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April 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

2»

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  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122075717#Comment_122075717

    Sorry didn't see post before starting contest, will keep idea for later contest.



  • #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks of April …

    IMT _ 9.14 (+0.6) .. fourth week 8.0 (1.3 below normal). could be 9.2 as a final value.

    MAX _20.1, appears to be set

    MIN _ -2.2, appears to be set

    PRC _ 122% of normal, just 48% of normal for the fourth week … guaranteed about 117% (only Shannon was a little below average April total, and as of today is level … further rainfalls will therefore add to guaranteed value to reach final value current estimate being 135% based on observed and expected amounts today and 30th April).

    SUN _ 98% of normal, 115% for the fourth week. Will probably finish around 95%.

    bonus was scored above in an earlier post. (59.8 Valentia)



  • #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Preliminary scoring for April 2024

    _ to be adjusted 1st-2nd May __

    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ BONUS ___ TOTAL

    M.T. Cranium_______ 16 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 02 ____ 47

    WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___19 _ 09 _ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 _77-1=76

    Tae laidir __________ 21 _ 17 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 66

    Jpmarn ____________23 _ 16 _ 06 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 ____ 68

    Appledrop __________23 _ 14 _ 14 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 73

    Gonzo _____________23 _ 11 _ 12 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 05 ____ 58

    Pauldry ____________24 _ 17 _ 12 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 82

    MrSkinner __________25 _ 09 _ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 68

    Dacogawa __________25 _ 19 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 74

    Cornerstonelad ______25 _ 18 _ 16 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 81

    Sunflower3 _________24 _ 11 _ 13 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 76

    Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ____ 68

    … Con Sensus _______23 _ 17 _ 17 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 88

    Dasa29 ____________23 _ 04 _ 18 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 72

    Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 23 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 06 _48-2=46

    john mac __________ 22 _ 00 _ 16 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 03 ____ 53

    200motels _________ 22 _ 14 _ 17 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 68

    Bsal ______________ 22 _ 06 _ 18 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 10 ____ 76

    Joe Public __________21 _ 08 _ 20 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 04 ____ 58

    Mr Stonewall _______ 21 _ 11 _ 20 _ 01 _ 08 ___ 04 ____ 65

    Rameire ___________20 _ 19 _ 08 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 12 ____ 81

    DOCARCH _________ 20 _ 10 _ 20 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 80

    sryanbruen ________ 20 _ 08 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 69

    Kindred Spirit ______ 19 _ 19 _ 13 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 10 ____ 83

    waterways _________17 _ 00 _ 18 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 04 ____ 49

    ….NormaL _________ 17 _ 06 _ 17 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 55

    =========================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Total prec 1-7, loc'n

    M.T. Cranium_______10.1 _ 23.8 _ -1.5 _ 158 _ 100 ___(2) 98.2 _Athenry

    WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___9.8 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 133 _ 100 ___(14) 68.0 _Roches Point

    Tae laidir __________ 9.6 _ 20.4 _ -0.3 _ 145 _ 108 ___(12) 71.0 _Valentia

    Jpmarn ____________9.4 _ 20.5 _ -0.8 _ 125 _ 105 ___(6) 85.0 _Knock

    Appledrop __________9.4 _ 19.5 _ -1.6 _ 167 _ 093 ___(15) 66.0 _Sherkin Island

    Gonzo _____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -1.4 _ 217 _ 082 ___(9) 78.0 _Dunsany

    Pauldry ____________9.3 _ 19.8 _ -1.4 _ 130 _ 099 ___(10) 77.0 _Valentia

    MrSkinner __________9.2 _ 21.2 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 100 ___(13) 70.0 _Valentia

    Dacogawa __________9.2 _ 20.2 _ -2.6 _ 202 _ 086 ___(11) 76.5 _Sherkin Island

    Cornerstonelad ______9.2 _ 19.9 _ -1.8 _ 155 _ 085 ___(8) 79.0 _Valentia

    Sunflower3 _________9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___(21) 52.0 _Johnstown castle

    Artane2002 ________ 9.0 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 185 _ 085 ___(17) 60.0 _Johnstown Castle

    … Con Sensus _______9.0 _ 19.8 _ -1.9 _ 140 _ 097 ___ 70.0

    Dasa29 ____________9.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___(22) 50.0 _Valentia

    Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 9.0 _ 17.0 __ 0.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___(7) 80.0 _Valentia

    john mac __________ 8.9 _ 22.9 _ -1.8 _ 104 _ 109 ___(1) 104.0 _Sherkin Island

    200motels _________ 8.9 _ 19.5 _ -1.9 _ 172 _ 091 ___(3) 98.0 _Sherkin Island

    Bsal ______________ 8.9 _ 18.7 _ -2.0 _ 150 _ 095 ___(18) 58.0_Oak Park

    Joe Public __________8.8 _ 21.3 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 120 ___(24) 29.0 _Roches Point

    Mr Stonewall _______ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -2.2 _ 092 _ 105 ___(5) 88.0 _Sherkin Island

    Rameire ___________8.7 _ 20.0 _ -1.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___(16) 65.0 _Valentia

    DOCARCH _________ 8.7 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 137 _ 088 ___(23) 42.0 _Valentia

    sryanbruen ________ 8.7 _ 18.9 _ -2.6 _ 160 _ 090 ___(19) 55.0 _Johnstown Castle

    Kindred Spirit ______ 8.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___(20) 54.0 _Valentia

    waterways _________8.4 _ 22.8 _ -2.0 _ 099 _ 109 ___(4) 95.0 _Sherkin Island

    ….NormaL _________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___(6) 85.0 _Mace head (31-03 12z GFS)





  • #55
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭John mac


    recon shannon had a good lot today some savage showers in limerick .



  • #56
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final values are 9.2 _ 20.1 _ -2.2 _ 139 PRC _ 95 SUN

    Only PRC required any editing in scoring estimates above.

    Will post updates soon (in scoring order).



  • #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final scoring for April 2024

    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS _ TOTAL

    … Con Sensus _______23 _ 17 _ 17 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 90

    Kindred Spirit _______19 _ 19 _ 13 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 10 ____ 85

    Cornerstonelad ______25 _ 18 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 83

    Rameire ___________ 20 _ 19 _ 08 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 12 ____ 83

    Pauldry ____________24 _ 17 _ 12 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 81

    DOCARCH __________20 _ 10 _ 20 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 80

    Bsal ______________ 22 _ 06 _ 18 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 10 ____ 77

    WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___19 _ 09 _ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 _76-1=75

    Appledrop __________23 _ 14 _ 14 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 75

    Sunflower3 _________24 _ 11 _ 13 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 75

    Dacogawa __________25 _ 19 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 74

    Dasa29 ____________23 _ 04 _ 18 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 71

    sryanbruen ________ 20 _ 08 _ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 70

    200motels _________ 22 _ 14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 69

    Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ____ 68

    Tae laidir __________ 21 _ 17 _ 01 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 67

    Jpmarn ____________23 _ 16 _ 06 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 03 ____ 66

    MrSkinner __________25 _ 09 _ 10 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 66

    Mr Stonewall _______ 21 _ 11 _ 20 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 04 ____ 64

    Gonzo _____________23 _ 11 _ 12 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 05 ____ 58

    Joe Public __________21 _ 08 _ 20 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 04 ____ 58

    ….NormaL _________ 17 _ 06 _ 17 _ 02 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 54

    john mac __________22 _ 00 _ 16 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 03 ____ 51

    M.T. Cranium_______ 16 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 02 ____ 49

    waterways _________17 _ 00 _ 18 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 04 ____ 48

    Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 23 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 06 _46-2=44

    =========================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Total prec 1-7, loc'n

    M.T. Cranium_______10.1 _ 23.8 _ -1.5 _ 158 _ 100 ___(2) 98.2 _Athenry

    WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___9.8 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 133 _ 100 ___(14) 68.0 _Roches Point

    Tae laidir __________ 9.6 _ 20.4 _ -0.3 _ 145 _ 108 ___(12) 71.0 _Valentia

    Jpmarn ____________9.4 _ 20.5 _ -0.8 _ 125 _ 105 ___(6) 85.0 _Knock

    Appledrop __________9.4 _ 19.5 _ -1.6 _ 167 _ 093 ___(15) 66.0 _Sherkin Island

    Gonzo _____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -1.4 _ 217 _ 082 ___(9) 78.0 _Dunsany

    Pauldry ____________9.3 _ 19.8 _ -1.4 _ 130 _ 099 ___(10) 77.0 _Valentia

    MrSkinner __________9.2 _ 21.2 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 100 ___(13) 70.0 _Valentia

