Russia - threadbanned users in OP

This is a great point. There is definitely close to 1,000 dead or incapacitated per day otherwise you'd not be seeing such large numbers drafted. I wonder if this next batch of 150k is on top of the 30k a month Putin always recruits or if it's just the regular five months worth. It did say before the end of August which is 5 months.

3rd time lucky? Let's hope so, they're saying first half of 2024, which gives them three more months:

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia launched an attack to take Kharkiv.

Yip - i am anecdotally seeing on soc media ( no MSM mentioning it yet ) that there is a large uptick in citizens getting out of dodge leaving Kharkiv. Unfortunately its pretty much on the Russia border and has a population of about 1.5m. All these people will start moving west, so over the summer i would not be surprised seeing a further refugee flow into rest of Europe similar to post Feb 2022.

in general it is a numbers game. Ukraine has a population of 40m approx, Russia has a pop of 145m approx. russia has an authoritarian regime so less options to avoid getting dumped to the front line. Re population + lets use the word zero empathy for human life, just math & lack of value for life says russia is way ahead here. From reading up on Ukraine last good while it seems the majority of those fighting on the front lines have been doing so for the last two years without much break or replacement. Thats simply unsustainable. This summer is make or break - make for Russia, unfortunately big break for Ukraine :(

Also lets face it - Russia getting endless weapons supply from like minded allies + west STILL using & paying for much of Russia's oil etc. Ukraine NOT getting endless weapons supply from its "allies" 9 the west ) and also being hampered by the wests rules of DO NOT hit or attack Russia with western weapons etc

All this is leading me to conclude, when you factor in above - this was always doomed to fail for Ukraine. Unless the west / Ukraines partners step up like they havent done before, and even at that they might achive just holding the line. Manpower is the thing I think and the west / nato will not be supplying that in theatre

At the outset of the war if anyone predicted that Russia would lose all the manpower and equipment that they have no on would believe it. All the planes, helicopters, ships of all things, on top of catastrophic quantities of artillery shells and equipment, tanks etc.

Indeed if at the outset you said Russia would expend all that they have, people would be saying they would be in Warsaw now, not just Kiev. What Ukraine have achieved to date is incredible. Shame on the western world for their lack of support.

This war is so important, defeating Putin is so important, he is the figure head and facilitator for dictatorships around the world. I know that it's possible the US and NATO fear a broken up Russia with nuclear warheads in the hands of various factions, and maybe that forms part of the doctrine of support for defence rather than attack.

Overall we are watching a sea change in the shaping of world power and alliances. Alternative facilities and in the longer term renewables have and will reduce the power element of many nations including Russia. Would we have believed that Europe would be fine for two winters without Russian gas and oil? Europe will never again be dependant on Russian energy.

Sumy

Interesting article, especially that 80-90% of Russian losses are caused by drones.

It's a two-way street and indeed both sides can hurt each other with drones.

But I do think that the increases in geographical range and accuracy will help the Ukrainian side more. Russia can already strike all of Ukraine, but it is a new capability for Ukraine.

Also, Putin was keen that most Russians would be unaffected by the "special military operation" so not give it much thought. When the war comes to their cities or provinces, and affected their local economies or power supplies, more questions will be raised.

Ukraine has to fight, or they no longer exist.

Russia (outside of Putin's head) does not need this.

If in late 2022 when the Russians seemed to be collapsing you said that 18 months later the frontlines would hardly have changed at all no one would have believed it either. At many periods in the war predictions have been defied, gains have been halted.

Ukraine has done an amazing job against the barbarians but anyone who thinks the picture looks rosy right now (for either side) is fooling only themselves

While there are problems it is far from Ukraines darkness hour. Democracy will prevail.

Just a quick comment - Russia has bombed Kharkiv for two years, I doubt the Russia is very popular among the residents.

Lots of Russian ammo gone up in smoke

Speaking of the UAF, has anyone heard anything about how many combat aircraft they have available at this point? I’d presume that the Su-24 and Su-25 fleets are pretty depleted at this point, but it’d be interesting to know how many MiG-29s and Su-27s are still operational.

UAF for obvious reasons keep their equipment losses very quiet. No idea what they could be, and you cannot trust Russian figures either. I'd be assuming at this stage most of Ukraines neighbours have exhausted their supply of older soviet aircraft.