What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

Isn't he in jail for fraud?

No wonder trump likes him.

If it works, it's all because of me. If there's something wrong with it, it's not because of me, even though it was my plan, but because they are destroying America.

And people say he's not a politician!!

Far from draining the swamp, he's become the swamp, and all the festering disgustingness that comes with it, bloated by his manky larvae, the MAGAtts.

It really boggles the mind the block-headedness of some of the GOP (Donnie included natually). They could have used Roe v. Wade as a campaign point for years and years and years, and gleaned some good will from the Evangelical loons without actually doing anything about it.

But then they went and killed Roe, and gave the hillbilly States the rights to do whatever swivel-eyed nonsense they fancied with reproducive rights. Even then…they could have just left it alone…but instead many of them went full Catholic Ireland on women's reproductive rights…and so here we are. We even have the nitwits publically declairing plans to try to make their abortion bans Federal.

So they've gone and used up of an electoral carrot that they could have used until the end of time, and have now instead gifted the Dems a reason for people to vote Democrat.

Their greatest ally this year would have been voter apathy, and I feel that they've bought themselves a double whammy of people voting against Anti-Choice policies and hated champion of them: Donald The Proven Rapist Trump.

What are the bookies basing this on?

According to the latest RealClear battleground polls, Trump is ahead in all but one of those states (Pennsylvania), where Biden leads by .1%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

Now, most of the leads in the battlegrounds states are within typical margins of error, so it certainly is not as if those couldn't flip for Biden, but it's not an encouraging trend of numbers at this point.

There are people who say those numbers will change as more people in the US become politically aware as the election gets closer. Has that kind of reversal happened much before, and at what time in the election year does it typically happen? After the conventions?

At what point, if the numbers don't change, should people become concerned?

and unsuccessfully at that. Kari Lake tried to denounce the activation of the 1864 law except everyone was quick to point out she proudly and on the record touted the law as being activated if the Supreme Court overturned Roe and how it would be a wonderful thing.

The economic argument will obviously be very important for moderate voters who are moderate in the sense that they don't really care who's in power so long as they're more chance of making money.

Trump has erroneously claimed that he built the greatest economy in history (because of course he would), completely ignoring the work that the Obama administration did to rebalance the books after the 2008 economic crash. It's an easy rebuttal to make whenever Trump waffles on about this. But in regard of what Biden has done for the US economy, how much of the 2021 recovery can be attributed to places just reopening after lockdown? As to jobs created after that, what quality are they? I remember David Cameron crowing about what his party had done for the UK economy, but it turned out a lot of the jobs created were bullshít zero hours things. Is Biden's administration falling into the same kind of trap, or are they proper jobs with benefits and decent pay and something to build a life around?

And I've seen this idea of the 'shy Biden voter' being mooted for states that would be considered red or Republican-leaning. It was definitely true that in the 2022 midterms, the Republicans were scuppered by voter pushback due to things like reproductive rights being on the ballot and the red wave was denied.

However, while the shy Biden voter may well be a thing, I don't think that it can be assumed that those people will turn out in November just because. If nothing else was learned from 2016, it's that complacency is a killer. Biden's campaign team must absolutely be pounding the pavement as if those swing state deficits are accurate.

Trump pretends to forget he had the RNC pull out of the commission on presidential debates after Biden whooped him senseless in the one and only debate in 2020

https://www.mediaite.com/news/bullsht-trump-rages-at-biden-with-baseless-crime-accusation-demands-debate-in-series-of-video-rants/

Very much so, if those polls are considered to accurate, but less so if the assumption sets in that the polls are incorrect and there's actually a large latent Biden base out there.

Gonna stick €200 on trump winning.

If he does, I'll make a few bob.

If he doesn't, I'd gladly lose the €200 to know he'll never be president again.

Beau of the fifth column called the GOP the dog that caught the car. It's a good description. Beau's worth watching excellent commentary.

The bookies are often wrong, as are the polls, well thats what I'm told whenever I post betting odds or a poll on here.

A week is a long time in politics and theres still 7 months to go to the election so alot can and will happen between now and then.

Alot of these states are hard to call, there are so many variables at play.

Trump needs to appeal more to the independent voter, but it looks like he wont change tack.

"Trump needs to appeal more to the independent voter, but it looks like he wont change tack"

Agreed. Hell, he's even ostracizing the regular republicans (Haley voters included).