    Dacogawa __________9.2 _ 20.2 _ -2.6 _ 202 _ 086 ___(11) 76.5 _Sherkin Island

    Cornerstonelad ______9.2 _ 19.9 _ -1.8 _ 155 _ 085 ___(8) 79.0 _Valentia

    Sunflower3 _________9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___(21) 52.0 _Johnstown castle

    Artane2002 ________ 9.0 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 185 _ 085 ___(17) 60.0 _Johnstown Castle

    … Con Sensus _______9.0 _ 19.8 _ -1.9 _ 140 _ 097 ___ 70.0

    Dasa29 ____________9.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___(22) 50.0 _Valentia

    Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 9.0 _ 17.0 __ 0.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___(7) 80.0 _Valentia

    john mac __________ 8.9 _ 22.9 _ -1.8 _ 104 _ 109 ___(1) 104.0 _Sherkin Island

    200motels _________ 8.9 _ 19.5 _ -1.9 _ 172 _ 091 ___(3) 98.0 _Sherkin Island

    Bsal ______________ 8.9 _ 18.7 _ -2.0 _ 150 _ 095 ___(18) 58.0_Oak Park

    Joe Public __________8.8 _ 21.3 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 120 ___(24) 29.0 _Roches Point

    Mr Stonewall _______ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -2.2 _ 092 _ 105 ___(5) 88.0 _Sherkin Island

    Rameire ___________8.7 _ 20.0 _ -1.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___(16) 65.0 _Valentia

    DOCARCH _________ 8.7 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 137 _ 088 ___(23) 42.0 _Valentia

    sryanbruen ________ 8.7 _ 18.9 _ -2.6 _ 160 _ 090 ___(19) 55.0 _Johnstown Castle

    Kindred Spirit ______ 8.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___(20) 54.0 _Valentia

    waterways _________8.4 _ 22.8 _ -2.0 _ 099 _ 109 ___(4) 95.0 _Sherkin Island

    ….NormaL _________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___(6) 85.0 _Mace head (31-03 12z GFS)

    Congrats to Kindred Spirit, Cornerstonelad, Rameire, Pauldry and DOCARCH for breaking 80 and to everyone for our impressive Con Sensus score of 90 (about second or third highest Con score ever, I believe).

    It could be a while until I can update annual scoring (on a road trip).




  • #58
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated Annual and Category scoring

    Rank _FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ TOTALS (J, F, M, A) __ Annual TOTAL

    now(prev) __ __ __ __ __ ___ ___ ___ ____ ____ ____ ___ ___ __ JAN _FEB _MAR _APR ___ (2024)

    ........... max possible scores ..100 _ 80 _ 80 _ 60 _ 40 __ 40 ____ 100__100_ 100 _100 ___ 400


    01_(01)__MrSkinner _______ 86 _ 39 _ 56 _ 41 _ 30 __ 32 ____ 64 __ 76 __ 78 __ 66 ___ 284

    02_(03)__ Dacogawa _______86 _ 57 _ 39 _ 34 _ 32 __ 32 ____ 69 __ 64 __ 73 __ 74 ___ 280

    t03_(02)__Gonzo __________92 _ 36 _ 57 _ 30 _ 28 __ 29 ____ 76 __ 71 __ 67 __ 58 ___ 272

    t03_(07)__Pauldry _________86 _ 39 _ 43 _ 44 _ 32 __ 28 ____ 75 __ 52 __ 64 __ 81 ___ 272

    4.7_(9.8)__ Con Sensus ____ 78 _ 39 _ 52 _ 42 _ 31 __ 28 ____ 72 __ 48 __ 60 __ 90 ___ 270

    t05_(06)_ Appledrop _______ 82 _ 50 _ 44 _ 31 _ 34 __ 28 ____ 72 __ 56 __ 66 __ 75 ___ 269

    t05_(09)_ Kindred Spirit ____ 75 _ 39 _ 63 _ 35 _ 27 __ 30 ____ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 85 ___ 269

    07_(04)__Artane2002 ______ 82 _ 53 _ 49 _ 28 _ 31 __ 25 ____ 77 __ 48 __ 75 __ 68 ___ 268

