April 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry

Around 60mm now in Valentia. This figure won't rise much more. Final figure will be the early 60s.

M.T. Cranium

Precip totals 1-7 April 

Valentia _______ 59.8

Johnstown C ___ 49.1

__ Cork _______ 40.1

Sherkin Is _____ 37.1

__ Moore Park __35.7

Oak Park ______ 31.7

Roches Pt _____ 28.6

__ Belmullet ___26.9

__ Claremorris _ 25.8

Athenry _______25.6

Knock ________ 25.0

__ Markree ____24.7

__ Newport ___ 24.2

Mace Head ____ 23.8 (Normal's forecast site)

Dunsany ______23.0

(no other unpicked locations currently above 23 mm)

(unpicked locations in list are indented)

Final updated list on Monday 8 April … for location scoring will give 3/3 for Valentia, 2/3 for JC, SI, RP, OP picks and 1/3 for rest, as all picks are in top portion of 25-location grid (didn't list all totals below Dunsany's 23.0). (later edit placed Oak Park and Roc es Point in 2/3).

Scoring for bonus (total precip 1-7 April)

FORECASTER ____ forecasts _______ amount (7) _ loc'n (3) sb _ TOTAL

Artane2002 ______60.0 _Johnstown Castle ___ 7 ____ 2 __ 1 ___10

Bsal ___________ 58.0 _Oak Park __________ 7 ____ 2 __ 1 ___10

Rameire ________ 65.0 _Valentia ___________ 7 ____ 3 __ 2 __ 12

sryanbruen ______55.0 _Johnstown Castle ____7 ____ 2 _______ 9

Kindred Spirit ____54.0 _Valentia ___________ 6 ____ 3 __ 1 __ 10

Appledrop _______66.0 _Sherkin Island ______ 6 ____ 2 _______ 8

Sunflower3 ______52.0 _Johnstown castle ____ 6 ____ 2 _______ 8

WolfeEire _______ 68.0 _Roches Point ________6 ____ 2 _______ 8

Dasa29 _________50.0 _Valentia ___________ 5 ____ 3 _______ 8

MrSkinner _______70.0 _Valentia ___________ 5 ____ 3 _______ 8

Consensus ______ 70.5 _ (Valentia) _________ 5 ____ 3 _______ 8

Tae laidir ________71.0 _Valentia ___________ 5 ____ 3 _______ 8

Dacogawa _______76.5 _Sherkin Island ______ 4 ____ 2 _______ 6

Pauldry _________77.0 _Valentia ____________4 ____ 3 _______ 7

DOCARCH _______42.0 _Valentia ___________ 4 ____ 3 _______ 7

Gonzo __________78.0 _Dunsany ___________ 4 ____ 1 _______ 5

Cornerstonelad ___79.0 _Valentia ____________3 ____ 3 _______ 6

Tazio ___________80.0 _Valentia ____________3 ____ 3 _______ 6

Jpmarn _________85.0 _Knock ______________2 ____ 1 _______ 3

….NormaL _______85.0 _Mace head___________2 ____ 1 _______ 3

Mr Stonewall ____ 88.0 _Sherkin Island ________2 ____ 2 _______ 4

Joe Public _______29.0 _Roches Point _________ 2 ____ 2 _______ 4

waterways ______ 95.0 _Sherkin Island ________2 ____ 2 _______ 4

200motels ______ 98.0 _Sherkin Island ________1 ____ 2 _______ 3

M.T. Cranium_____98.2 _Athenry _____________1 ____ 1 _______ 2

john mac ______ 104.0 _Sherkin Island ________1 ____ 2 _______ 3

(above are listed in order of error in amount, not total score)

M.T. Cranium

The above scoring is now final, with added location points for Oak Park and Roches Point which were given 2/3 as well as JC and SI, also one or two errors in table were fixed. The final values were just about identical to what I had calculated from yesterday's hourly values.

So the values after first week …

IMT _ 9.9 (+1.8)

MAX _17.0

MIN _ ???

