking them as a coherent view on leadership.
    IMO MLMD will be given a run at the GE although there may be moves against her. Not seeing any evidence of it though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    What do you think their approach will be over the coming next few months?

    Will they continue to shoutdown the governmet on the usual topics? or take a more nuanced pragmatic approach on a plan to fix what is currently wrong?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,197 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Will they continue to shoutdown the government on the usual topics? 

    I disagree with the now tired trope about opposition shouting down the government.(it is how government supporters have always portrayed the opposition) Easy criticism IMO.

    But I think they will focus on the abiding and still present issues facing the country.

    I agree with Paschal Donohue this AM that LE's are a different ballgame with regard to 'national issues'.

    Eaten bread will soon be forgotten as it was in 2019. Voters are in a chaotic mood, all to play for still.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 11,028 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Being shouty isn’t a good look any more. It might have looked like proactive opposition for a while when they were on 36% but it started to get old really quick and the unfortunate thing is that being at 36% also caused a lot of focus on the party and their policies. As a potential senior government partner in waiting it’s to be expected. Now people realise the dots don’t really join up in their policies. At 12% and with shaky policies, shouting and roaring at the government across the Dail chamber doesn’t look great. Now they need to go away and put their heads together sbd come back with credible policies that have been properly researched. That won’t happen in time for the next GR however. There is also a degree of arrogance about some of the main personalities, Mary Lou and O’Broin in particular. They have some real homework to do now. The dog ate it won’t cut it with the electorate this time around.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I don't think they'll want to run any by-elections to be honest.

    They'd likely lose them which hits momentum - Putting all the focus on 2 or 3 by-elections where you have just removed your strong candidate would not be a winning strategy by the Government.

    No by-elections , early Budget , October/November Election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    But that's the thing though, it's not tired trope. SF were getting my vote(for the first time) up until i got pi!!ed off with them every single week shouting and hollering in the Dail without offering tangible solutions.

    I voted FF in EU and SD in LE only reason being the SD were the only one who bothered their bollox to knock on my door and tell me what they'd do in my locality.

    I, like the majority, have no party allegiance, and have the cop on to understand when i am being spoofed.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The problem for SF is that barring a United Ireland they have absolutely no consistency as regards policy.

    A UI is simply not a major priority for most people - It's an aspirational goal for a lot of people , but it's not the decisive reason for picking Party A over Party B when it comes to elections.

    They have bounced guard-rail to guard-rail over the last 5+ years trying to find the frankly non existent "sweet-spot" that keeps their traditional voters happy whilst winning them new support.

    They are very much the definition of the old saying "You can fool some of the people all of the time , all of the people some of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time".

    SF are currently in the process of exiting their "fooling all of the people some of the time" phase.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,197 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    For the record, I would be a natural supporter of SD's myself, but they offer no credible way to end the FF/FG hold on power, which is my goal.
    Rory Hearne got my no 1. in the EU but they don't stand candidates here in the LE and the GE. So not an option.

    IMO in terms of doing the duty of an opposition (of which performances in the Dáil chamber are only a part) SF did well holding Government to account across all the committees etc and in the Dáil as did other opposition parties. If you only look at leaders questions then you would be making a rash judgement IMO, all of them use those occasions to try score points and play to the gallery.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    Nothing to do with them rubbish in opposition? Or Mary Lou telling the country they would re run the referendum if we voted no?… i mean i could go on.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,761 ✭✭✭standardg60


    I started a thread on Leo fully a year before he resigned calling for him to go and he eventually did the right thing, and I was definitely a supporter.

    I don't suppose you'll be doing the same for ML even though she's clearly a liability at this stage?



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