    08_(08)__Tae laidir ________ 78 _ 46 _ 38 _ 42 _ 26 __ 26 ____ 65 __ 51 __ 73 __ 67 ___ 256

    t09_(05)__M.T. Cranium ____ 83 _ 24 _ 42 _ 34 _ 32 __ 30 ____ 55 __ 74 __ 67 __ 49 ___ 245

    t09_(t10)__Jpmarn ________ 63 _ 54 _ 45 _ 35 _ 25 __ 23 ____ 78 __ 40 __ 61 __ 66 ___ 245

    11_(15)__Bsal ____________ 75 _ 16 _ 60 _ 33 _ 32 __ 28 ____ 59 __ 38 __ 70 __ 77 ___ 244

    12_(13)__sryanbruen _______69 _ 41 _ 43 _ 36 _ 33 __ 19 ____ 89 __ 38 __ 44 __ 70 ___ 241

    13_(14)__Dasa29 __________71 _ 22 _ 47 _ 40 _ 29 __ 31 ____ 41 __ 50 __ 78 __ 71 ___ 240

    14_(19)__Rameire _________ 70 _ 30 _ 27 _ 45 _ 35 __ 27 ____ 50 __ 43 __ 58 __ 83 ___ 234

    15_ (12)__john mac ________72 _ 18 _ 58 _ 27 _ 29 __ 24 ____ 67 __ 51 __ 59 __ 51 ___ 228

    16_ (t17)_Mr stonewall _____ 70 _ 52 _ 41 _ 17 _ 25 __ 22 ____ 66 __ 57 __ 40 __ 64 ___ 227

    16.3_(12.8)____NormaL ____ 61 _ 45 _ 40 _ 29 _ 30 __ 21 ____ 74 __ 52 __ 46 __ 54 ___ 226

    17 _(t20)_DOCARCH ________67 _ 24 _ 43 _ 39 _ 27 __ 24 ____ 49 __ 51 __ 44 __ 80 ___ 224

    18_(25)__Cornerstonelad ____ 62 _ 42 _ 48 _ 26 _ 17 __ 25 ____ 59 __ 29 __ 49 __ 83 ___ 220

    t19_(t20)_Sunflower3 _______72 _ 24 _ 26 _ 37 _ 31 __ 29 ____ 52 __ 44 __ 48 __ 75 ___ 219

    t19_(t20)__WolfeEire _______ 73 _ 25 _ 43 _ 32 _ 26 __ 21 ____ 68 __ 39 __ 37 __ 75 ___ 220-1 = 219

    21_(16)__waterways _______ 69 _ 16 _ 40 _ 37 _ 27 __ 25 ____ 64 __ 55 __ 47 __ 48 ___ 214

    22 _(t17)__Tazio ___________69 _ 36 _ 29 _ 31 _ 24 __ 20 ____ 57 __ 62 __ 44 __ 46 ___ 209-2=207

    23_(24)__Joe Public ________ 71 _ 32 _ 33 _ 21 _ 31 __ 11 ____ 56 __ 34 __ 51 __ 58 ___ 199

    24_(26)__200motels ________63 _ 38 _ 33 _ 24 _ 25 __ 10 ____ 66 __ --- __ 58 __ 69 ___ 193 (3/4)

    25 _(t10)__Adam240610 ____ 63 _ 17 _ 27 _ 25 _ 27 __ 20 ____ 75 __ 58 __ 46 __ —- ___ 179 (3/4)

    26 _(t20)__Esposito ________ 48 _ 14 _ 21 _ 21 _ 23 __ 17 ____ 71 __ 34 __ 39 __ —- ___ 144 (3/4)

    27_(27)__SleetandSnow _____21 _ 08 _ 02 _ 13 _ 06 __ 06 ____ 56 ___ --- ___ --- ____ 056 (1/4)

    28_(28)__Bazlers __________ 09 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 __ 04 ____ 33 ___ --- ___ --- ____ 033 (1/4)

    29_(29)__BLIZZARD7 _______03 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 __ 05 ____ 26 ___ --- ___ --- __ 028-2 026 (1/4)

    ________________

    Note: the only late penalty so far is in the last scoring row above.

    In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

    IMT __ one forecaster in first, three tied second, no third awarded.

    MAX __ one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    MIN __ one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    PRC __ one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    SUN __ one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    bonus _two forecasters tied in first, and one in third.

    ======================================

    Note: total of best category scores is 324/400.

    ___________________________-

    MrSkinner keeps the lead as Dacogawa advances to second … various high scorers in April all advanced several ranks.



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