PRC _ 183% of normal

SUN _ 83% of normal

bonus scored above in previous post. (59.8 Valentia)

M.T. Cranium

Not sure if it's actually the min so far but 1.7 on 8th was lowest I've noticed.

DOCARCH

High of 17.1c at Oak Park yesterday.

DOCARCH

High of 17.8c at Newport yesterday.

DOCARCH

Low of 1.0c at Moorepark yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks …

IMT _ 9.9 (+1.6) .. second week 9.8 (+1.4).

MAX _17.8

MIN _ 1.0 (possibly lower)

PRC _ 195% of normal, 207% of normal for second week

SUN _ 74% of normal, 64% for second week

bonus scored above in an earlier post. (59.8 Valentia)

pauldry

Min -0.8c Dublin Airport

Max probably tomorrow at 17c or 18c

Min could go lower still.

DOCARCH

Mount Dillon -1.1c yesterday.

Tae laidir

Newport Furnace 20.2 yesterday.

pauldry

Forgot the furnace is so warm in this set up.

DOCARCH

Newport back to 20.1c on the 'Yesterday's Weather' page on ME.

pauldry

Did we get 20c before England this year? Or did they get over 20c earlier this month?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122048926#Comment_122048926

Pretty sure they have had a 20c already IIRC….that's just from memory watching BBC weather every day.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122048926#Comment_122048926

England had 20C on the 6th, 11th, 12th and 13th.

M.T. Cranium

For some reason I picture Jerry Seinfeld saying "Newman!"

After 3 weeks of April …

IMT _ 9.54 (+1.2) .. second week 9.0 (level w Normal).

MAX _20.1

MIN _ -1.1

PRC _ 147% of normal, just 52% of normal for the third week … guaranteed about 105% (southwest Val and Shan are a little below end of April normals, the rest of our contest grid is generally just over already at around 110% … further rainfalls will therefore add to guaranteed value to reach final value current esti ate being 130% based on near average results now to 30th April).

SUN _ 92% of normal, 127% for the third week.

bonus scored above in an earlier post. (59.8 Valentia)

… April slowly reversing earlier very mild and wet start, but overall I wouldn't expect any of above to change a lot in remaining nine days including today.

__ Just getting ready to head off on a two-week visit to sunny south, flying this time, and planning some internet time in evenings especially around contest busy days but reporting could be slower than usual. __

DOCARCH

Low of -1.4c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

Although, lower this morning as saw -2c reported at Mount Dillon at 0600.

DOCARCH

-2.2c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

Tae laidir

Suggestion for bonus question.

Part 1. Total number of dry days (0.00mm PRC in yesterday's weather on Met.ie) for Dublin Airport for the month.

Part 2. Max number of consecutive dry days.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122075717#Comment_122075717

Sorry didn't see post before starting contest, will keep idea for later contest.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks of April …

IMT _ 9.14 (+0.6) .. fourth week 8.0 (1.3 below normal). could be 9.2 as a final value.

MAX _20.1, appears to be set

MIN _ -2.2, appears to be set

PRC _ 122% of normal, just 48% of normal for the fourth week … guaranteed about 117% (only Shannon was a little below average April total, and as of today is level … further rainfalls will therefore add to guaranteed value to reach final value current estimate being 135% based on observed and expected amounts today and 30th April).

SUN _ 98% of normal, 115% for the fourth week. Will probably finish around 95%.

bonus was scored above in an earlier post. (59.8 Valentia)

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary scoring for April 2024

_ to be adjusted 1st-2nd May __

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ BONUS ___ TOTAL

M.T. Cranium_______ 16 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 02 ____ 47

WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___19 _ 09 _ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 _77-1=76

Tae laidir __________ 21 _ 17 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 66

Jpmarn ____________23 _ 16 _ 06 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 ____ 68

Appledrop __________23 _ 14 _ 14 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 73

Gonzo _____________23 _ 11 _ 12 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 05 ____ 58

Pauldry ____________24 _ 17 _ 12 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 82

MrSkinner __________25 _ 09 _ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 68

Dacogawa __________25 _ 19 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 74

Cornerstonelad ______25 _ 18 _ 16 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 81

Sunflower3 _________24 _ 11 _ 13 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 76

Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ____ 68

… Con Sensus _______23 _ 17 _ 17 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 08 ____ 88

Dasa29 ____________23 _ 04 _ 18 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 72

Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 23 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 06 _48-2=46

john mac __________ 22 _ 00 _ 16 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 03 ____ 53

200motels _________ 22 _ 14 _ 17 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 68

Bsal ______________ 22 _ 06 _ 18 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 10 ____ 76

Joe Public __________21 _ 08 _ 20 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 04 ____ 58

Mr Stonewall _______ 21 _ 11 _ 20 _ 01 _ 08 ___ 04 ____ 65

Rameire ___________20 _ 19 _ 08 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 12 ____ 81

DOCARCH _________ 20 _ 10 _ 20 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 80

sryanbruen ________ 20 _ 08 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 69

Kindred Spirit ______ 19 _ 19 _ 13 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 10 ____ 83

waterways _________17 _ 00 _ 18 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 04 ____ 49

….NormaL _________ 17 _ 06 _ 17 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 55

=========================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Total prec 1-7, loc'n

M.T. Cranium_______10.1 _ 23.8 _ -1.5 _ 158 _ 100 ___(2) 98.2 _Athenry

WolfeEire ___ (-1) ___9.8 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 133 _ 100 ___(14) 68.0 _Roches Point

Tae laidir __________ 9.6 _ 20.4 _ -0.3 _ 145 _ 108 ___(12) 71.0 _Valentia

Jpmarn ____________9.4 _ 20.5 _ -0.8 _ 125 _ 105 ___(6) 85.0 _Knock

Appledrop __________9.4 _ 19.5 _ -1.6 _ 167 _ 093 ___(15) 66.0 _Sherkin Island

Gonzo _____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -1.4 _ 217 _ 082 ___(9) 78.0 _Dunsany

Pauldry ____________9.3 _ 19.8 _ -1.4 _ 130 _ 099 ___(10) 77.0 _Valentia

MrSkinner __________9.2 _ 21.2 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 100 ___(13) 70.0 _Valentia

Dacogawa __________9.2 _ 20.2 _ -2.6 _ 202 _ 086 ___(11) 76.5 _Sherkin Island

Cornerstonelad ______9.2 _ 19.9 _ -1.8 _ 155 _ 085 ___(8) 79.0 _Valentia

Sunflower3 _________9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___(21) 52.0 _Johnstown castle

Artane2002 ________ 9.0 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 185 _ 085 ___(17) 60.0 _Johnstown Castle

… Con Sensus _______9.0 _ 19.8 _ -1.9 _ 140 _ 097 ___ 70.0

Dasa29 ____________9.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___(22) 50.0 _Valentia

Tazio ___ (-2) ______ 9.0 _ 17.0 __ 0.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___(7) 80.0 _Valentia

john mac __________ 8.9 _ 22.9 _ -1.8 _ 104 _ 109 ___(1) 104.0 _Sherkin Island

200motels _________ 8.9 _ 19.5 _ -1.9 _ 172 _ 091 ___(3) 98.0 _Sherkin Island

Bsal ______________ 8.9 _ 18.7 _ -2.0 _ 150 _ 095 ___(18) 58.0_Oak Park

Joe Public __________8.8 _ 21.3 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 120 ___(24) 29.0 _Roches Point

Mr Stonewall _______ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -2.2 _ 092 _ 105 ___(5) 88.0 _Sherkin Island

Rameire ___________8.7 _ 20.0 _ -1.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___(16) 65.0 _Valentia

DOCARCH _________ 8.7 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 137 _ 088 ___(23) 42.0 _Valentia

sryanbruen ________ 8.7 _ 18.9 _ -2.6 _ 160 _ 090 ___(19) 55.0 _Johnstown Castle

Kindred Spirit ______ 8.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___(20) 54.0 _Valentia

waterways _________8.4 _ 22.8 _ -2.0 _ 099 _ 109 ___(4) 95.0 _Sherkin Island

….NormaL _________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___(6) 85.0 _Mace head (31-03 12z GFS)